The Beginning of the End for Donald Trump

[CPUd]

The Beginning of the End for Donald Trump
Convention deadlock increasingly likely for GOP


For months, Donald Trump has led in polls, eventually piling up enough delegates to become a serious threat to win the Republican nomination in Cleveland in July. But now it appears that the wealthy businessman and reality television star’s candidacy is in jeopardy, the result of months of crude and childish comments, narcissistic behavior and contradictory policy pronouncements — as well as a more concerted effort by adversaries to deny him delegates.

No, Trump’s true believers certainly won’t desert him any more than he deserted Corey Lewandowski. They will continue to see Trump as the political messiah who has a clear-eyed view of the country’s problems and is uniquely prepared to solve them.

Those Trump supporters have bought into his view of government and into his message that only he stands with them. And they are absolutely certain that all of the criticism directed at him comes from the establishment, which is desperately trying to retain power, even if it means lying about him.

But that universe of Trump enthusiasts has not grown as it should if their candidate really was closing the deal on the Republican nomination. With his delegate lead and momentum, the widely disliked Ted Cruz as his major opponent, and the widely dismissed John Kasich largely irrelevant so far, Trump should have started to consolidate his support in the GOP by now. But he has not.

He appears to have made little effort to understand government, learn from history or process the complexities of public policy. And he makes so many mistakes because he does not think about issues before pontificating about them. Each time he opens his mouth, he either says something controversial or demonstrates his lack of knowledge and amateurish approach to government.

In early January, I raised the question of whether electability would become an issue later in the campaign. I noted that it seemed to be an issue in 2004, but I cited voices on both side of the question.

Clearly, as Amy Walter noted recently, Trump’s weak showings in hypothetical ballot tests against Hillary Clinton so far have not shaken his supporters. They’re still with him.

But the real prospect of a Trump nomination — and what that would mean for the presidential race and for the fight for the Senate and House — has helped motivate some Republicans to rally around alternatives they otherwise would dismiss. And now, there is growing talk about ways in which Trump’s opponents might derail him in Cleveland.

...

http://www.rollcall.com/news/rothenblog/beginning-end-donald-trump

 

[CPUd]

 

[Ronin Truth]

Or is it just the End of the Beginning? They both kinda look alike.

 

[Jan2017]

So Trump clinches first ballot nomination before June 7 and the finale Super Tuesday . . .
Duhnald needing 55.7% of delegates left after 2/3 of the total are now bound.

 

[CPUd]

Still too close to call. Maryland and PA are now in play for all 3 remaining candidates. Trump also needs to sweep in NY

 

[francisco]

So Trump clinches first ballot nomination before June 7 and the finale Super Tuesday . . .
Duhnald needing 55.7% of delegates left after 2/3 of the total are now bound.

Actually, that's too optimistic a figure for Trump's chances.

According to The Greenpapers, Trump now has 758 pledged delegates, and only 760 pledged delegates remain to be selected.

(1237-758) / 760 >>>> Trump needs 63% of remaining pledged delegates to arrive at convention with majority needed to win on first ballot.

Cruz currently has 505 pledged delegates and needs more than 93% of the remaining pledged delegates to arrive at convention with majority needed to win on first ballot.

There will be about 106 unpledged delegates at the opening of the convention, not counting any delegates that might be released by other candidates no longer running.
Cruz will probably get more of these votes on the first ballot than Trump will. But even if Cruz could count on all 106 unpledged delegates, he still needs about 83% of the remaining pledged delegates not yet selected to arrive at convention with majority needed to win on first ballot.

If Trump doesn't make it on the first ballot, almost certainly Cruz won't either.

Chances for a contested convention are significant.

Source for current delegate tallies:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R

 

[Mach]

Anyone that is Pro-contested convention is a Hillary supporter and they know it, it is their way of supporting her under the table and no amount of principle is going to change that, she is a guaranteed puppet.

The Neos are fighting for an exceptional split in the party, for some reason.

 

[jllundqu]

Anyone that is Pro-contested convention is a Hillary supporter and they know it, it is their way of supporting her under the table and no amount of principle is going to change that, she is a guaranteed puppet.

The Neos are fighting for an exceptional split in the party, for some reason.

I disagree with this entirely. I am not 'pushing' for a contested convention as I don't really give a shit anymore.... but I would like to see the GOP commit seppuku in front of a national audience. I most definitely do not support Hilldabeast... but a contested convention to deny Trump the nomination is better, in my opinion, than actually having Trump as President (not that he would win the General). Hillary clobbers Trump in a head to head... Sanders beats Trump by even wider margins.

Not that it matters who is our next president. Just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

 

[Petar]

My guess is that it's gonna end up with an ugly convention, and whoever the GOP pushes through (very unlikely to be Cruz) is going to lose really bad to Hillary Clinton.

Trump would have a great chance at beating her, and whoever denies that is.... stupid, or lying.

Hillary will then be President, barring some kind of indictment miracle (severely doubt it).

The only silver lining to all of this is that the GOP is going to end up being nearly smashed to pieces.

 

[undergroundrr]

Trump would have a great chance at beating her, and whoever denies that is.... stupid, or lying.

I deny it. Draw your conclusions.

No matter what happens, Hillary will destroy any of the current GOP choices. Polling supports this. You're welcome to deny the polls all the way to her inauguration day.

The GOP actually is best off to clear the slate and pick somebody completely different than the current crop of complete losers. Of course, it will be a bizarre miracle given their unending idiocy if they actually pick somebody who would beat her, but it's their only chance.

 

[Petar]

I deny it. Draw your conclusions.

No matter what happens, Hillary will destroy any of the current GOP choices. Polling supports this. You're welcome to deny the polls all the way to her inauguration day.

The GOP actually is best off to clear the slate and pick somebody completely different than the current crop of complete losers. Of course, it will be a bizarre miracle given their unending idiocy if they actually pick somebody who would beat her, but it's their only chance.

The observable fact is that the initial primary polls regarding Trump changed a lot once the battle got underway.

Trump has not had the chance to battle Hillary in a general yet, and the GOP is fighting tooth and nail to prevent that from happening.

The fact that you also want to prevent that from happening basically makes you a de-facto Hillary supporter.

 

[CPUd]

The only thing hurting Donald Trump is Donald Trump.

 

[undergroundrr]

The fact that you also want to prevent that from happening basically makes you a de-facto Hillary supporter.

Not supporting trump does not make one a Hillary supporter de facto or otherwise. In my view, running trump instead of a better GOP candidate enlarges Hillary's chances. But I would never call you a Hillary supporter.

One thing people don't spend much time considering around here (trumpie or otherwise) is the possibility that a significant portion of the GOP establishment is scared to death of Cruz and Trump because either one would lose so badly to Hillary. Whoever gets picked in a brokered convention will be neocon scum that I can't support, but I'm starting to conclude it's their only chance not to have her take office.

As an aside, you've called me and others stupid, a liar and a Hillary supporter in two consecutive posts. Have you considered other modes of expression?

 

[Bryan]

The fact that you also want to prevent that from happening basically makes you a de-facto Hillary supporter.

No it doesn't, and such an assertion just puppets mainstream propaganda. We are better than that here, we can do more than support a handful of evil choices.

 

[Bryan]

Anyone that is Pro-contested convention is a Hillary supporter and they know it, it is their way of supporting her under the table and no amount of principle is going to change that, she is a guaranteed puppet.

This looks very collectivist, and the logic does not hold up. An equal argument could be made that Cruz has better odds against Hillary and a contested convention would be the only way he could get the nomination.

 

[Bryan]

Trump would have a great chance at beating her,

On what facts do you base this statement on? And compared to others?

whoever denies that is.... stupid, or lying.

So if someone doesn't agree with your assertion then... stupid or lying?

Again, what are you basis this on? Even if you're looking at polls, they can be off too.

 

[enhanced_deficit]

Let's wait till facts settle, media owners and Wall Street front groups like "Club for growth" have so far not been right.

 

[FindLiberty]

Nervous... oh dear,

While there’s still hope for a course change, for this round,
the Wisconsin voters sure managed to shred Trumps dream to
make America grate again! And now this makes two Clintons
twice as likely, and by appointing Bill to become her VP she’s
got it all sewn up. Maybe it’s been the plan-in-the-bag all along.

If Trump gets squeezed out to let some other POS wannabe
POTUS on to the ballot, IDK but that sure would be a low blow
to the Trump supporters, voters, the entire GOP establishment
and probably intense pleasure for the future head of the Senate.

If Trump can just get the Republican nomination, it stays exciting…
However, Rand Paul would clearly be the best voice for Liberty
in the long run, even though Hillary would certainly win that election.

I hope the Clintons’ polling numbers don’t come back so close
that it require some huge influx of non-English speaking refugees
that are seeking ‘murikas free goodies in exchange for their votes
in November (by the party that promises even more free goodies).

If she can just stay in power and avoid jail time, Bill never
has to worry about any Constitutional chain rattling
about him not being able to serve more than two terms.

Oh, this is getting very interesting… The anti-Trump folks here
must be thrilled at the prospect of preventing authoritarianism
from gaining a huge orange foothold over American politics. lol

 

[CPUd]

George F. Will: Cruz' surge, Trump's slide is by design
By George F. Will
Posted: 04/06/2016 10:16:59 AM PDT | Updated: about 8 hours ago

...

Wisconsin has propelled Trump, a virtuoso of contempt, toward joining those he most despises: "losers." In the 1992 general election, Ross Perot, a Trump precursor, won 21.5 percent of Wisconsin's vote, above his 18.9 national average. Wisconsin's populist tradition is persistent and indiscriminate enough to encompass Robert La Follette and Joseph McCarthy. And evangelical Christians are less important in Wisconsin than in contiguous Iowa. Nevertheless, temperate Wisconsin rejected Trump, partly for the reason that one of his weakest performances so far was in the reddest state, Utah, where conservative Mormons flinched from his luridness. His act -- ignorance slathered with a congealed gravy of arrogance -- has become stale.

If, as seemed probable a month ago, Trump had won Wisconsin, he would have been well-positioned to win a first-ballot convention victory. Now he is up against things to which he is averse: facts. For months Cruz's national operation has been courting all convention delegates, including Trump's. Cruz aims to make a third ballot decisive, or unnecessary.

On the eve of Wisconsin's primary, the analytics people here knew how many undecided voters were choosing between Cruz and Trump (32,000) and how many between Cruz and John Kasich (72,000), and where they lived. Walls here are covered with notes outlining every step of each state's multistage delegate selection process. (Cruz's campaign was active in Michigan when the process of selecting persons eligible to be delegates began in August.) Cruz's campaign is nurturing relationships with delegates now committed to Trump and others. In Louisiana's primary, 58.6 percent of voters favored someone other than Trump; Cruz's campaign knows which issues are particularly important to which Trump delegates, and Cruz people with similar values are talking to them.

Trump, whose scant regard for (other people's) property rights is writ large in his adoration of eminent domain abuses, mutters darkly about people "stealing" delegates that are his property. But most are only contingently his, until one or more ballots are completed.

Usually, more than 40 percent of delegates to Republican conventions are seasoned activists who have attended prior conventions. A large majority of all delegates are officeholders -- county commissioners, city council members, sheriffs, etc. -- and state party officials. They tend to favor presidential aspirants who have been Republicans for longer than since last Friday.

Trump is a world-class complainer (he is never being treated "fairly") but a bush league preparer. A nomination contest poses policy and process tests, and he is flunking both.

Regarding policy, he is flummoxed by predictable abortion questions because he has been pro-life for only 15 minutes, and because he has lived almost seven decades without giving a scintilla of thought to any serious policy question. Regarding process, Trump, who recently took a week-long vacation from campaigning, has surfed a wave of free media to the mistaken conclusion that winning a nomination involves no more forethought than he gives to policy. He thinks he can fly in, stroke a crowd's ideological erogenous zones, then fly away. He knows nothing about the art of the political deal.

The nomination process, says Jeff Roe, Cruz's campaign manager, "is a multilevel Rubik's Cube. Trump thought it was a golf ball -- you just had to whack it." Roe says the Cruz campaign's engagement with the granular details of delegate maintenance is producing a situation where "the guy who is trying to hijack the party runs into a guy with a machine gun."

Trump, the perpetually whining "winner," last won something on March 22, in Arizona. Trump, says Roe, is now "bound by his brand rather than propelled by his brand." If Trump comes to Cleveland, say, 38 delegates short of 1,237, he will lose. Cruz probably will be proportionally closer to Trump than Lincoln (102 delegates) was to William Seward (173.5) who was 60 delegates short of victory on the first of three ballots at the 1860 convention.

Cruz's detractors say he has been lucky in this campaign's unpredictable political caroms that thinned the competition. But as Branch Rickey -- like Coach Bryant, a sportsman-aphorist -- said: "Luck is the residue of design."

George F. Will is a Washington Post columnist.

http://www.mercurynews.com/opinion/ci_29733133/george-f-will-cruz-surge-trumps-slide-is

 

[hells_unicorn]

The only thing hurting Donald Trump is Donald Trump.

So everyone else attacking Trump is a metaphysical illusion? I'm sorry, I'm not voting for any of these clowns, but this assertion has no connection with reality.