Suffolk keeps changing their numbers

[smtwngrl]

If you look at RCP, the numbers on the Suffolk Poll keep changing. Apparently, they are counting it as a two day poll. But they keep extending it for another day and then dropping the first day. Yet it's still listed as the same poll, instead of being listed as a new and separate one.

Yesterday morning, they had Ron at 14%, later in the day he was at 18%, and now he is at 17%.

It seems a little wacky that they are keeping the same poll and changing the numbers. And they are the one, last month, who listed Ron Paul at 8%, when all the others were 18-21%.

This morning, Ron is at 17%, and Santorum at 11%.

 

[KingNothing]

If you look at RCP, the numbers on the Suffolk Poll keep changing. Apparently, they are counting it as a two day poll. But they keep extending it for another day and then dropping the first day. Yet it's still listed as the same poll, instead of being listed as a new and separate one.

Yesterday morning, they had Ron at 14%, later in the day he was at 18%, and now he is at 17%.

It seems a little wacky that they are keeping the same poll and changing the numbers. And they are the one, last month, who listed Ron Paul at 8%, when all the others were 18-21%.

This morning, Ron is at 17%, and Santorum at 11%.

It doesn't make sense. For Ron to have been at 18-percent over the previous two-day period he had to be at 22-percent on the last day polled, which would be the first day of the current poll shown. For him to have moved down to 17-percent, he'd have to have been polled at 12-percent in their most recent day of polling. I don't see how that is possible.

 

[harikaried]

RCP did this with Gallup's daily national tracking poll. I think they just don't want to fill up the polling history with a single source. Even if they don't include the previous day polls, which would skew the RCP average, it's just a lot of clutter without not much changes. Although it would be a nice place to see the daily changes when looking back.

 

[BKom]

It doesn't make sense. For Ron to have been at 18-percent over the previous two-day period he had to be at 22-percent on the last day polled, which would be the first day of the current poll shown. For him to have moved down to 17-percent, he'd have to have been polled at 12-percent in their most recent day of polling. I don't see how that is possible.

I'll tell you how it's possible. Every cable news network has been bashing Ron Paul all morning. The best hours of their coverage were when they ingored him, moving from the leader to all those great candidates in third and fourth and fifth place. But every one of the morning shows had some comment about the spaceship landing for Ron Paul, or the old standby "he's crazy." It is sickening. And it will eventually have its intended effect.

I often wonder if there will ever be an actual, impartial news source in existence. But then my unicorn starts to whinny and I get distracted.

 

[KingNothing]

I'll tell you how it's possible. Every cable news network has been bashing Ron Paul all morning. The best hours of their coverage were when they ingored him, moving from the leader to all those great candidates in third and fourth and fifth place. But every one of the morning shows had some comment about the spaceship landing for Ron Paul, or the old standby "he's crazy." It is sickening. And it will eventually have its intended effect.

I often wonder if there will ever be an actual, impartial news source in existence. But then my unicorn starts to whinny and I get distracted.

But that isn't new. They always do that about Paul, and they always blast every candidate except Romney, but it hadn't hurt Paul two days ago. Why would it have hurt him yesterday?

 

[smtwngrl]

When I see Ron at 17% and Santorum at 11%, I start to be a little concerned. And not about Huntsman--his numbers are staying the same.

It's still 4 days until the NH Primary.

 

[BKom]

But that isn't new. They always do that about Paul, and they always blast every candidate except Romney, but it hadn't hurt Paul two days ago. Why would it have hurt him yesterday?

Because there is now less positive coverage. The newsletter thing is hanging out there, even though they're mostly not mentioning it. But when the media talking heads shake their heads and roll their eyes and make the crazy sign ever time Ron is mentioned, nobody wants to support the guy the media obviously hates. There has been a shift in tone. If Ron had finished ahead of Santorum in Iowa, nobody would be getting away with this stuff. Ron has to actually win somewhere before the coverage will give him a break at all. And nobody in the media sees any state where that's going to happen, so they feel pretty safe in dismissing him.

 

[Brett85]

What were the numbers yesterday for all of the candidates?

 

[smtwngrl]

Ah, only 9% of those polled were ages 18-34.

 

[pacu44]

When I see Ron at 17% and Santorum at 11%, I start to be a little concerned. And not about Huntsman--his numbers are staying the same.

It's still 4 days until the NH Primary.

Watch how the big moves will come after the debates now, along with the media push...

 

[smtwngrl]

What were the numbers yesterday for all of the candidates?

Romney-40
Paul-17
Gingrich-9
Huntsman-8
Santorum-11
Perry-1

 

[Forty Twice]

New Hampshire is one of the grayest states. I think Iowa was 13th and New Hampshire is 7th in median age. Texas is the youngest.

 

[Jason Sallee]

Suffolk/7News on 1/2/12:

Bachmann 3%
Gingrich 11%
Huntsman 9%
Paul 15%
Perry 2%
Romney 41%
Santorum 3%


Suffolk/7News on 1/5/12:
Bachmann 1%
Gingrich 7%
Huntsman 7%
Paul 18%
Perry 0%
Romney 41%
Santorum 8%


Suffolk/7News on 1/6/12:
Bachmann OUT
Gingrich 9%
Huntsman 8%
Paul 17%
Perry 1%
Romney 40%
Santorum 11%

 

[Brett85]

Romney-40
Paul-17
Gingrich-9
Huntsman-8
Santorum-11
Perry-1

That's today's. I see the poll from yesterday down below.

 

[nyrgoal99]

they are doing daily polling

 

[BKom]

Suffolk/7News on 1/2/12:

Bachmann 3%
Gingrich 11%
Huntsman 9%
Paul 15%
Perry 2%
Romney 41%
Santorum 3%


Suffolk/7News on 1/5/12:
Bachmann 1%
Gingrich 7%
Huntsman 7%
Paul 18%
Perry 0%
Romney 41%
Santorum 8%


Suffolk/7News on 1/6/12:
Bachmann OUT
Gingrich 9%
Huntsman 8%
Paul 17%
Perry 1%
Romney 40%
Santorum 11%

Sheesh. Looks like another Froth surge coming. And me having eaten breakfast already and all. At least I now have something in my stomach to throw up.

 

[Brett85]

Santorum is really aweful. I'm not voting for the GOP nominee this year unless it's Ron Paul, but Santorum as President would even be 1 million times worse than Romney as President.

 

[seawolf]

It is critical that Ron finish's second with over 20% in the Live Free or Die State. That way we will pick up some delegates at least and continue to be a top tier candidate going forward.

Having Santorum or Huntsman finish ahead of us in NH would be a disaster. First place for Paul at this point seems to be just too far away. 22 to 24% in most recent polls.

In addition, many NH Voters have already cast their ballots. Here is hoping and praying our Champion has two great debate performances over the weekend.

 

[tremendoustie]

If you look at RCP, the numbers on the Suffolk Poll keep changing. Apparently, they are counting it as a two day poll. But they keep extending it for another day and then dropping the first day. Yet it's still listed as the same poll, instead of being listed as a new and separate one.

Yesterday morning, they had Ron at 14%, later in the day he was at 18%, and now he is at 17%.

It seems a little wacky that they are keeping the same poll and changing the numbers. And they are the one, last month, who listed Ron Paul at 8%, when all the others were 18-21%.

This morning, Ron is at 17%, and Santorum at 11%.

No, that's the way they do it -- it's the same for the gallup tracking poll. They just replace the numbers. Suffolk isn't reliable in my opinion, but that's got nothing to do with the way they're being included on RCP.

 

[Jason Sallee]

Here is a graph for Ron Paul in New Hampsire...All of the polls:

The Suffolk/7News polls are kept separate.