State by state polling
- Thread starter enoch150
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FSP-Rebel
Mr. Republitarian
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Ewe
bluesc
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Simple. We were peaking in August. Everything went well, poll numbers surged and enthusiasm was at a highest level so far. Since then everything has got worse. The numbers reflect that.
Something needs to happen. Not sure the two foreign policy debates coming up are what I'm looking for.
Very few states have regular polling. New York hasn't had one since April. SC does have regular polling. The 12% was an outlier for that state. Most of them have been between 4% and 7%. The only other time he was out of that range was in a June 5th poll where he had 10%.
A
Arklatex
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Which is considered the most honest polling company?
bluesc
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My personal favorite is Gallup, because they always poll him highest
There's no way to tell until the first primaries have taken place.
I think this is more specific to the South East US. Cain and Gingrich look like they've picked up the most.
bluesc
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Look at the national polls. Even Rasmussen had us in double digits and 3rd, all of them did. We have stagnated in Iowa and NH. 12% ceiling.
Doesn't matter outside of places like Iowa and New Hampshire. Most states aren't polled very often. Most of the time it's Public Policy Polling. Quinnipiac University has done a few, too.
We've dropped 1.7% in the national polls, on average, since late August. I think that's entirely attributable to the loss in the Southeast.
bluesc
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I don't look at averages, I compare polls from the pollsters. Some have had him in the mid single digits with absolutely no movement for months. Most of them he has dropped ~2-3%, with one as much as 6%. He's losing support everywhere.
I don't see how it's possible for each individual polling company to have a decline of 2-3% with one dropping 6%, and yet have the average of all of the individual polling companies together only show a decline of 1.7%.
bluesc
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Because, as I said, half of them have had him in the low single digits with no movement. Fox being one of them. I dismiss them altogether.
Why would you just ignore half of them?
bluesc
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Ok, it's not half of them. One or two, the ones that show him at ~5% for months, while others show him at ~13%. Funny that the worst polls that have no movement come from Fox, and likely Frank Luntz.
I ignore those, because they are bullshit. They don't include independents, they only include people that voted in 2010 ect.
Added 2nd map. Might make it easier to decide where efforts should be focused. Also, deleted NY after taking a closer look at it. That poll included 6 candidates who either never entered the race or have since dropped out. (Giuliani, Palin, Huckabee, Trump, Pawlenty, and Daniels). A lot of the polls before October have 1 or 2 candidates who aren't in the race.
I think we need to help each other some how more on the local levels. Very few people around here have even heard of Ron Paul, we need non voters to find a reason to vote. We need the other half who already votes to be more introduced to his message. These are the elderly that get the news from local papers, radio, local news, and of course a lot of MSM telling them who to pick.
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