Should we not run a presidential candidate in 2016?

[Bastiat's The Law]

2014 possible senate races:

Alaska - Joe Miller
New Hampshire - FSP, smallish, one-term Democratic incumbent
South Dakota - Small (= cheap), relatively red state, Democratic incumbent
Montana - small, has some libertarian leanings, red state, SIX-term Democratic incumbent
Wyoming - least likely out of list, red state, 3-term GOP incumbent

Now this is thinking ahead and smart!

 

[TheTexan]

You give me a neg rep for pointing out to you that your idiotic assumption about conservatives was idiotic. You apparently wanted me to explain to you for the umpteenth time that you cannot categorize people like that. First of all, who are you talking about? Neoconservaties? Paleoconservatives? Social Conservatives? People who claim they are "conservatives" and aren't? People like Romney, McCain, Huckabee and Santorum? Who?

Neocons are not conservatives at all. They are leftist-progressives who left the democratic party and saw an opportunity to take over the conservative movement and did it. Some that go by "Social Cons" were brought into the Republican Party during Reagan's run, not because they believed in conservative principles, but because of their vote. Many of them are little different than big government leftists who are quite willing to use government force as long as it is used to cram their own agenda down everyone else's throat. Then there are the paleocons. These are the only real conservatives from where I sit. They believe in limited constitutional government, individual liberty, personal privacy, personal responsibility, a strong national defense, and "states' rights".

So no, you cannot just group all people claiming to be "conservatives" together with some blanket statement like you did. After Reagan, everyone in the damn Republican Party calls themselves a conservative. That doesn't make them one.

Semantics. I'm using the word "conservative" to refer to all people who label themselves "conservative."

Would you prefer me say "all fake conservatives" rather than "most conservatives" ? It doesn't matter. Given the context [obamacare] it should be pretty obvious who I'm referring to.

The simple fact of the matter, which you don't appear to be disputing here.... is that most people who call themselves conservative - regardless of if they actually are - do like most of Obamacare.

 

[GeorgiaAvenger]

The debate last night got me thinking that Rand should start debate practice NOW. He is already good at it, and in 4 years he can be great. There are things that will weight him down, but debates can lift him up(or weight him down further).

It needs to be his new hobby; it is for many people.

 

[whoisjohngalt]

The debate last night got me thinking that Rand should start debate practice NOW. He is already good at it, and in 4 years he can be great. There are things that will weight him down, but debates can lift him up(or weight him down further).

It needs to be his new hobby; it is for many people.

I have a very strong suspicion that he is already a few steps ahead of you.

 

[DeMintConservative]

2014 possible senate races:

Alaska - Joe Miller
New Hampshire - FSP, smallish, one-term Democratic incumbent
South Dakota - Small (= cheap), relatively red state, Democratic incumbent
Montana - small, has some libertarian leanings, red state, SIX-term Democratic incumbent
Wyoming - least likely out of list, red state, 3-term GOP incumbent

1. Alaska. Joe Miller? The guy who managed to lose to a write-in candidate? This seat is for Parnell if he wants it. A super gadfly like Miller is done politically. At least for federal/statewide office.

2. New Hampshire. Shaheen should be vulnerable in 2014, especially if Obama is re-elected and I don't see any obvious Republican candidate. The GOP bench is pretty weak there. I suspect this nomination will go for "rich self-funding businessman", a la Ron Johnson (there are plenty of them in NH).

3. South Dakota. I think Tim Johnson will retire. Kristi Noem, the current SD-(AL) representative will get the GOP nomination easily.

4. Montana. Baucus is in a relatively strong position. I think he'll make this a toss-up to start with. No obvious GOP candidate either. I suspect we'll have another Ron Johnson type here.

5. Wyoming. Are you serious? Unless Enzi retires, which doesn't seem likely, he'll win the nomination and the general election with +75% of the vote.


Here are some other potentially interesting seats:

6. Kansas. Roberts is a backbencher who will be 78 in 2014, has no path to a leadership position and no personal fortune (former military and congressional staffer). I think there are very good chances he'll retire to spend the rest of his life in a low-intensity lobbying job. I think Congresswoman Lynn Jenkins would be impossible to beat in a primary if she wants to run though. I'd be happy with her anyway.

7. Mississippi. Cochran is a dinosaur, in his 70s, whose raison d'etre to serve was alwasy the ability to get pork. With earmarking becoming verbotten in the last few years and with little hope it'll make a come back in the near future, I think there's a chance he retires. Guys like Palazzo and especially Gregg Harper would be almost impossible to beat in a primary though.

8. Oklahoma. Inhofe is another guy hitting his 80s. He probably retires. If Mary Fallin runs, it's her seat. If not, it's a decent opening for a small government candidate.

9. Minnesota. Al Franken. Minnesota loves their incumbents as long as they keep their head low but I suspect Franken is a more vulnerable one. The GOP would need to do a lot better than Bills though.

10. North Carolina. Kay Hagan hasn't been doing much to become unpopular, but she's still in a relatively vulnerable position, especially if Obama is re-elected. I have a hard time seeing a Paulite type winning a primary here though.

 

[GeorgiaAvenger]

I have a very strong suspicion that he is already a few steps ahead of you.

I sure hope so!

 

[Shane Harris]

The debate last night got me thinking that Rand should start debate practice NOW. He is already good at it, and in 4 years he can be great. There are things that will weight him down, but debates can lift him up(or weight him down further).

It needs to be his new hobby; it is for many people.

Its absolutely ridiculous but if he runs he will probably have to overcome his shortness (even more ridiculous than age, I know) because I think that definitely plays into the subconscious of the very idiotic and superficial voters in the USSA. How tall is he again? I just remember Ron was the shortest in the debates this year (at least he was shorter than Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich) and Rand makes Ron look tall.

 

[Bastiat's The Law]

What about Jim Forsythe in NH?

 

[sailingaway]

What about Jim Forsythe in NH?

I absolutely hope so.

 

[GunnyFreedom]

What about Jim Forsythe in NH?

Supporter here.

 

[GunnyFreedom]

1. Alaska. Joe Miller? The guy who managed to lose to a write-in candidate? This seat is for Parnell if he wants it. A super gadfly like Miller is done politically. At least for federal/statewide office.

2. New Hampshire. Shaheen should be vulnerable in 2014, especially if Obama is re-elected and I don't see any obvious Republican candidate. The GOP bench is pretty weak there. I suspect this nomination will go for "rich self-funding businessman", a la Ron Johnson (there are plenty of them in NH).

3. South Dakota. I think Tim Johnson will retire. Kristi Noem, the current SD-(AL) representative will get the GOP nomination easily.

4. Montana. Baucus is in a relatively strong position. I think he'll make this a toss-up to start with. No obvious GOP candidate either. I suspect we'll have another Ron Johnson type here.

5. Wyoming. Are you serious? Unless Enzi retires, which doesn't seem likely, he'll win the nomination and the general election with +75% of the vote.


Here are some other potentially interesting seats:

6. Kansas. Roberts is a backbencher who will be 78 in 2014, has no path to a leadership position and no personal fortune (former military and congressional staffer). I think there are very good chances he'll retire to spend the rest of his life in a low-intensity lobbying job. I think Congresswoman Lynn Jenkins would be impossible to beat in a primary if she wants to run though. I'd be happy with her anyway.

7. Mississippi. Cochran is a dinosaur, in his 70s, whose raison d'etre to serve was alwasy the ability to get pork. With earmarking becoming verbotten in the last few years and with little hope it'll make a come back in the near future, I think there's a chance he retires. Guys like Palazzo and especially Gregg Harper would be almost impossible to beat in a primary though.

8. Oklahoma. Inhofe is another guy hitting his 80s. He probably retires. If Mary Fallin runs, it's her seat. If not, it's a decent opening for a small government candidate.

9. Minnesota. Al Franken. Minnesota loves their incumbents as long as they keep their head low but I suspect Franken is a more vulnerable one. The GOP would need to do a lot better than Bills though.

10. North Carolina. Kay Hagan hasn't been doing much to become unpopular, but she's still in a relatively vulnerable position, especially if Obama is re-elected. I have a hard time seeing a Paulite type winning a primary here though.

It looks like there will likely be a primary fight in 2014 for US Senate between the current State House Speaker and my good friend Greg Brannon. Brannon will have a coalition of 'every Republican but the establishment,' having already won over the Tea Parties and the teapublicans etc. We have a better chance in NC that you realize, it will be mostly a matter of building a county-by-county grassroots network, and funding the media battle.

 

[sailingaway]

It looks like there will likely be a primary fight in 2014 for US Senate between the current State House Speaker and my good friend Greg Brannon. Brannon will have a coalition of 'every Republican but the establishment,' having already won over the Tea Parties and the teapublicans etc. We have a better chance in NC that you realize, it will be mostly a matter of building a county-by-county grassroots network, and funding the media battle.

It would help if you educate us about this person, so we are tracking him.

 

[Matt Collins]

that sounds like a 'Rand Paul movement' not a liberty movement,

Ron = Rand = Liberty Movement

 

[Matt Collins]

"Rand is the new Ron" - Matt Collins

But I thought he was his own man and it's not fair to judge him against his dad and you have to make room for different political realities?

I am not paid by rand.

And Rand's voting record is almost identical to Ron's.

 

[Matt Collins]

Its absolutely ridiculous but if he runs he will probably have to overcome his shortness (even more ridiculous than age, I know) because I think that definitely plays into the subconscious of the very idiotic and superficial voters in the USSA. How tall is he again? I just remember Ron was the shortest in the debates this year (at least he was shorter than Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich) and Rand makes Ron look tall.

There are ways to compensate for that

 

[Smart3]

What about Jim Forsythe in NH?

http://www.facebook.com/DraftJimForsytheForSenate2014

 

[LibertyEagle]

Semantics. I'm using the word "conservative" to refer to all people who label themselves "conservative."

Would you prefer me say "all fake conservatives" rather than "most conservatives" ? It doesn't matter. Given the context [obamacare] it should be pretty obvious who I'm referring to.

Ok. I'll start co-mingling people like Bill Maher, Glenn Beck, and oh yes, Dondero, when I speak of libertarians and see how well you like it. They refer to themselves as "libertarians" after all. lol. It would make as much sense as what you are doing.

The simple fact of the matter, which you don't appear to be disputing here.... is that most people who call themselves conservative - regardless of if they actually are - do like most of Obamacare.

Again... bullshit. That is not true at all and yes, I did dispute it.

 

[tangent4ronpaul]

Ok. I'll start co-mingling people like Bill Maher, Glenn Beck, and oh yes, Dondero, when I speak of libertarians and see how well you like it. They refer to themselves as "libertarians" after all. lol. It would make as much sense as what you are doing.

We should start floating before that crowd that the RP grassroots is forming the Libertine Party and movement and try to get them to embrace it...

VIVA LA LIBERTINES!

-t

 

[DylanWaco]

I am not paid by rand.

And Rand's voting record is almost identical to Ron's.

No, it isn't and no honest person can claim otherwise. Ron has been in office more than twenty years longer than Rand.

 

[Giuliani was there on 911]

Mehh, Christie's likley to die of a heart attack. Rubio doesn't scare me. Ryan doesn't scare me. After Dumbo gets re-elected the GOP is going to have to do some soul searching to figure out exactly why it didn't work out. I just hope that we're able to pass the buck on the blame to someone else besides us.

oh man LMAO