It looks like there will likely be a primary fight in 2014 for US Senate between the current State House Speaker and my good friend Greg Brannon. Brannon will have a coalition of 'every Republican but the establishment,' having already won over the Tea Parties and the teapublicans etc. We have a better chance in NC that you realize, it will be mostly a matter of building a county-by-county grassroots network, and funding the media battle.
I confess I've never heard of Greg Brannon. A cursory google search returns a Greg Barnon, MD who seems to be involved with local TP groups. Is that him?
Seems like a prototypical Some Dude to me. Can he self-fund? I understand he's your friend, but the success rate of not-self funding (read millionaire) Some Dude in statewide races for competitive seats is basically zero - starting with the primaries. Plus, if he's a "true believer" in Ron Paul platform, he'll struggle with a majority of the Republican base there.
As I see it, the primary will probably feature Thom Tillis, as you say: and, while you may not like him, defining him as "the establishment candidate", he was the leader of the GOP takeover of the House, he built a lot of good will (he quit his job to fundraise and campaign for local candidates all over the state). Plus, coming from Mecklenburg, he can syphon traditionally democrat votes in the general limiting Hagan's path to victory.
Then I suspect Patrick McHenry will be his major opponent (and probable winner).
Now, if besides these two, you also have, say, one of the congressmen we're going to elect this year running, plus some lower office holder like Steve Troxler - just a random example - then the field becomes so crowded that I can see a Some Dude Paulite winning the race. Otherwise, unless he's an extraordinary natural political talent, I wouldn't rate his chances as high as you.