Santorum's Surge over according to CNN - AC 360

[Peace&Freedom]

The phony Santorum 'surge' concocted out of a half a poll sample served its purpose, which was to protect Romney and push a second candidate other than Paul over the whole weekend through Monday. The idea was to suppress Paul by usually calling him 'the third guy' in what was otherwise a race between the two real newsworthy contenders, Mitt vs. Rick. MSM has NEVER wanted to talk up Paul as a frontrunner, since comparing him with Mitt extensively might cause too many defections of voters over to Paul. They also needed to talk up the other non-Romney to present the narrative that Paul was sinking to a weak third. That scenario was suggested 1,000 times in heavy rotation over the last two days, while the possibility that ROMNEY might land a weak third behind Paul and Santorum was scarcely mentioned.

The MSM will have profound egg on their faces if after all these tactics, all the Paul bashing, and all the Romney-centric coverage on the eve of the caucuses, Paul wins anyway, and Santorum pulls a second place finish. This will represent a double screw up on their part---first, they will have oversold Santorum to the extent that he actually overtakes Mitt, and secondly they will have made him look very shaky going into NH. Paul winning will enable him to get a strong second or even upset win in NH, depending on whatever genuine super-surge he gets out of IA, and gets a fighting chance to prevail in SC.

 

[helmuth_hubener]

I heard the MSM report that Thaddeus McCotter is now surging and will probably take Iowa. Quick, we need to vet him!

If Thaddeus starts to drop, it will be Buddy Roemer next. Then... is Lyndon LaRouche still alive?

 

[Liberty Shark]

What Matalin said confirms my suspicions from today that the Santorum "surge" has peaked and is disintegrating somewhat - or at least has stalled. Judging by everything today that I have read, heard, & observed, I am left with the impression that Dr. Paul is rising again in the polls.
Earlier today on Fox, the Special Report "all-star panel" or whatever they call it, which consisted of 3 "experts", none of the 3 picked Santorum to win. Two picked Romney, and the other picked Romney/Paul.

The key is going to be how accurate the polls are in terms of turnout. What is more likely:

a) The polls are underestimating Paul's support due to a number of factors such as not accounting for the intensity of support, and especially not measuring the younger people who use cell phones, not landlines.

OR

b) The polls are overestimating Paul's support. This just doesn't seem possible to me, but I've been wrong plenty of times before.

 

[Liberty Shark]

Which polls? I'm almost certain these polls would've showed up on these forums, and I sure didn't see any. If they're talking about the PPP Sat vs Sun (Santorum at 18 in both) or comparing one poll against another that really wouldn't say much. They'd need to have one and the same kind of poll, to ensure a consistent polling method, showing that he has percentage X 3-5 days ago, and still has percentage X today.

What I bet is going on is that they just don't see the "surge" on the ground. No enthusiasm at his rallies. No people knocking on doors for him.

From all of the polls that I've seen in the last 2 days, Santorum hasn't been above 20%. Therefore, the "surge" has stalled.

How about PPP, Insider Advantage, American Research Group? That's 3 polls since the DMR poll.

 

[Raudsarw]

I heard the MSM report that Thaddeus McCotter is now surging and will probably take Iowa. Quick, we need to vet him!

If Thaddeus starts to drop, it will be Buddy Roemer next. Then... is Lyndon LaRouche still alive?

Soon they will have to bring back the rotting corpse of Reagan to stop us.

 

[jax]

Just saw it. Jesus, they avoided ron pauls name like the plague. I heard every other canidates name, but not paul. Despite being in first

 

[helmuth_hubener]

Soon they will have to bring back the rotting corpse of Reagan to stop us.

Then we will copy their technology and will revivify Rothbard. The ensuing zombie gladiator battle will be very one-sided.

 

[seapilot]

a) The polls are underestimating Paul's support due to a number of factors such as not accounting for the intensity of support, and especially not measuring the younger people who use cell phones, not landlines.

This was thought to be true in 08. It was not. The polls were very close. I would bet it would be very close or the independents come out in force to tip the balance deeply for Ron Paul. The independents went for Obama in 08 and they are going to be the deciding factor for caucus night.

 

[ronpaulitician]

From all of the polls that I've seen in the last 2 days, Santorum hasn't been above 20%. Therefore, the "surge" has stalled.

How about PPP, Insider Advantage, American Research Group? That's 3 polls since the DMR poll.

I don't think there has been any poll yet where Santorum had surged in a previous poll and stalled in a current poll. (comparing apples to apples, so a PPP poll to a PPP poll, an ARG poll to an ARG poll, etc.)

I'd like to think he's stalled, but the number one factor in all of these surges has seemed to be favorability. If your favorability is high (which it will be until you move up, at which point you become a target), the undecideds all trend towards you. Paul's went down by about 20 points from the previous PPP poll to the current PPP poll. Santorum's was at a level similar to Paul's right before Paul's "surge".

I don't think I've seen real attacks against Santorum this weekend and/or gaffes by Santorum. I don't think his favorability will have dropped enough to account for a stalled surge.

Remember, these people just make stuff up. They may have no real source for their "stalled surge" claim.

 

[helmuth_hubener]

Exactly, it's all made up. And by making it up, they make it true. It's really kind of a very odd phenomenon.

 

[parocks]

What Matalin said confirms my suspicions from today that the Santorum "surge" has peaked and is disintegrating somewhat - or at least has stalled. Judging by everything today that I have read, heard, & observed, I am left with the impression that Dr. Paul is rising again in the polls.
Earlier today on Fox, the Special Report "all-star panel" or whatever they call it, which consisted of 3 "experts", none of the 3 picked Santorum to win. Two picked Romney, and the other picked Romney/Paul.

The key is going to be how accurate the polls are in terms of turnout. What is more likely:

a) The polls are underestimating Paul's support due to a number of factors such as not accounting for the intensity of support, and especially not measuring the younger people who use cell phones, not landlines.

OR

b) The polls are overestimating Paul's support. This just doesn't seem possible to me, but I've been wrong plenty of times before.

part of a) - the pollsters stopped calling everybody, and just started calling registered voters. If any campaign is expecting new voters, independents, democrats to register day of, it's Ron Paul.

 

[unknown]

This.

Follow the money. Jon Huntsman next?

That would be my guess.

I'm sure the support from the Rothschilds cant hurt.

He's running RP attack ads in NH and also came out against his economic policy.

 

[69360]

I heard the MSM report that Thaddeus McCotter is now surging and will probably take Iowa. Quick, we need to vet him!

If Thaddeus starts to drop, it will be Buddy Roemer next. Then... is Lyndon LaRouche still alive?

Faux news just reported Jimmy Mcmillan is surging late in IA and they expect him to be a frontrunner soon.

 

[goldwater's ghost]

first the surge, then the purge

 

[WD-NY]

The MSM is sure trying in NH, we have to vet him or it will be Santorum all over, no time to vet.

Huntsman will be the Santorum of NH. Same bullshit story will be recycled too ("Huntsman worked hard for this surge, having visited NH more than any other candidate..blah blah blah).

It's all part of the plan

Lucky for us, I think he may have stumbled with that "Twighlight Zone" attack ad against Ron... voters in NH who are going back and forth between Huntsman and Paul know exactly what Paul was speaking to with his anti-intervention answers...

 

[69360]

I just kinda chuckle quietly to myself when msm tries to convince us that large numbers of people will vote for frothy or huntsman. The idea is ridiculous.

 

[Johncjackson]

The media was pumping up Huntsman before he even entered the race. He was supposed to fill the role of the "electable" anti-Romney. He's the only one who never really got a "surge" as well as the only one of the media candidates who seems to be able to express a coherent thought and isn't completely unlikable. I don't know if he's running for a Job or Americans Elect.

 

[Canderson]

What do you guys think would be the best strategy to ensure Johnson goes after Romney rather than Paul?

 

[ronpaulitician]

What do you guys think would be the best strategy to ensure Johnson goes after Romney rather than Paul?

You mean John Huntsman (to go after Romney)?

I don't think there is one. Huntsman will follow the same strategy in NH that Paul followed in Iowa: go after the number 2 guy. Make yourself the only remaining not-Romney candidate.

Paul is a strong second in NH. Huntsman will go after Paul.

 

[Paulatized]

You mean John Huntsman (to go after Romney)?

I don't think there is one. Huntsman will follow the same strategy in NH that Paul followed in Iowa: go after the number 2 guy. Make yourself the only remaining not-Romney candidate.

Paul is a strong second in NH. Huntsman will go after Paul.

He has already started running attack ads on Ron Paul in New Hampshire. Fighting for that #2 position.