Ron Paul can still get 2nd in NV. Here's the math.

[thelaibon]

What can be done about voter fraud? Realistically. Not a rhetorical question.

 

[carterm]

I think a more plausible explanation is that they tampered with 3% of the votes in that county to screw over Ron Paul. Nobody would notice 2-3% distortion.

entrance polls in washoe had newt up 26-22. real result, 28-17.

wtf.

 

[Mark37snj]

What can be done about voter fraud? Realistically. Not a rhetorical question.

Move honest people into those positions. It's happening now, but it ain't gona happen overnight. We can also declare

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNxCvDYpmxE&feature=related

 

[affa]

entrance polls in washoe had newt up 26-22. real result, 28-17.

wtf.

hey now, when polls match results it's proof there was no tampering. and when they're off, well, it's because it's just a poll. right guys?

 

[carterm]

hey now, when polls match results it's proof there was no tampering. and when they're off, well, it's because it's just a poll. right guys?

valid point, although i see no need for reason right now

 

[Lord Xar]

Since RP is polling higher via exit polling for this county, MAYBE he'll jump an extra 7% like newt did in the already reported one.

Or are the jumps only for the status quot candidates?

 

[Mark37snj]

Since RP is polling higher via exit polling for this county, MAYBE he'll jump an extra 7% like newt did in the already reported one.

Or are the jumps only for the status quot candidates?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8bfgrj_62-Y

 

[Peace&Freedom]

hey now, when polls match results it's proof there was no tampering. and when they're off, well, it's because it's just a poll. right guys?

There is the theory that the same establishment that's producing biased coverage (including skewed polling they've sponsored) also control the vote 'verification' process (to deliberately make it line up with the skewed polls). So when polls match the results it IS proof of tampering, and when they're off, it's because they goofed up.

 

[georgia_tech_swagger]

Alrighttttttt now we're starting to get the first trickle of Clark and the Paul increase and Newt decrease begins.

Current #NVCaucus results with 56% of precincts reporting:
Gingrich: 23.7%, Paul: 18.7%, Romney: 45.5%, Santorum 11.9%, No Vote: 0.2%

That tweet was from about 15 mins before this post.

Increase of 10% of precincts yields Newt -2.3% and Paul +0.3% and Romney +3% and Froth +1%.

Keep that trend up and Paul finishes 2nd.

 

[georgia_tech_swagger]

Current #NVCaucus results with 70.4% of precincts reporting:
Gingrich: 22.6%, Paul: 18.6%, Romney: 47.6%, Santorum 11.1%, No Vote: 0.2%

Ouch. That update is probably the clincher. I'm so disappointed with third.

 

[georgia_tech_swagger]

+15% precincts yields:
Gingrich -0.1% ... Paul -0.1% ... Romney +2.1% ... Frothy -0.8%

 

[georgia_tech_swagger]

It will take a SERIOUS margin of victory in the final 30% of precincts ... think Paul up nearly 10%.

 

[georgia_tech_swagger]

With 50% of Clark in Ron Paul's margin over Grinch is only 3.4%. Just not enough. Need to be nearly double that.

 

[RPit]

You have to remember percent of precincts does not represent percent of votes. Its possible that the remaining precincts have significant number of votes compared to the other 50%... So we'll have to see.

 

[The_Ruffneck]

You have to remember percent of precincts does not represent percent of votes. Its possible that the remaining precincts have significant number of votes compared to the other 50%... So we'll have to see.

Isn't this more likely because you would think the precincts with the most votes are the ones that take longer to count (and recount)

 

[georgia_tech_swagger]

You have to remember percent of precincts does not represent percent of votes. Its possible that the remaining precincts have significant number of votes compared to the other 50%... So we'll have to see.

Plausible ... but 2nd place is on serious life support at best.

 

[georgia_tech_swagger]

So right now we have 5.8% reporting out of Clark.

Romney 54.7%
Ron Paul 21.5%
Grinch 15.9%
Frothy 7.8%
Total Votes: 844

In 2008 there were 23,844 votes cast out of Clark. There were 44,315 total votes cast. So Clark was 53.8% of the total vote. Assuming that percentage holds, given 18,213 cast from all of non-Clark counties which are at 100% now ... there should be about 38,817 total ballots cast (as I said, down from last year). From this 31,817, we subtract 18,213 to get 20,604 ballots in Clark County. We remove 844 already cast to get 19,804 remaining. Now we apply the above percentages.

Romney: 19,804 * 54.7% = 10,833 + existing 7,884 = 18,717
Ron Paul: 19,804 * 21.5% = 4,258 + existing 3,460 = 7,718
Grinch: 19,804 * 15.9% = 3,149 + existing 4,623 = 7,772
Frothy: 19,804 * 7.8% = 1,545 + existing 2,246 = 3,791

Man it is going to be CLOSE on second. In fact, the above margin doesn't even include the Adelson caucus where Ron Paul blew out everybody and gained over 100 votes in Grinch. That caucus alone would put Paul over the top with this math.

Currently with 50% of precincts in Romney has 5,133. I expected him to have 10,833. Readjusting for his current 57.4% pull he should have 11,367. So assuming my percentage guessing holds for the portion of the vote out of Clark and total turnout ... then that means the 50% currently in from Clark represents 45.15% of the expected vote in from Clark. So that hurts the "lesser vote count" precinct theory.

 

[Matthew Zak]

Here's why we didn't win, from the CNN entrance polls:

17-29: 8% of the voters (40% of those went for Ron Paul)
30-44: 15% of the voters (32% for Paul)
45-64: 42% of the voters (16% for Paul)
65+: 35% of the voters (11% for Paul)

If the young Ron Paul supporters want to help him win, more of them need to actually turn out to vote.

What if that is all of them? 40% is no joke.

 

[fearthereaperx]

Newt Dropped 3.4% from 26.0(48% reporting) to 22.6(70.2% reporting)

add another 29% to the final precincts reporting tally, and if the trend is the exact same, we would be within less than a percentage point from Gingrich.

 

[georgia_tech_swagger]

Newt Dropped 3.4% from 26.0(48% reporting) to 22.6(70.2% reporting)

add another 22% drop, and if the trend is the exact same, we would be within less than a percentage point from Gingrich.

Most of that change was from 48% to 56%. From 56% to 70% was almost a wash.... garbage.