freneticentropy
Member
- Joined
- Dec 23, 2011
- Messages
- 256
They're saying it could take all night. May as well get some sleep.
If they don't want to report it, they won't report it. They don't need "it was too late" as an excuse. They don't give a fuck about having a plausible explanation.
georgia_tech_swagger
Member
- Joined
- Jul 5, 2007
- Messages
- 356
So right now we have 5.8% reporting out of Clark.
Romney 54.7%
Ron Paul 21.5%
Grinch 15.9%
Frothy 7.8%
Total Votes: 844
In 2008 there were 23,844 votes cast out of Clark. There were 44,315 total votes cast. So Clark was 53.8% of the total vote. Assuming that percentage holds, given 18,213 cast from all of non-Clark counties which are at 100% now ... there should be about 38,817 total ballots cast (as I said, down from last year). From this 31,817, we subtract 18,213 to get 20,604 ballots in Clark County. We remove 844 already cast to get 19,804 remaining. Now we apply the above percentages.
Romney: 19,804 * 54.7% = 10,833 + existing 7,884 = 18,717
Ron Paul: 19,804 * 21.5% = 4,258 + existing 3,460 = 7,718
Grinch: 19,804 * 15.9% = 3,149 + existing 4,623 = 7,772
Frothy: 19,804 * 7.8% = 1,545 + existing 2,246 = 3,791
Man it is going to be CLOSE on second. In fact, the above margin doesn't even include the Adelson caucus where Ron Paul blew out everybody and gained over 100 votes in Grinch. That caucus alone would put Paul over the top with this math.
Romney 54.7%
Ron Paul 21.5%
Grinch 15.9%
Frothy 7.8%
Total Votes: 844
In 2008 there were 23,844 votes cast out of Clark. There were 44,315 total votes cast. So Clark was 53.8% of the total vote. Assuming that percentage holds, given 18,213 cast from all of non-Clark counties which are at 100% now ... there should be about 38,817 total ballots cast (as I said, down from last year). From this 31,817, we subtract 18,213 to get 20,604 ballots in Clark County. We remove 844 already cast to get 19,804 remaining. Now we apply the above percentages.
Romney: 19,804 * 54.7% = 10,833 + existing 7,884 = 18,717
Ron Paul: 19,804 * 21.5% = 4,258 + existing 3,460 = 7,718
Grinch: 19,804 * 15.9% = 3,149 + existing 4,623 = 7,772
Frothy: 19,804 * 7.8% = 1,545 + existing 2,246 = 3,791
Man it is going to be CLOSE on second. In fact, the above margin doesn't even include the Adelson caucus where Ron Paul blew out everybody and gained over 100 votes in Grinch. That caucus alone would put Paul over the top with this math.
DamianTV
Member
- Joined
- Dec 7, 2007
- Messages
- 20,677
That is a Far Cry from the expected 8% reported by the MSM. What it doesnt tell, and no one knows yet, is how many Delegates are ours!
At this point, I'm about half-convinced that nobody really gets it.
laura myers @lmyerslvrj Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Source: 9,000+ votes counted in Clark: Romney 60%, Gingrich 16%, Paul 16%, Santorum 7%. About 70 votes separate Paul, Gingrich.
This was a tweet from this morning I posted. I hope the source was wrong. Otherwise, checkmate.
Source: 9,000+ votes counted in Clark: Romney 60%, Gingrich 16%, Paul 16%, Santorum 7%. About 70 votes separate Paul, Gingrich.
This was a tweet from this morning I posted. I hope the source was wrong. Otherwise, checkmate.
Student Of Paulism
Member
- Joined
- Nov 21, 2011
- Messages
- 1,196
AlexMerced, Sailing, and LibertyEagle do (i think) lol
opinionatedfool
Member
- Joined
- Oct 31, 2011
- Messages
- 2,340
I'll see if I can make it. I'll have to see what show I can stream from Hulu or somewhere.
Here's why we didn't win, from the CNN entrance polls:
17-29: 8% of the voters (40% of those went for Ron Paul)
30-44: 15% of the voters (32% for Paul)
45-64: 42% of the voters (16% for Paul)
65+: 35% of the voters (11% for Paul)
If the young Ron Paul supporters want to help him win, more of them need to actually turn out to vote.
17-29: 8% of the voters (40% of those went for Ron Paul)
30-44: 15% of the voters (32% for Paul)
45-64: 42% of the voters (16% for Paul)
65+: 35% of the voters (11% for Paul)
If the young Ron Paul supporters want to help him win, more of them need to actually turn out to vote.
According to the entrance polls, Newt only won non-Clark by 4%, and yet the results say 8%. The entrance polls also have Paul only winning clark by 3% over Newt.
georgia_tech_swagger
Member
- Joined
- Jul 5, 2007
- Messages
- 356
From another thread, extrapolating Clark's result assuming 5.8% of precincts but only 4% of votes, and using the vote totals here,
http://www.nvgopcaucus.com/results
I got,
Romney...48.9% 16,620
Gingrich...20.8% 7,071
Paul........20.0% 6,811
Santorum.10.3% 3,504
http://www.nvgopcaucus.com/results
I got,
Romney...48.9% 16,620
Gingrich...20.8% 7,071
Paul........20.0% 6,811
Santorum.10.3% 3,504
Then add 100 votes for Paul from the Jewish caucus.
Check again. The tweet was 11 hours ago. She posted it this morning.
georgia_tech_swagger
Member
- Joined
- Jul 5, 2007
- Messages
- 356
That would be game over and by several thousand votes. Newt outperformed entrance polling in Washoe by 3% and Paul underperformed by 2%. If that were accurate in Clark it would be about the same thing ... Newt outperforming by 2% and Ron Paul underperforming by 1%.
The Paul campaign has failed epicly today in turning out the vote in Nevada. They said they had ID'ed more supporters than Romney had votes in '08. That means they are batting around 0.400 tonight on GOTV. TERRIBLE.
floridasun1983
Member
- Joined
- Jan 1, 2012
- Messages
- 463
You hit the nail on the head. All this talk about how great our organization is, blah blah blah. Its not translating into anything when it counts. Something is seriously wrong here.
I think a more plausible explanation is that they tampered with 3% of the votes in that county to screw over Ron Paul. Nobody would notice 2-3% distortion.
Similar threads
