C
Chiznaddy
Guest
Nevada's mormon population is 6.8%
http://www.mymanmitt.com/mitt-romney/2008/01/cynical-nevada-read_18.asp
According to CNN's exit polls 26% of Nevada caucus goers were mormon and 95% of them voted for Romney.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#NVREP
Mr. Romney, who said himself that his religion should not affect his campaign, obviously paid big bucks to make sure a disproportionate amount of mormons showed up at the Nevada caucus.
Also, consider that Republicans suspiciously had a significantly larger number of votes than democrats, in a state that is spilt 40% each way.
This means that 19% of the votes cast at the Nevada caucuses are unrepresentative of the true voter sentiment in the state.
Take that 19% of mormons that are over-represented times 95% that voted for Romney, minus the 3% average that voted for either Paul or McCain. That means Romney's total should really only have been almost 18% lower than the 52% that he has currently registered.
Now, Romney in essence only got 34% of the vote. So, with 79% of the precincts reporting, Romney should have 11,929 votes, not 18,200 [18,000 - 6,271 (34,839 total votes x disproportionate mormon votes of 18%)].
More significantly, that means Paul's 4,563 votes (with 79% reporting) is really 16%.
http://www.mymanmitt.com/mitt-romney/2008/01/cynical-nevada-read_18.asp
According to CNN's exit polls 26% of Nevada caucus goers were mormon and 95% of them voted for Romney.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#NVREP
Mr. Romney, who said himself that his religion should not affect his campaign, obviously paid big bucks to make sure a disproportionate amount of mormons showed up at the Nevada caucus.
Also, consider that Republicans suspiciously had a significantly larger number of votes than democrats, in a state that is spilt 40% each way.
This means that 19% of the votes cast at the Nevada caucuses are unrepresentative of the true voter sentiment in the state.
Take that 19% of mormons that are over-represented times 95% that voted for Romney, minus the 3% average that voted for either Paul or McCain. That means Romney's total should really only have been almost 18% lower than the 52% that he has currently registered.
Now, Romney in essence only got 34% of the vote. So, with 79% of the precincts reporting, Romney should have 11,929 votes, not 18,200 [18,000 - 6,271 (34,839 total votes x disproportionate mormon votes of 18%)].
More significantly, that means Paul's 4,563 votes (with 79% reporting) is really 16%.