Reuters/Ipsos SC Poll: Ron Paul tied for second at 16% [QUESTIONABLE SAMPLE]

[Rincewind]

From the 5 polls I've seen the last couple days:
Romney: 28-37%
Gingrich: 12-25%
Paul: 9-20%
Santorum: 7-16%

I'm not sure how to explain those kinds of spreads.

 

[ghengis86]

i'll take it

 

[zerosdontcount]

This poll definitely seems to be an outlier, except for Paul's numbers.

 

[Karsten]

Because I trust PPP more.

PPP had us leading in Iowa in their final poll, when everyone else did not. Every poll is flawed, and no poll is 100% on the money. A poll may say it can say with 95% confidence that the numbers are correct within a 4% margin of error. Well that means that 5% of the time, the numbers are wrong even more than the margin of error (this might have happened in that infamous Santorum CNN poll). All polls are fallible unless God himself is conducting them.

 

[Karsten]

From the 5 polls I've seen the last couple days:
Romney: 28-37%
Gingrich: 12-25%
Paul: 9-20%
Santorum: 7-16%

I'm not sure how to explain those kinds of spreads.

The 9% and 20% were both from ARG, i think, and we're clearly now at the high end of that.

 

[Karsten]

Yesterday Gingrich was at 24% and now he is at 12%... yeah right. This poll is complete BS.

Remember Iowa. It's very possible for a candidate to surge or crash quickly.
And, when someone is rapidly rising or falling, it's hard to capture an accurate at the moment picture, and numbers can be all over the place. We saw that in all the many surges and crashes in Iowa this past year. I'm inclined to think (hope) Gingrich is really crashing. As IA and NH has shown, I think, a distant but solid 2nd is much better than a close 3rd.

 

[centure7]

Its still downright shocking to see polls where we go from 4th to 2nd in a mere few days.

But then again look what happened with Cain, Perry, and Gingrich. They all made their 1st place status in about two weeks time. As it so happens there is just under two weeks from New Hampshire to South Carolina. (though its not completely coincidental, the timing was designed to allow for momentum to pass from one state to another).

It actually looks like Paul has some shot at 2nd place. The campaigns apparent strategy to isolate them selves with Romney before going for the kill is going perfectly.

I doubt the poll is entirely right but I hope it is.

 

[Greg Buchanan]

I know why Newt went down mitt romeny's super PAC just spent over 7 million against new Gingrich in 10 days, super PAC called Restore Our Future..

That about sums it up, Mitt's super PAC is hitting Santorum hard as well.

 

[tremendoustie]

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=253637

Romney: 37%
Paul: 16%
Santorum: 16%
Gingrich 12%


I don't know what to think of this one. I have a hard time believing Romney is that high and Gingrich that low, but I also believe we are in the middle of a Ron Paul surge and things could shift.

Wow. Yeah, these polls just don't line up. One has Gingrich within 4 of Romney, and this one has him 25% out.

Someone's screwing up big time. Perhaps both are.

Glad to see RP in the 2 spot, however.

 

[jkob]

Looks like New Hampshire, ugh. Hard to believe Romney is that high.

 

[Karsten]

Looks like New Hampshire, ugh. Hard to believe Romney is that high.

A distant 2nd is perceived as better than a close 3rd. I'll take it, if we push to 2nd and Romney is on top.
Of course, I'd rather have first, but 2nd to Romney is fine. We need to be the anti-Romney candidate.

 

[SchleckBros]

1. conducted online
2. registered voters rather than likely voters

This poll is crap.

 

[Karsten]

1. conducted online
2. registered voters rather than likely voters

This poll is crap.

Didn't know that. Perhaps it is, then.

 

[pauliticalfan]

Yeah, I'm getting word from Nate Silver that it was an online poll of registered, not likely, voters. He seems to be dismissing it. So make of this poll what you will.

 

[VictorB]

I can't see Romney cracking the high 20s in SC, let alone 30%. If we can get 24-25% then we win SC, IMO.

 

[Epic]

Need a source for the conducted online notion.

Reuters/Ipsos are generally telephone calls, and included in RCP average.

 

[SchleckBros]

Need a source for the conducted online notion.

Reuters/Ipsos are generally telephone calls, and included in RCP average.

Nate Silver from the NYT tweeted it.

 

[JohnGalt23g]

Yeah. This poll smells like an outlier to me.

 

[tremendoustie]

1. conducted online
2. registered voters rather than likely voters

This poll is crap.

Conducted online = crap (at least as far as representing real voter percentages goes).

 

[Liberty74]

If we look at this poll in a bubble it would seem that Gingrich is falling and his support is going to Romney.

Gingrich is probably taking a beating from Rush and the Party for going after Romney on capitalism whether legit or not.