Republican presidential candidates in 2016 (Reuters 5-Day Rolling poll)

[jkob]

MOE but nice to see Rand over Cruz, don't think things are really moving in a positive direction. Stuck around 5% give or take.

 

[Liberty74]

MOE but nice to see Rand over Cruz, don't think things are really moving in a positive direction. Stuck around 5% give or take.

A moving average UP indicates a SURGE lol. Seriously, if at 5.6% now and that is an "average" over 5 days, would that not mean Rand is polling higher than 5% in the last few day(s)? I think that's how it works.

 

[erowe1]

Time to wake up guys...Rand isn't getting the nom.

You're basing this on poll numbers 4 months before the Iowa caucuses?

Who do you think is going to win the nomination then? Trump? Carson? Come on man. Shake yourself out of it.

 

[erowe1]

A moving average UP indicates a SURGE lol. Seriously, if at 5.6% now and that is an "average" over 5 days, would that not mean Rand is polling higher than 5% in the last few day(s)? I think that's how it works.

No. If his numbers differed from one day to the next, it's just as possible that the higher numbers were in the early days and lower in the later as vice versa. The fact that this is a 5-day average, unless they provide the breakdown, doesn't tell us anything about any trends.

 

[Liberty74]

No. If his numbers differed from one day to the next, it's just as possible that the higher numbers were in the early days and lower in the later as vice versa. The fact that this is a 5-day average, unless they provide the breakdown, doesn't tell us anything about any trends.

But that info was provided per the chart in this thread. Rand started at 2%.

 

[erowe1]

But that info was provided per the chart in this thread. Rand started at 2%.

Ahh. I see it now. You're right that it goes up over 5 days. I still don't think it's that significant of a move though. Notice the fluctuation over the whole graph. On 8/15 he was at 6.8%. That low point on 9/24 at the beginning of the last 5 days is just unusually low. Accounting for margins of error, he's just gone up and down slightly within a fairly small range over the whole graph, and needs to keep going up more before it definitely means something.

 

[Brian4Liberty]

Sen. Rand Paul Jumps Cruz+Rubio In New Reuters Poll

Sen. Rand Paul Jumps Cruz+Rubio In New Reuters Poll

Judging by the latest polling numbers from Reuters, rumors of the death of Kentucky Senator Rand Paul’s 2016 GOP Presidential campaign have been greatly exaggerated. According to the Reuters poll, Paul has jumped ahead of Senate colleagues Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas. Paul garners 5.6 % while Rubio is at 5.3% and Cruz at 5.1%Donald Trump, Dr. Ben Carson, and former HP CEO Carly Fiorina continue to lead the field.

While the first nominating contests are still four months away, the poll is an immensely positive sign for Paul after a recent slump. His performance at the Reagan Library debate where he schooled New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie on the 10th Amendment and state’s rights could definitely be a factor in Paul’s bounce.

The Paul campaign is pleased with the poll, saying it matches private polling they’ve conducted and shows the campaign’s strategies are paying off.
...
More: http://conservativeintel.com/2015/09/30/sen-rand-paul-jumps-cruzrubio-in-new-reuters-poll/

 

[Kade]

Trump is rising still.. despite that hiccup. $%&*balls.

Paul at 2% here.

Exclusion, or ratio polling is always interesting to me.. really not looking good.

Internal polls say the same.

 

[moraha]

Looks like he's going back down again. I'm sick of polls. Why can't there be one, besides the official elections obviously, where everybody that's registered can vote. Not just these small groups.

 

[brandon]

How is everyone misreading this poll? You are taking a large data set and applying selective filters to give Paul the best outcome. Not sure if intentionally misleading or just not thinking?

When you only look at republican primary voters in this poll Rand has <3%.

 

[YesI'mALiberal]

How is everyone misreading this poll? You are taking a large data set and applying selective filters to give Paul the best outcome. Not sure if intentionally misleading or just not thinking?

That 5.6% can be found using "Republican likely general election voters"


And his rise seems to be Tea Partyists fleeing from Carson. What stupid gaffe did the good Doctor emit this time?

 

[PCKY]

The thing that I find most curious about this poll is not how much higher Rand appears to be in it, but how much lower Carson and Rubio are compared to the CNN and Fox polls, and also how it reflects Trump not losing any support in contrast to most of the other polls that had him dropping 10 or so points. Either the sample of this poll is completely different than the other polls, or it's reflecting a very soft and superficial level of support for certain candidates, whereas Trump's celebrity factor is more strongly ingrained in peoples' minds than I would think at this juncture.

If I see multiple polls reflecting these numbers in the coming days, I'll treat it as being more serious, but the good news of Rand being a little higher in this poll is almost canceled out by Trump's continued dominance. I don't think Trump will get nominated, but before he goes down in a blaze of glory, he may end up making the GOP brand so poisonous that if Rand was able to pull this thing out he'd still have problems in the general election.

At this juncture, I don't see anything beneficial about having Trump in this race, and I think Rand is wise not to get too closely associated with him.

Rand could maybe be the only one that can overcome the poison pill that Trump has dropped into the Primary.

 

[Feelgood]

What Rand needs is to find something to filibuster in the Senate again. Seemed he had some great face time when he did before.

 

[HVACTech]

Now this is more of a realistic poll of how the landscape looks right now. It's still low-information season. Based on name recognition and media. Not a whole lot based on who people would actually support..

Sucks for Lindsey though.

the Federal reserve owns the media over here.
they are determined to call the shots.

In contrast to its predecessors, CNBC is only using polls conducted by or in partnership with the major news networks and Bloomberg, and only ones released between Sept. 17 and Oct. 21. So far, only four polls qualify.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...n-and-whos-out-of-the-next-republican-debate/