Reported ARG poll numbers in ERROR, spread the word!

[JJ2]

If you look at the other tabs, the results would be different though.

Perferences by Party:
RP: 14*.60 + 20*.40 = 16.4

by Tea Party support:
RP: 15*.27 + 17*.73 = 16.46



So something is fishy. The results for all candidates is about the average of the likely to vote splits. Did they have a typo for the likely to vote %? I don't know.

No, that's the thing. In their South Carolina poll, the split is 90-10 definite/probably voters, and the numbers add up correctly: http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/sc/

 

[Diurdi]

I can't access either of their pages.

Forbidden

You don't have permission to access /pres2012/primary/rep/sc/ on this server.

Additionally, a 403 Forbidden error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request.

 

[lucent]

JJ2, call them. You know what you are talking about.

 

[JJ2]

JJ2, call them. You know what you are talking about.

I'm not able to call right now, but I'll see what I can do.

 

[redmod79]

Either the likely to vote split is wrong or all of the other splits are. Perhaps they fudged the numbers and forgot to fudge the likely voters split.

 

[floydmoon]

Website is not accesible to me.

 

[rp2012win]

I called and left a message.

 

[JJ2]

I found an email address for them through WHOIS: [email protected]

 

[lucent]

I found an email address for them through WHOIS: [email protected]

Call and email. Doing both will have a bigger impact.

 

[maxoutco]

Here's the deal. Someone from the campaign must interview w/ the MSM and state these blatant lies and say will you do our nation a favor and investigate how these polls are working and show to them that it is wrong on live t.v.

 

[The Gold Standard]

Of definite voters the poll is:

Romney 35%
Paul 23%
Gingrich 12%
Santorum 11%
Huntsman 11%
Undecided 6%
Other 2%
Perry 0%


Of probable voters the poll is:

Romney 45%
Huntsman 24%
Santorum 13%
Paul 8%
Undecided 3%
Gingrich 3%
Perry 3%
Other 1%


If defniite voters really made up 97% of this poll, the real results are:

Romney 35.3%
Paul 22.6%
Gingrich 11.7%
Huntsman 11.4%
Santorum 11.1%
Undecided 5.9%
Other 2.0%
Perry 0.0%

 

[Liberty74]

Since the Paul campaign cannot keep up with the media BS, Lies and Smear to refute with a press release (free news coverage), does the campaign need to have a 800 hotline where we the grassroots can keep them informed so they can be on top of it all? Just a thought...this ARG poll is an example. And maybe if the campaign got out in front of that CNN poll, we would be sitting differently?

I think ARG got their definite and probably numbers mixed up. Unless we know the break down of the Republican v Independent vote in their poll (80/20, 70/30, 50/50) we can't say either way. Does anyone know those numbers?

 

[WD-NY]

RP: 23*.97 + 8*.03 = 22.55

JH: 11*.97 + 24*.03 = 11.39

This needs to be tweeted to all the major reporters. (speaking of which, we should have crib sheet that lists the twitter & email addresses of all the major reporters pinned at the top of grassroots central)

 

[Jack Bauer]

Don't jump the gun.

Their numbers only make sense if the Likely/Probably Split is 55-45 and NOT 97-3 as reported.

Other numbers (Repub/Indy split and Tea Party/Non Tea Party split) are consistent.

 

[RickyJ]

Since the Paul campaign cannot keep up with the media BS, Lies and Smear to refute with a press release (free news coverage), does the campaign need to have a 800 hotline where we the grassroots can keep them informed so they can be on top of it all? Just a thought...this ARG poll is an example. And maybe if the campaign got out in front of that CNN poll, we would be sitting differently?

I think ARG got their definite and probably numbers mixed up. Unless we know the break down of the Republican v Independent vote in their poll (80/20, 70/30, 50/50) we can't say either way. Does anyone know those numbers?

There is nothing we or Ron can do to combat these polls unless we do our own polls, get vastly different results, and then tell everyone that something is wrong with all these polls. Let's fact it, we have so many powerful organizations trying to stop Ron Paul from becoming president that it will take a miracle for him to become president.

 

[JJ2]

I think ARG got their definite and probably numbers mixed up.

Don't jump the gun.

Their numbers only make sense if the Likely/Probably Split is 55-45 and NOT 97-3 as reported.

Other numbers (Repub/Indy split and Tea Party/Non Tea Party split) are consistent.

Except their South Carolina poll would indicate the definite/probably breakdown is accurate. It's 90%-10% split in SC: http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/sc/

 

[RonPaulRules]

 

[JJ2]

If defniite voters really made up 97% of this poll, the real results are:

Romney 35.3%
Paul 22.6%
Gingrich 11.7%
Huntsman 11.4%
Santorum 11.1%
Undecided 5.9%
Other 2.0%
Perry 0.0%

Yes, which just happens to be totally in line with other recent polls!

 

[Jack Bauer]

Except their South Carolina poll would indicate the definite/probably breakdown is accurate. It's 90%-10% split in SC: http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/sc/

I don't know what the Likely-Probably split is. Only ARG knows that.

If it is 97-3 as they self reported, then their numbers are grossly screwed up.

However, if they didn't screw up, the Likely-Probably split should be closer to 55-45.

 

[Diurdi]

I don't know what the Likely-Probably split is. Only ARG knows that.

If it is 97-3 as they self reported, then their numbers are grossly screwed up.

However, if they didn't screw up, the Likely-Probably split should be closer to 55-45.

So either their Likely-Probably split number is false, or their poll numbers are false.

Either way, what a massive fuck up of a pollster.