Redistricting NC Fed Congressional Districts?

[GunnyFreedom]

I looked at the demos for SD18. Doesn't look easy in a primary OR general election with Wake County having the overwhelming share of the district. You know something that we don't? Wouldn't contending for HD-25 be a better bet? One other thing to consider....we don't even know that the legal system will allow the new congressional districts to take effect before next year's elections. If that happens, Franklin is still in NC-02 and I'd give you better odds in a primary with Ellmers (after her debt limit hike vote), than jumping into the State Senate race.

There's no way to even begin to know what will happen in the courts. SD18 is actually very strong for me. Most of my local support ended up inside of it. I may be the only Franklin Countyan able to win the district, but I should do better than a Waker in a Primary, and it leans Republican for the General.

 

[TCE]

I looked at the demos for SD18. Doesn't look easy in a primary OR general election with Wake County having the overwhelming share of the district. You know something that we don't? Wouldn't contending for HD-25 be a better bet? One other thing to consider....we don't even know that the legal system will allow the new congressional districts to take effect before next year's elections. If that happens, Franklin is still in NC-02 and I'd give you better odds in a primary with Ellmers (after her debt limit hike vote), than jumping into the State Senate race.

Speaking to the inquiry about whether these districts will apply for this upcoming election, in all likelihood, they will stand. I say this for a few reasons. First, any court battle, even if won by the Democrats, would take several months and would go through the maximum number of appeals with each appeal taking additional time. Even if the entire case is decided in favor of the Democrats and the maximum number of appeals are sorted through, the earliest I could see everything finalized would be April of next year, and that is a best case scenario since I'm sure the GOP will use every stalling technique known to man as an added strategy. Then new districts would need to be redrawn and agreed to, unless the Judge decided to be seriously active and redraw the lines by themselves, which isn't particularly likely. New boundaries would need to be redrawn and agreed to, and in all likelihood, all of the General Election match-ups under the previous districts would be settled, and thus they would be the boundaries for the current election if nothing else and then in two years, everything would reset.

The above, of course, is the speedy scenario. If it is anything like last time, the court challenge will take up to two years or more. My other reason is because these lines have been drawn with the knowledge of what happened last time and they appear much less challenge-able than a decade ago. The GOP may have put together a legal map, and in that case, the districts will stand. In any case, it is the safest option to assume that these will be the districts until we have strong reason to believe they won't be.

Back to your regularly scheduled strategy session! Thank you for reading.

 

[Oldsouljer]

OK, I didn't think you'd jump onto that battlefield without a thorough recon, but at face value, it didn't look good to me. Wish there was another like you to challenge for HD25, though.

 

[TCE]

You're looking at minimally $50,000 to $100,000 as your range, especially if Doug Berger elects to pull out all the stops in the General. Even with that in mind, I'm thinking the Primary will be tougher since it's much more of a wild card where anything can happen and twenty people could challenge you if they felt like it.

 

[Oldsouljer]

Sounds about right. And I sleep well with any money I'd bet that there WILL be a primary. I'm pretty sure another Franklin County candidate will contend unless he thinks Wake County is too high of a hurdle. As for Berger, I hate to think there's that many fools in Wake who'd support that socialist.

 

[TCE]

Sounds about right. And I sleep well with any money I'd bet that there WILL be a primary. I'm pretty sure another Franklin County candidate will contend unless he thinks Wake County is too high of a hurdle. As for Berger, I hate to think there's that many fools in Wake who'd support that socialist.

Berger was clinging to dear life in his last election where he knew the district and was an entrenched incumbent. I understand it was a Republican Wave Year, but seriously, in that heavy of a Democratic district, his performance was atrocious and he is lucky to still have his seat. Now he is going to have to run his first real campaign for the first time in a while, since it appears as if he didn't put his heart in the last one, in a much more even district. Berger would get a slight edge against a random GOP candidate and I believe it is pretty much a toss-up if Gunny were the aforementioned candidate. But yes, there will definitely be a primary.