Redistricting NC Fed Congressional Districts?

[aclove]

I'm currently doing my weekly call-in segment on "Morning Beat with Chad Adams." The topic of redistricting came up, and Chad made the point that Phil Berger's son lives in the new 13th Congressional District. Something to keep in mind...

 

[Oldsouljer]

I wonder if that means that Rucho & the gang have someone else in mind for that seat who hasn't declared yet?

If so, you can bet it's not Bill Randall, who IS going to run, by the way. To them he's a loose cannon. However, George Holden might be their man....at the very least, you know what you're getting with him, if Carter Wrenn is his advisor. And with the 13th expanding in Wake County, those two may not be the only contenders originating down there.

 

[erowe1]

'Round and 'round we go! Now I'm in the 13th...

It seems they keep trying to grab my area (south/southeastern Wake) and put it up with North Raleigh. They just did it for state senate, too. I noticed this map would keep Lawson in 2, though. Is Ellmers still in 2 with this new drawing?

If Lawson's in 2 still, that might not be so bad, since Price is now in 4, according to this:
http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_1...rats-more-heartburn-207470-1.html?pos=htmbtxt

Of course, if 2 is as much or more of a Dem stronghold now as before, that might not make a difference. But, since Lawson now has some name recognition there, and he won't be running against an incumbent, maybe his odds aren't too bad?

 

[GunnyFreedom]

If Lawson's in 2 still, that might not be so bad, since Price is now in 4, according to this:
http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_1...rats-more-heartburn-207470-1.html?pos=htmbtxt

Of course, if 2 is as much or more of a Dem stronghold now as before, that might not make a difference. But, since Lawson now has some name recognition there, and he won't be running against an incumbent, maybe his odds aren't too bad?

The new CDist 2 went 56% McCain in 2008 49.7% (plurality) Dole, and 51.5% McCrory.

So I think they gave RE a pretty durn Republican district.

 

[TCE]

The new CDist 2 went 56% McCain in 2008 49.7% (plurality) Dole, and 51.5% McCrory.

So I think they gave RE a pretty durn Republican district.

That's one point. I've been looking at some of the analysis of the new landscape, it looks like the GOP will be in control in North Carolina and McCrory stands to have a great shot at Purdue.

 

[erowe1]

The new CDist 2 went 56% McCain in 2008 49.7% (plurality) Dole, and 51.5% McCrory.

So I think they gave RE a pretty durn Republican district.

But what about the new 2, now that it's an open seat?

 

[GunnyFreedom]

But what about the new 2, now that it's an open seat?

Renee Elmers has decided to retire?

 

[Oldsouljer]

I'm guessing everyone thinks she's not in the 2nd anymore. I made that mistake earlier because I thought she was a Johnston county native, but she's actually from Dunn in Harnett county so she still resides in the 2nd......barely.

 

[erowe1]

Renee Elmers has decided to retire?

Not sure what I was thinking.

 

[libertybrewcity]

I haven't looked at this thread in a while. Any idea what you're going to do Gunny?

 

[MozoVote]

Glen will probably keep all his options open until it's clear what the state and Federal districts will be. North Carolina is notorious for court battles over district lines. There have not been large fights over the state districts before, but that could change this year.

We could also have elections, followed by another round of redistricting. It happened in 2003.

There are also interesting rumors of a Price-Miller primary battle in the 4th:
http://www.rollcall.com/news/Brad-M...t-New-Map-Redistricting-207835-1.html?pos=adp

 

[libertybrewcity]

Glen will probably keep all his options open until it's clear what the state and Federal districts will be. North Carolina is notorious for court battles over district lines. There have not been large fights over the state districts before, but that could change this year.

We could also have elections, followed by another round of redistricting. It happened in 2003.

There are also interesting rumors of a Price-Miller primary battle in the 4th:
http://www.rollcall.com/news/Brad-M...t-New-Map-Redistricting-207835-1.html?pos=adp

That would be interesting to watch.

 

[Oldsouljer]

That would be interesting to watch.

May happen. Miller is as self-serving as they come, desperately wants to stay in Congress, and Price doesn't appear to be taking Miller's hints that he ought to retire. The funny thing is that the 13th in its final draft is slightly more advantageous to Miller than the first draft that came out, not that winning it would be easy for him. The guy is used to overwhelming odds in his favor and doesn't have the stomach for a truly competitive campaign.

 

[jacque]

May happen. Miller is as self-serving as they come, desperately wants to stay in Congress, and Price doesn't appear to be taking Miller's hints that he ought to retire. The funny thing is that the 13th in its final draft is slightly more advantageous to Miller than the first draft that came out, not that winning it would be easy for him. The guy is used to overwhelming odds in his favor and doesn't have the stomach for a truly competitive campaign.

I've already had 2 people contact me to run in the 13th. Since southern Vance will be in the 13th, they are looking for the GOP help. I also have 1 person looking to run against Butterfield.....lost cause. None of our poor counties can compete with his money.

 

[Oldsouljer]

I've already had 2 people contact me to run in the 13th. Since southern Vance will be in the 13th, they are looking for the GOP help. I also have 1 person looking to run against Butterfield.....lost cause. None of our poor counties can compete with his money.

So have I, though one of those candidates no longer resides in the latest version of the 13th. While officially, I can't take sides, I'm pulling for the non-establishment candidate. I think he'd do well by us. He's going to have to make up a lot of ground, though, as he's not real familiar with, nor does he have an existing support team in any of the new counties in the 13th. By the way, I'm still looking for a good candidate to run for HD-02. Not sure who its going to be, but I'm pulling for the man in Franklin County to win his race, so my candidate will have a good guide and mentor at the statehouse. Which reminds me, the southwestern border of West Youngsville 2 precinct is literally on my doorstep. Some of my across-the-street neighbors are eligible to vote for Gunny. I can help their precinct chief with his GOTV efforts come primary time, but he changed his phone number and I'm still trying to figure out how to reach him. I'll get back to you or someone in Franklin soon, if I need help with that.

 

[GunnyFreedom]

So have I, though one of those candidates no longer resides in the latest version of the 13th. While officially, I can't take sides, I'm pulling for the non-establishment candidate. I think he'd do well by us. He's going to have to make up a lot of ground, though, as he's not real familiar with, nor does he have an existing support team in any of the new counties in the 13th. By the way, I'm still looking for a good candidate to run for HD-02. Not sure who its going to be, but I'm pulling for the man in Franklin County to win his race, so my candidate will have a good guide and mentor at the statehouse. Which reminds me, the southwestern border of West Youngsville 2 precinct is literally on my doorstep. Some of my across-the-street neighbors are eligible to vote for Gunny. I can help their precinct chief with his GOTV efforts come primary time, but he changed his phone number and I'm still trying to figure out how to reach him. I'll get back to you or someone in Franklin soon, if I need help with that.

That means we are almost walking distance from each other. Well, walking distance if i hadn't fubar'd my ankle last month. I'm just off NC 96 not 2 miles from US 1. You may be familiar with Stroud's junkyard. I'm right around there.

 

[Oldsouljer]

I pretty much figured you were in the neighborhood when it was mentioned awhile back that your homestead is within spitting distance from the county line.

 

[Oldsouljer]

Also, you mentioned the McDonalds in Youngsville once which made me suspect you resided in the area.

 

[GunnyFreedom]

Also, you mentioned the McDonalds in Youngsville once which made me suspect you resided in the area.

Well, if all goes as planned in another 6 years after 3 terms in SD18 I'll be looking at CD13, which includes you, and your very reliably Republican-voting neighborhood

 

[Oldsouljer]

I looked at the demos for SD18. Doesn't look easy in a primary OR general election with Wake County having the overwhelming share of the district. You know something that we don't? Wouldn't contending for HD-25 be a better bet? One other thing to consider....we don't even know that the legal system will allow the new congressional districts to take effect before next year's elections. If that happens, Franklin is still in NC-02 and I'd give you better odds in a primary with Ellmers (after her debt limit hike vote), than jumping into the State Senate race.