Recent internal polls showing Brannon ahead of Tillis, Thom getting desperate

[AdamL]

That narrative pretty much reflects what I heard from the other two sources. The other thing that has me doubting this runaway winner theory is the sudden switch to attacking Greg Brannon. Theam Tillis sent out a mailer accusing Brannon of being a tax cheat — that even caused The Shih-Tzu to call BS. They’ve followed that up with a nasty mailer about a business dispute that didn’t go well for Brannon. Why do this if you truly are up 19 to 26 points on your rivals four days before the polls close?

Perhaps it’s because his standing with the voters isn’t really even close to that. Details of internal polling performed by campaigns in the primary — as well as by interested third parties — have been shared with me. Publicly-released polling shows Tillis with 46 percent and 39 percent of the vote. Private polls I’ve been briefed on show him — at best — with 27 percent. Publicly-released polling has shown an undecided group at anywhere from 20 to 35 percent. These internal polls have Undecided at the mid- to low-teens.

I know of two recent internal polls that show Tillis in third place behind Brannon and Harris.

http://dailyhaymaker.com/?p=7870

Looks like Tillis might not even make it to a runoff.

Here's the newest mailer the Tillis campaign is sending out attacking Brannon (the second one they've sent out over the past week):

http://www.news-record.com/blogs/ki...cle_8a36c3e8-d159-11e3-8cae-001a4bcf6878.html

 

[Mr.NoSmile]

So long as everyone who backs Brannon, particularly the youth, show up to the polls and cast their ballots, good news. And with Tillis attacking Brannon, it definitely shows that Tillis considers him the primary competition, since Tillis has mostly been going after Kagan.

 

[Brett85]

If that's true, I don't know how the public polls could be so far off.

 

[gnuschler]

I understand what you're saying, but have we seen a reliable poll? In 2012, PPP polled Texas and Indiana well, but they were wrong on both Wisconsin and Missouri. A few weeks ago, UT/Texas Tribune projected Debra Medina to get 39% ... unfortunately, she only got 19%.

 

[RandallFan]

It has been said Tillis jumped 20 points in the polls while his approval stayed the same. I'd also be wary of Mark Harris getting into 2nd if the socons are the ones who disproportionately turn out. Should that happen do you think Brannon should endorse as he moves onto Burr? Of course never endorse Tillis.

 

[TheTyke]

I will be VERY curious how this turns out. Because we're having the same experience in KY. VoterID calls show us pulling ahead but independent polls do not. Is it how the questions are being asked or something??

You guys vote first.... Go Brannon!!!

 

[NewRightLibertarian]

For what it's worth, I remember polls having Bentivolio way down to his primary challenger in Michigan in 2012 and he ended up trouncing the competitor. I think similar trickery was done to Amash as well. I would keep fighting and shrug these negative polls off. There's a good chance they could be BS.

 

[IndianaPolitico]

For what it's worth, I remember polls having Bentivolio way down to his primary challenger in Michigan in 2012 and he ended up trouncing the competitor. I think similar trickery was done to Amash as well. I would keep fighting and shrug these negative polls off. There's a good chance they could be BS.

I remember the Bentivolio situation, hopefully the same thing happens here. Brannon has the ground game, so we will have to see if he can turn his supporters out.

 

[slacker921]

Harris has a massive ground game in certain counties because the evangelicals and social conservatives are being told by their church leaders to support him. Harris has the mailing list of the Southern Baptist Convention of NC at his disposal and a lot of those people will go vote for him without doing any research.

The Tillis supporters that I'm aware of have shifted over and started working on the Harris campaign. It seems the game plan is to get Harris into second (behind Tillis) and he will endorse Tillis. The level of support for Brannon, along with the Levin, Beck, Sen Mike Lee, Sen Rand Paul, etc endorsements have really thrown the Tillis and NCGOP people (who are behind Harris) off balance.



The recent polls showing Tillis ahead are pure BS..

 

[devil21]

I sure do see a lot of Harris signs all over the place. His sign people are very active. But yeah Ive been saying all along that the polls are crap and only meant to form opinion instead of report it. Hoping Rand's appearance in Charlotte will get a lot of coverage!

 

[Jeremy]

Internal polls mean nothing and PPP has a reputation for being accurate.

 

[TheTyke]

Internal polls mean nothing and PPP has a reputation for being accurate.

Actually have to disagree here... they showed Conway up 12% over Rand at a time when just the state fair drained all campaign supplies from the whole state. At the events, like 1 in 4 people had a Rand fan... it was crazy. On the ground, it was euphorically pro-Rand everywhere. Conway was never ahead. All that said, as I recall, accuracy is rated just within the final month, and there they have been one of the more accurate ones. Guess we'll just have to find out.

 

[GunnyFreedom]

Internal polls mean nothing and PPP has a reputation for being accurate.

had

They have lost that reputation in the last 3 or so years having produced ideologically driven data that didn't track. You will note they are still touting a newspaper clipping from 2008 praising their accuracy. That's 6 years ago.

PPP had a reputation for being accurate. They no longer really do though.

 

[devil21]

Internal polls mean nothing and PPP has a reputation for being accurate.

Multiple internal polls can be accurate though. Brannon and Harris internal poll numbers BOTH dispute the corporate polling firms (F U FRANK!) results. If Tillis is punching down then his internal polls show it too. This race is close. Is Tillis attacking Harris at all?

 

[devil21]

FUCK YOU FRANK

 

[aclove]

Multiple internal polls can be accurate though. Brannon and Harris internal poll numbers BOTH dispute the corporate polling firms (F U FRANK!) results. If Tillis is punching down then his internal polls show it too. This race is close. Is Tillis attacking Harris at all?

No, and here's why. Brannon volunteers around the state have reported catching Tillis volunteers in the act of putting out Harris signs in places where Brannon signs have mysteriously disappeared. This indicates that the Tillis campaign has now gone over to Plan B: get Harris into 2nd place so that if Tillis can't get to 40%, Harris will be his opponent. Harris will then either graciously decline to ask for a runoff, or he'll be so weak (he only really has strong support in Charlotte, Winston-Salem, and a couple of rural counties) that Tillis can cruise to victory without spending much more money.

 

[William Tell]

We need Brannon so badly.

 

[Mr.NoSmile]

We need Brannon so badly.

His backers down in NC just need to show up in droves. That and, I suppose, catch any folks on the fence and convince them why Brannon is the stronger candidate by going after Tillis' record. And with Tillis now having Romney's backing- because the oblivious just see Romney and think credible- he's got strong establishment support. Not sure why Romney's backing should mean something, but hey, the average voter doesn't look too deep into these things, unfortunately.

 

[Brett85]

We need Brannon so badly.

Agreed. But if he wins the GOP nomination, I think he needs to follow Rand's example and water down some of his views and tailor his message for a general election. Because the Democrats are really going to hammer him for some of his views, such as his remark a couple of years ago that public schools should be abolished.

 

[slacker921]

No, and here's why. Brannon volunteers around the state have reported catching Tillis volunteers in the act of putting out Harris signs in places where Brannon signs have mysteriously disappeared. This indicates that the Tillis campaign has now gone over to Plan B: get Harris into 2nd place so that if Tillis can't get to 40%, Harris will be his opponent. Harris will then either graciously decline to ask for a runoff, or he'll be so weak (he only really has strong support in Charlotte, Winston-Salem, and a couple of rural counties) that Tillis can cruise to victory without spending much more money.

This is why Robin Hayes (ex chair of NCGOP) and a bunch of the NCGOP staffers got Harris into the race and are working for him. He's the backup plan.

They used a Baptist preacher to peel off the evangelical "tea party" voters from Brannon. I wonder if he'll feel dirty after this election?