Rasmussen Reports for Iowa has Ron at 2nd at 20%, behind Romney's 25%

[Andrew Ryan]

Fox news showing this again for the second time in the last 15-20 min.

 

[bluesc]

Yea and RCP needs to update the Iowa numbers with this poll that they left out:

Has RP 3 points above Gingrich

RP @ 28
Gingrich @ 25
Mitt @ 18

They already did. It was started before the other Iowa polls, so it's further down the list.

 

[SchleckBros]

I'm sad to say it but the constant media coverage of the newsletters is having a negative. I hope I'm wrong though.

Also did anyone catch if they only include Republicans or if they also include Independents and Democrats.

 

[UtahApocalypse]

Yea and RCP needs to update the Iowa numbers with this poll that they left out:

http://www.kcrg.com/news/local/Vote-2012-Ron-Paul-Takes-Lead-in-KCRGGazette-Poll-135977303.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Has RP 3 points above Gingrich

RP @ 28
Gingrich @ 25
Mitt @ 18

RCP has had the KRCG poll added all day today

 

[bluesc]

I'm sad to say it but the constant media coverage of the newsletters is having a negative. I hope I'm wrong though.

No it's not. He has gained since the last Rasmussen poll. Rasmussen ALWAYS his Ron lower than other pollsters.

 

[Jeremy]

For Rasmussen, I would say 20% is good for us especially for just Republican voters.

"likely caucus participants"

 

[Andrew Ryan]

Rasmussen also says Ron Paul is the weakest candidate against Obama

 

[Inkblots]

I'm sad to say it but the constant media coverage of the newsletters is having a negative. I hope I'm wrong though.

Also did anyone catch if they only include Republicans or if they also include Independents and Democrats.

As previous posters pointed out, this is an improvement in Paul's numbers from the previous Rasmussen poll. If you're looking for evidence of Paul losing momentum, this poll ain't it.

 

[Aratus]

ron paul's gain in this poll is a given

 

[A. Havnes]

What? Romney is surging?

I have a stupid question, but why is Rasmussen more unreliable than the other polls? I know that the other polls have Ron on top, but why is this one different? Who owns it?

 

[Blue]

We're leading in every poll lately besides this one. I don't believe it.

 

[bluesc]

This is encouraging.

Among those who say they are certain to participate in the caucus, Romney and Paul are essentially even. As always in a caucus, the organizational effort to get identified supporters to show up on January 3 is likely to determine the outcome.

 

[amonasro]

Among those who say they are certain to participate in the caucus, Romney and Paul are essentially even. As always in a caucus, the organizational effort to get identified supporters to show up on January 3 is likely to determine the outcome.

Good news right there. This poll also shows that the newsletters attacks are not working. Overall I'm happy with the result.

 

[Aratus]

their sampling approach has not changed.
doctor ron paul is gaining in all the polls.

 

[asurfaholic]

Also did anyone catch if they only include Republicans or if they also include Independents and Democrats.

Im wondering this too...

 

[RonPaul101.com]

I think this is the best thing that could happen to us; keep us hungry for the win. I can not believe my eyes and ears when I recently talk to Paul supporters who are syaing focus on NH, Iowa is already ours (and yes, I have read and heard that, no BS.) Paul has never won a state, so we should never look past this for the next one, even if we were leading by 10 points on average.

Plus if our "low poll" numbers have us at 20%, that means we CAN do this, and must.

 

[bluesc]

Im wondering this too...

This answers it:

Romney leads with Gingrich in second among those who consider themselves Republicans. Paul has a wide lead among non-Republicans who are likely to participate in the caucuses.

 

[Inkblots]

What? Romney is surging?

I have a stupid question, but why is Rasmussen more unreliable than the other polls? I know that the other polls have Ron on top, but why is this one different? Who owns it?

To answer your questions, in order:
- No more than Paul is; they're both up from Ras' previous poll
- They use their own proprietary turnout model to determine who is a "likely voter"; many polling firms do this, and part of the "art" of polling is having a more predictive model than the next fellow. Obviously, Ras tends to skew toward the results that the GOP establishment wants to see, and whether this "house effect" is deliberate or not I'll leave to better minds than myself to speculate upon
- Unsurprisingly, Scott Rasmussen owns Rasmussen Reports

 

[PhineasFinn]

These polls indicate that Iowa is a race between Romney and Paul. They are a snapshot into the present that changes with the wind. I'm pretty sure our exasperated efforts put into the Iowa effort will not go in vein, but we must remember the Iowa voters that still consider Paul a kook.

I don't know. I want to be optimistic but can't shake my realism.

 

[TomtheTinker]

I don't understand why people are disappointed by these results..1st-2nd is a damn good place to be 13 days before the contest.