Unofficial Predictions for the Coming Months - How Do You See the Race Going?

[dusman]

Here is my fun, unofficial prediction for the coming months. (My methodology is partly wishful thinking.. you have been warned).

November 15, 2015 Polls
Trump - 22-27%
Carson - 17-19%
Rubio - 13-15%
Bush - 10-12%
Cruz - 10-12%
Paul - 7-8%
Fiorina - 3-5%
Christie - 2-3%
Huckabee - 1-2%
Kasich - Drops

December 15, 2015 Polls
Trump - 20-25%
Rubio - 19-23%
Carson - 12-16%
Bush - 11-14%
Paul - 10-12%
Cruz - 7-9%
Huckabee - Drops
Christie - Drops

January 15, 2015 Polls
Trump - 19-23%
Rubio - 17-20%
Bush - 14-18%
Paul - 12-15%
Cruz - 7-9%
Fiorina - Drops
Carson - In a shocker.. Carson drops and shows support for Rand once Paul passes him in the polls. I think we see Carson dip below 10% between Dec 15 and Jan 15. Carson seeing that his support has bottomed out, decides that throwing his support behind Paul has more significance than staying in the race. This to the surprise of everyone.

Between Jan 15 and Feb 1 the media coverage gets dominated by the surprise drop of Carson. We will see a lot of talk about Rand and a lot of negative media to prevent Carson support from moving his way. I think we also see Cruz make a small resurgence from some media hype over this same time frame.. similar to what we saw with Santorum in 2012. This being solely for the purpose of getting Carson support to shift to Cruz to siphon Paul's effectiveness in Iowa.

However, there will also be a lot of talk that Rand may come out of Iowa the winner due to organization on the ground and his rise in the polls. He'll be coined the dark horse. Attacks will be divided between Rand, Trump and Rubio to prop up Bush. Rubio will take the worst dive in the polls as a result and the narrative will become a "Bush surge".

February 1, 2015 Polls
Trump - 18-22%
Bush - 16-20%
Rubio - 14-18%
Paul - 14-18%
Cruz - 12-15%

Iowa.. it will be the most unusual caucus we've seen in the past 20 years, if Carson drops beforehand. There will be so much uncertainty going in that the media will probably seriously downplay the results. Iowa will make or break Trump. If he wins, he will take New Hampshire and Nevada and Paul loses relevance. It will become a two way race between Bush and Trump. If Carson sticks around, I think Paul has less chance to win Iowa.

However, I think the efforts to suppress Trump works with Iowa voters and at the same time Carson drops. Rand gets a surprise win in Iowa, but the media downplays the win, chocking it up to simply getting college students out to caucus and they continue to talk about the Bush surge and his second place showing reflecting a turn in voter sentiment. I think Trump comes in third, shocking half the GOP.. while the other half celebrates.. which dominates the media up to New Hampshire. The media will be more dominated by talking about Trump's epic fall instead of Rand's surprise win.

Iowa Results:
Paul - 22-24%
Bush - 21-23%
Trump - 19-21%
Rubio - 15-18%
Cruz - 12-14%

February 9, 2015 Polls
Bush - 22-24%
Trump - 18-22%
Rand - 17-21%
Rubio - 12-15%
Cruz - 10-12%

After Iowa I think we see the most divided polling of the race, with the top 3 potentially all within the margin of error. Nationwide, there are still doubts about Rand Paul as the nominee.. but in New Hampshire a buzz develops over Paul. Meanwhile, Bush and Trump attack each other to prevent one or the other winning New Hampshire. Trump is seen as a sore loser from Iowa (and for the first time his defensive side comes out) and that's how Bush frames it. This is the first time we see anyone over take Trump in the polls. Bush, though, raises a lot of concerns in the base about his establishment roots and a small portion of Trump's support moves to Paul as the new anti-establishment vote. New Hampshire takes a particularly jaded view of Bush.

Both candidates also go after Paul, giving Paul much needed media attention and voters begin to see Rand Paul in a different light. With his win in Iowa.. Rand's demeanor changes slightly.. in a way that emboldens him, makes him less unsettled to attacks and more confident during interviews. Rand in contrast to Trump and Bush starts to gain favorability. Rubio's poor performance in Iowa and his drop in the polls kills his campaign and his support splits between Paul and Trump in New Hampshire.

New Hampshire Results:
Paul - 30-32%
Trump - 27-29%
Bush - 25-28%
Rubio - 2-5%
Cruz - 2-5%

I think due to Trump's third place finish and Rand's first place finish, we see Rand win New Hampshire. I think this only happens if Trump gets third in Iowa. If Rand wins Iowa and Trump comes in second, I think we see Trump win New Hampshire and Rand gets third behind Bush.

Outlook After New Hampshire
If the cards play out as above, Rand takes the helm as the anti-establishment candidate against Bush. I think Trump sticks around after a Nevada win up to Super Tuesday and we see a legitimate 3-way race. If Rand holds up in Texas and onward through to the convention.. the establishment will make an aggressive effort to prevent a Paul nomination and we will see a bitter fight on the floor, leading to a brokered convention. It is here where our experience and convention rule knowledge will get tested most. If Paul wins the nomination, I think we see Trump run as an Independent. If Bush wins, I think he loses to Hillary in the general.

I think Paul wins the presidency if he gets the nomination and Trump decides not to run Independent.

How do you see the next few months playing out?

 

[jllundqu]

Them's some rose-colored glasses you got on there, mate.


I stopped reading here:

Carson - In a shocker.. Carson drops and shows support for Rand once Paul passes him in the polls. I think we see Carson dip below 10% between Dec 15 and Jan 15. Carson seeing that his support has bottomed out, decides that throwing his support behind Paul has more significance than staying in the race. This to the surprise of everyone.

 

[dusman]

Them's some rose-colored glasses you got on there, mate.

I think the rise of Rubio sucks the life out of Carson's campaign.

 

[jllundqu]

In what universe will the uber-social-conservative warhawk Carson throw his support behind the more social liberal non-interventionist dove?

I'd like two of what you're smoking, please!

 

[Maltheus]

The only bumper stickers I see around town are for Carson, so unless he has a deal with Trump, I don't see him dropping out anytime soon.

 

[dusman]

In what universe will the uber-social-conservative warhawk Carson throw his support behind the more social liberal non-interventionist dove?

I'd like two of what you're smoking, please!

Well, considering Carson endorsed Rand in the past and explicitly passed on Cruz in that same interview, I think it's plausible. I also happen to think Carson is most closely aligned with Paul over anyone else running. I don't see Carson throwing his support behind anyone else.

Nonetheless, I shared my prediction. I'm more curious to hear yours and others potential outcomes rather than debate mine.

 

[liberty_nc]

Well, considering Carson endorsed Rand in the past and explicitly passed on Cruz in that same interview, I think it's plausible. I also happen to think Carson is most closely aligned with Paul over anyone else running. I don't see Carson throwing his support behind anyone else.

Nonetheless, I shared my prediction. I'm more curious to hear yours and others potential outcomes rather than debate mine.

Carson has verbally supported Rand, and spectrum wise comes closer to Rand then any other republican candidate. I have heard Carson speak before, a month ago at my church, and his economic policy is very rand-like, gold standard, cut taxes, cut spending, audit the fed, etc. His foreign policy seemed less hawkish than others. Carson would most likely support Rand, if Rand has fairly good polling (6%+) Rand also has a good impression of Carson, even saying he would support Carson, when asked who he would support if he wasn't running.

 

[Liberty74]

I don't see Trump or Carson making it in the top 2 in Iowa or NH. One or both might drop out after SC if not sooner. If Trump tanks, no amount of his own money can bring him back from the dead.

I see the bottom 5 as it stands today dropping out by Dec if not sooner unless the media tries to pump another male Carly.

The race by Iowa will be down to 6-8 candidates.

 

[ds21089]

Dec 25th - Trump has an epiphany of how much of a traitorous swine he is and drops out of the race, encouraging all supporters to vote for Rand. He then says "Merry Christmas, bitches" as he drops the mic and leaves. He also donates 10 million to super pacs for Rand. This creates a Randslide all the way to the White House.......if only........

 

[carlton]

Dec 25th - Trump has an epiphany of how much of a traitorous swine he is and drops out of the race, encouraging all supporters to vote for Rand. He then says "Merry Christmas, bitches" as he drops the mic and leaves. He also donates 10 million to super pacs for Rand. This creates a Randslide all the way to the White House.......if only........

Close your eyes, click your rubie slippers and your wish shall be granted.

 

[ds21089]

Close your eyes, click your rubie slippers and your wish shall be granted.

"There's no place like a Constitutional America. There's no place like a Constitutional America. There's no place like a Constitutional America."

 

[Foreigner]

I think an Iowa Rand upset victory can happen. The Concerned American Voters can make a great difference there in addition to the official campaign. Even if Rand is polling only 5-6% there now, that's enough to win if everyone of them can be contacted and enlisted to show in the caucus. The turnout is very low. New Hampshire has a much larger % of the population voting.

And polling is going to look much better in January. (really, if it's in low single digits then, there is no point to go on anyway)

 

[cindy25]

Huck won't drop out before Iowa. with Carson his support is soft. one gaffe, and he is gaffe prone will cause his support to fall.

plus Carson is a bad debater and there are several coming up.

 

[MrGoose]

The only bumper stickers I see around town are for Carson, so unless he has a deal with Trump, I don't see him dropping out anytime soon.

Where do you live? I see Bernie bumper stickers only, but I'm in Seattle so.... yeah...


I think Rand can (and has to) win Iowa still. He's on the up and up. He just needs stellar debate performances. I see Trump in for the long haul but I still think Carson will collapse. Herman Cain as an example.

I see many of the 1 percenters dropping out in the near future and hopefully Christie. He's polling terribly in his home state and I can't imagine his money will last him too long.

 

[adam220891]

No point in dropping out before Iowa if you are polling at least 5%. Might as well see what happens...Christie, Kasich, Jindal, Graham, and frothy probably won't be around but Cruz, Carson, Huck etc likely will unless they say something really stupid.