Rasmussen Iowa poll [UPDATE: Released, Confirmed]

[Agorism]

Someone who told me they have early access gave me these numbers about an hour ago. idk if they are real but they aren't on his website. Official numbers come at noon eastern I believe when he will release them.


Rasmussen Iowa

Romney: 23% (-2)
Paul: 22% (+2)
Santorum: 16%
Gingrich: 13%
Perry: 13%
Bachmann: 5%
Huntsman: 3%


Edit: I stress I don't know if these numbers are bogus or not.


hxxp://davidwissing.com/?p=16917

edit: official release

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/iowa/2012_iowa_republican_caucus

 

[sailingaway]

Weird, they just did one. Well, Ron went up from their last one, compared to Romney, and he overperformed Rasmussen's poll in 2008 by about 8 points I think.

But we HAVE to get RevPak's ad out along with clips of Mickelson's interview. The unsureness of if Ron 'is what he seems' is stunting him.

Also, separately, we have to get out Santorums No Child Left Behind and big government spending record. He voted to raise the debt ceiling 5 times! http://www.thepoliticalguide.com/Pr...eficit,_Spending,_and_the_Size_of_Government/ AND endorsed Specter over Toomey.

 

[libertyfanatic]

This Santorum surge seems fishy...

 

[Agorism]

Newt is too strong in SC much like Romney is too strong in NH.

I hope Newt gets nearly dead last so that his support in SC goes down.

idk if the numbers are even real. We'll find out in 10 minutes.

 

[bluesc]

Nice.

 

[DRV45N05]

Santorum looks set for 3rd. Not surprised.

Ron up 2, Mitt down 2 since the last Rasmussen poll. Not sure what Rasmussen's sampling is, though.

Ron's organization will make up the difference, if this is the current state.

 

[libertyfanatic]

They're going to try to give Santroum 2nd place to discredit Ron's win

 

[tbone717]

It's a two man race. If these poll numbers are even close to accurate then Newt is done. The also-rans (Perry, Santorum, Bachmann, Huntsman) will show poorly in NH meaning by the time we get to SC it will be Romney and Paul with a couple others hanging around for egocentric reasons. This is playing out exactly as we have hoped for. We have a blue state liberal Republican vs a red state lifelong conservative. This is 1964 all over again. The difference however between 64 and today is that the incumbent president is presiding over a wretched economy and is very unpopular, all of which bodes well for Paul in the general election.

 

[Joey Wahoo]

The Santorum surge is due to the fact that some powerful Iowa preachers have just endorsed him. Their flocks are falling in line behind him. They're trying to get the social cons to concentrate their vote on one candidate (as they did with Huckabee four years ago). This could really hurt if Bachmann and Perry fade out entirely and much of their support goes to Santorum.

 

[cameronb]

If Gingrich is really in 4th in this latest poll, that is very good...

 

[pauliticalfan]

We'll see if it's real first...

 

[sailingaway]

This Santorum surge seems fishy...

He is just unvetted.

 

[SchleckBros]

That's good for a Rasmussen poll

 

[Agorism]

We'll see if it's real first...

I think Rasmussen does only registered R's I believe like CNN. So if we're within 1% of Romney with no I's or D's included, then that's about the same as PPP had us if not better.

 

[RickyJ]

Who gets the crowds in Iowa?

It isn't Romney or any of the rest, it is Paul!

That is why I can't even buy this poll. We have to be on guard against election fraud. I don't see how in a fair election that Ron Paul doesn't win this by at least 7 points.

 

[Rincewind]

The Santorum surge is due to the fact that some powerful Iowa preachers have just endorsed him. Their flocks are falling in line behind him. They're trying to get the social cons to concentrate their vote on one candidate (as they did with Huckabee four years ago). This could really hurt if Bachmann and Perry fade out entirely and much of their support goes to Santorum.

It's also because the media has been touting a Santorum surge for 2 weeks, which seems kinda backwards when you think about it.

 

[braane]

I am nervous about the social conservatives coalescing at the last second behind Santorum. Hopefully Perry and Gingrich can hold strong with their vote.

 

[fatjohn]

I´m weary of santorum. If this is real. It´s not good news.

 

[Patriot0811]

i don't care even if Santorum gets second. He doesn't have the resources to stay in the race much longer after that.

 

[Mr. Rapp]

I'm getting a little worried. A possible drop in the polls before the caucus..