Rand's last hope in Iowa
- Thread starter helenpaul
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Patrick Henry
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I love your optimism CPUd and I pray Rand has a great night Monday!
CPUd
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We're not hoping for a thing here, we're working to deliver Iowa to Rand.
timreichstein
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If Trump wins the Iowa caucus in a landslide, it's gonna be over for everyone.
Rand needs to finish top 3 in a close race, and preferably beat out Trump, whose support doesn't show up with a terrible GOTV campaign.
Top 2 would be even better.
Rand needs to finish top 3 in a close race, and preferably beat out Trump, whose support doesn't show up with a terrible GOTV campaign.
Top 2 would be even better.
Jonderdonk
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Is Trump really lacking organization? I hate the man, but there is no denying that he is an exceedingly competent individual surrounded by competent surrogates.
I don't live near Iowa, so I have no way of knowing about his GOTV effort, or lack thereof. Just asking.
timosman
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Foreigner
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Rand has very good chances in Iowa. He will turn out at least 20.000 supporters.
Nobody doubts that Trump has the most total number of supporters in Iowa. But I think a underwhelming number of them are going to show up. Hardcore Cruz fans are smelling possible victory, so they are going to show in numbers. Rubio will get a good number of the establishment faithful that are central in organizing the caucus events - but he doesn't have any good GOTV operation himself.
While I believe that Rand will turn out 20.000 supporters no matter what, my main worry is that larger portions of the Liberty-voters are going to be "Oh, it's not looking like he will win anyway by the polling numbers, so I can stay home without feeling bad". And then we end up at around 15-18%, just 7-8% behind the caucus winner.
Anyway, I am super-excited for Monday! It's gonna be make or break for the campaign!
Nobody doubts that Trump has the most total number of supporters in Iowa. But I think a underwhelming number of them are going to show up. Hardcore Cruz fans are smelling possible victory, so they are going to show in numbers. Rubio will get a good number of the establishment faithful that are central in organizing the caucus events - but he doesn't have any good GOTV operation himself.
While I believe that Rand will turn out 20.000 supporters no matter what, my main worry is that larger portions of the Liberty-voters are going to be "Oh, it's not looking like he will win anyway by the polling numbers, so I can stay home without feeling bad". And then we end up at around 15-18%, just 7-8% behind the caucus winner.
Anyway, I am super-excited for Monday! It's gonna be make or break for the campaign!
CPUd
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Their strategy is based on volume. What his campaign is going to do is go out to the 2 largest counties and bring people to the caucus sites. They have no way of identifying their support before they get to the caucus location, so they could be bringing undecideds out who will ultimately support someone else. And I assume, some of them will caucus for Trump.
Jonderdonk
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Do you see what couple of billion bucks does to your perception?
You couldn't possibly be trying to argue that Trump is an incompetent person... That's just foolish underestimation.
I'm just asking anyone in Iowa knows for a fact that he really does lack organization, or if everyone is just assuming that.
Jonderdonk
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Thank you.
nikcers
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The press has gone past his office a bunch and it has been empty. He also has to report expenditures so unless he has been cooking his books then all of his bets are riding on NH.
clint4liberty
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No one has even voted yet. The race has not even begun. Let us keep working and plugging along.
IMO Trump's support will not turn out. His campaign has no gotv effort, has no "how to" on caucusing and generally no structure at all. I think he will underperform in IA. Unfortunately that would mean Cruz, not Rand wins IA. Cruz has a real campaign in place in IA.
http://www.examiner.com/article/is-trump-trouble
[h=1]Is Trump in trouble?[/h][COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65098)][/COLOR]
Apparently, Donald Trump is more worried about not winning Iowa than he's let on in public. To be fair, he's leading the final Des Moines Register poll before the Iowa Caucuses. Mr. Trump leads with 28%, with Sen. Cruz at 25% and Sen. Rubio at 15%. Still, Mr. Trump must be worried. This Time article doesn't have the sound of a confident candidate. Time quotes Trump as saying "You have to get out there and caucus, or we’ve all wasted our time. Unless I win, I would consider this a big, fat, beautiful, and, by the way, a very expensive, waste of time. “If I don’t win, maybe bad things happen."
Trump gained 6 points since the previous DMR/Bloomberg poll, which was conducted January 7-10. Cruz dropped from 25% to 23% with Sen. Rubio gaining 3 points, going from 12% in early January to 15% in the just-released poll. A major takeaway from the DMR/Bloomberg Poll is that "nothing in this poll forecasts a groundswell of new people." That's supposed to be bad news for Mr. Trump if the Monmouth University Poll is to be believed. The DMR/Bloomberg Poll says that Trump's support is solid, regardless of turnout.
Shane Vander Hart of Caffeinated Thoughts took a picture today of a Trump call center in Des Moines. The parking lot was virtually empty. What's worse is that this empty parking lot was in the late morning. If ever there was a time when a call center should have volunteers making calls, it's on the final Saturday before the big vote. There have been unconfirmed reports of Trump precinct captains not having lists of people to call to get out the vote.
The final DMR/Bloomberg poll is the most respected poll because it's incredibly accurate. In 2012, it got 3 of the top finishers almost exactly right. The exception was Rick Santorum, who was supported by 15% of the people called. He won the Iowa Caucuses, finishing with 24.6%. In 2012, the DMR final poll got within tenths of a point for Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul.
The anecdotal evidence from the reporters on the ground doesn't square with the DMR/Bloomberg Poll. That doesn't mean it'll be wrong. It just means that someone's wrong at this point. The point is, we won't know who is wrong for another 48 hours. At that point, we'll have a much clearer picture of things.
Do you see what couple of billion bucks does to your perception?
Possibly, but I do see what billions of dollars in round the clock free advertising does for a political candidate. I'm not wanting to throw up the white flag just yet and won't until the votes are counted.. However if this poll turns out to be true it tells me the establishment ran three candidates to thwart the liberty movements candidate, specifically Trump, Cruz, and yes even Sanders. It is what it is, but Cruz is by far the one I loath the most. He does a much better job hiding it, but the man imo is even more narcissist than Donald Trump. But back to Rand, I'm voting for the man regardless even once everything is decided. I just hope and pray the hardcore Ron Paul supporters in Iowa wake the eh umm up and do the same.
Origanalist
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I don't believe it's that at all, my primary is not until May but I'll be voting for the man even if he's out of the race way before then. I can't speak for anyone other than myself, but I suppose I'm a little disappointed (IF these numbers are remotely accurate AND the campaign knew it) that they didn't deploy the campaign"scorched earth tactic" which in my mind would have been getting Ron on the campaign trail at least throughout January to not just fire up the base but to get back the "soft" support that you mention that may have fled to Sanders, Trump, or Cruz. Now I know the whole Ron didn't or shouldn't have to argument, but I haven't seen or heard him say that.
I'll stop, no vote has been cast and if the campaign has truly identified 37,000 potential voters then Rand honestly has a great shot at pulling off a major upset whether he finishes first or not. I'm sorry guys I'm normally not the guy that is being negative, I'm just frustrated and shouldn't be spewing my apathy. I will truly be praying for a major upset and it's way to early to be playing Monday morning quarterback.
