Rand's last hope in Iowa

[lly4now]

IMO Trump's support will not turn out. His campaign has no gotv effort, has no "how to" on caucusing and generally no structure at all. I think he will underperform in IA. Unfortunately that would mean Cruz, not Rand wins IA. Cruz has a real campaign in place in IA.

They just blasted this video out to their supporters today

 

[69360]

They just blasted this video out to their supporters today

They just figured out they needed to instruct their voters with 2 days to go?

 

[nikcers]

IMO Trump's support will not turn out. His campaign has no gotv effort, has no "how to" on caucusing and generally no structure at all. I think he will underperform in IA. Unfortunately that would mean Cruz, not Rand wins IA. Cruz has a real campaign in place in IA.

Real campaigns guilt people into voting for their candidates by shaming them.

 

[mit26chell]

Did anyone happen to catch the guy in the Oxford shirt re-enacting the 'it's happening! GIF in the video posted above?! So funny.

 

[Brett85]

They just blasted this video out to their supporters today

 

[CPUd]

 

[Brett85]

^^^Wow! Lol. I've never seen that one.

 

[seapilot]

They just figured out they needed to instruct their voters with 2 days to go?

Trump is all powerful. He doesn't need people to vote for him to win, he has already won. >>> normal thinking of Trump supporter.

 

[rich34]

Hopefully we'll get a good sense of the sheer number of support tomorrow based on how big a crowd shows up for the rally. Sure seemed like Rand had a good bit of support in the crowd during the debate.

 

[timosman]

They just blasted this video out to their supporters today

This is a mistake. Trump should not be using her, definitely not in Iowa.

 

[DavesNotHere]

IMO Trump's support will not turn out. His campaign has no gotv effort, has no "how to" on caucusing and generally no structure at all. I think he will underperform in IA. Unfortunately that would mean Cruz, not Rand wins IA. Cruz has a real campaign in place in IA.

FYI- Trump does have a "how to caucus" video. It has over 210k views and was Published on Jan 16, 2016

 

[timosman]

I do not know, but all the people Trump surrounds himself with, do not look credible nor inspiring. You would have to be a total sheep in order to participate.

I think Trump's candidacy is a test of gullibility of the general public. How desperate you must be in order to believe me? Hint: Just look at all the people around me if you do not want to listen what I am saying. Still not enough??? Oh, fuck it. Now I am getting desperate.

 

[eleganz]

He has to hope and pray that Trump supporters surge to the caucus and Trump wins big swamping cruz and rubio. If cruz and rubio finish 2 and 3 close to trump then Rand might as well pack it in

Completely false analysis, Rand would benefit from a strong Rubio finish. Strong Cruz finish not so good.

 

[adam220891]

Hopefully we'll get a good sense of the sheer number of support tomorrow based on how big a crowd shows up for the rally. Sure seemed like Rand had a good bit of support in the crowd during the debate.

I looked up the venue and it seems under 2k capacity (just a guess). Surprisingly small

 

[Badger Paul]

"The anecdotal evidence from the reporters on the ground doesn't square with the DMR/Bloomberg Poll. That doesn't mean it'll be wrong. It just means that someone's wrong at this point. The point is, we won't know who is wrong for another 48 hours. At that point, we'll have a much clearer picture of things."

Actually this will be a good test of whether organization is essential or overrated in Iowa. Two of the top three candidates in Iowa have very little in regards to on-the-ground organization and relying on what they've gained in free media to push them over-the-top. Cruz has good organization and all things being equal would probably win because of that. Yet if there's a high turnout like they're saying (130,0000 plus) then Trump looks in good shape.

 

[Badger Paul]

The Republican caucus procedures are actually quite simple: you go to your precinct, listen to the speeches, vote by secret ballot, then leave unless you really want to be a county delegate. It's not asking a Trump supporter a lot to do it and I'm sure they've probably caucused at least once before (they don't do it very often because they saw no reason or compelling candidate to do so until Trump came along.)

 

[brandon]

We're not hoping for a thing here, we're working to deliver Iowa to Rand.

Are you there? I was in new Hampshire for Ron Paul in 2007. I know how it goes. When you surround yourself with other die hard supporters, its hard to imagine an outcome where you couldn't win. Until the results come one. Hundreds or thousands of you packed in a room, slight drunk, having the time of your life.... And then boom. The results match the polls. Single digits. Been there. Hope better for you guys, but id temper my expectations.

 

[RDM]

I am hearing talk about poll analyst that say something is NOT being talked about regarding the Des Moines Register Poll. It polled potential caucus goers from January 26th to the 29th. Well the 29th was the day after the debate. Apparently, Rand was at 9% on that day alone! His best day of polling yet in Iowa! But it averaged out to 5% overall! Umm....that means that debate made a difference!

Anyone else see people talking about this?

 

[Crashland]

I am hearing talk about poll analyst that say something is NOT being talked about regarding the Des Moines Register Poll. It polled potential caucus goers from January 26th to the 29th. Well the 29th was the day after the debate. Apparently, Rand was at 9% on that day alone! His best day of polling yet in Iowa! But it averaged out to 5% overall! Umm....that means that debate made a difference!

Anyone else see people talking about this?

source?

 

[LibertyEagle]

Completely false analysis, Rand would benefit from a strong Rubio finish. Strong Cruz finish not so good.

Don't think so. The establishment/media is pushing Rubio strongly. If Rubio wins, I'm afraid he's going to take off.