Rand's average poll numbers

[DevilsAdvocate]

nevermind, I was thinking of the CNBC, which also did have more than 1 sig fig. Paul, Kasich, Christie were listed at 3.00 (thought it was just 3), I remember discussion about how they determined the tierbreaker.

The first CNN debate scored like this:

There is absolutely NO WAY they could have polling to an accuracy of three decimal places. Absolutely no way in hell. How are they pulling it off?

 

[SilentBull]

If the network rounds up to the nearest 1, 3.5 will round up to the 4% needed to get Rand included.

Yeah, that'd be nice. Although I doubt it because they already set the national threshold to 3.5%. They didn't make that one a round number. They can always change the rule though. But will they? They also could decide to use the CBS/YouGov poll. Hoping...

 

[Joeinmo]

You are incorrect about the CBS poll, actually it is part phone and part answer the questions online after the person being polled has been contacted to participate.






According to the polls Rand should make the CNN debate in Las Vegas


Qualifications are 3.5% nationally or 4% in Iowa or NH, Rand is 3.2% Nationally as of today close in Iowa and passing muster in New Hampshire.




In NH, a total of 6 CNN-recognized polls have been released since October 29 : Monmouth(3%), WBUR(3%), WBUR(5%), Fox(3%), CBS(6%) Monmouth 2nd poll (4%) Rand's average = 4

however about 3-4 more polls will come out by next Sunday


There is some mis-information on the cbs poll that it doesn't qualify because it's an online poll, but that's not true. It's part online and part telephone so it does qualify.


From the polling sample:


"YouGov/CBS also randomly selected persons from voter registration lists who had previously voted in primary elections and contacted them by phone. A total of 20017 registeredvoters were contacted by phone and the YouGov sample includes 1290 phone recruits."


Note: there are a host of polls that were used in other debates that Rand is doing well in like Rueters, but CNN is not using them as one of their "recognized" polls.

 

[CPUd]

There is absolutely NO WAY they could have polling to an accuracy of three decimal places. Absolutely no way in hell. How are they pulling it off?

I'm going to make a guess here and say division.

 

[dusman]

You are incorrect about the CBS poll, actually it is part phone and part answer the questions online after the person being polled has been contacted to participate.

According to the polls Rand should make the CNN debate in Las Vegas

Qualifications are 3.5% nationally or 4% in Iowa or NH, Rand is 3.2% Nationally as of today close in Iowa and passing muster in New Hampshire.

In NH, a total of 6 CNN-recognized polls have been released since October 29 : Monmouth(3%), WBUR(3%), WBUR(5%), Fox(3%), CBS(6%) Monmouth 2nd poll (4%) Rand's average = 4

however about 3-4 more polls will come out by next Sunday

There is some mis-information on the cbs poll that it doesn't qualify because it's an online poll, but that's not true. It's part online and part telephone so it does qualify.

From the polling sample:

"YouGov/CBS also randomly selected persons from voter registration lists who had previously voted in primary elections and contacted them by phone. A total of 20017 registeredvoters were contacted by phone and the YouGov sample includes 1290 phone recruits."

Note: there are a host of polls that were used in other debates that Rand is doing well in like Rueters, but CNN is not using them as one of their "recognized" polls.

Ah, that's interesting. It will be interesting to see if they do in fact include the poll.

 

[SilentBull]

however about 3-4 more polls will come out by next Sunday

Are you sure about this? I'm thinking we may see one more in Iowa. Not expecting much more than that.

 

[Robrank]

6% in IA or 6% in NH is needed now. 6 days left.

A new CNN/ORC New Hampshire poll shows Rand at 2%.

 

[CPUd]

A new CNN/ORC New Hampshire poll shows Rand at 2%.

That's not new, we know about that one. http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...-WMUR-poll-release-Tuesday-12-8-15-(-Rand-2-)

 

[SilentBull]

A new CNN/ORC New Hampshire poll shows Rand at 2%.

Yeah, right now we need 6% in Iowa, but if they count the CBS/YouGov poll in NH, then he can get in with a new 6% poll in NH.

 

[Joeinmo]

Rand @ 4% in new Iowa Monmouth poll

Rand hit 4% in the new Iowa Monmouth Poll released yesterday


https://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/3...1087/de240398-df23-47b6-8470-91977d38b749.pdf

In this thread we will calculate the average of Rand's polling numbers to determine whether he'll be in the main stage or in the undercard stage. I hope members update this thread every time a poll is released until December 13.

First I will layout the criteria according to CNN:



All the polls figures obtained from RCP :

National polls recognized by CNN, there are 9 polls that are conducted starting October 29: NBC(2%), Quinnipiac (2%), McClatchy(5%), Fox(4%), Bloomberg(3%), ABC(3%), Fox(2%), Quinnipiac (2%) and CNN(1%). Rand's average= 2.6

In Iowa, several polls conducted since October 29 but only 3 polls are recognized by CNN: CBS(2%), CNN(2%) and Quinnipiac(5%). Rand's average= 3.0

In NH, a total of 5 CNN-recognized polls have been released since October 29 : Monmouth(3%), WBUR(3%), WBUR(5%), Fox(3%), CBS(6%). Rand's average = 4.0

Based on those current polls, Rand is eligible to appear in the prime-time main stage debate as he meets the criteria in NH average polls. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong and contribute as much as you like.

 

[derek4ever]

You are incorrect about the CBS poll, actually it is part phone and part answer the questions online after the person being polled has been contacted to participate.






According to the polls Rand should make the CNN debate in Las Vegas


Qualifications are 3.5% nationally or 4% in Iowa or NH, Rand is 3.2% Nationally as of today close in Iowa and passing muster in New Hampshire.




In NH, a total of 6 CNN-recognized polls have been released since October 29 : Monmouth(3%), WBUR(3%), WBUR(5%), Fox(3%), CBS(6%) Monmouth 2nd poll (4%) Rand's average = 4

however about 3-4 more polls will come out by next Sunday


There is some mis-information on the cbs poll that it doesn't qualify because it's an online poll, but that's not true. It's part online and part telephone so it does qualify.


From the polling sample:


"YouGov/CBS also randomly selected persons from voter registration lists who had previously voted in primary elections and contacted them by phone. A total of 20017 registeredvoters were contacted by phone and the YouGov sample includes 1290 phone recruits."


Note: there are a host of polls that were used in other debates that Rand is doing well in like Rueters, but CNN is not using them as one of their "recognized" polls.

Do you know if the latest national poll that has rand at 4% from cbs is included in the debate requirements and how does rand do?

 

[Joeinmo]

New Monmouth Iowa Poll shows Rand at 4%

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

I honestly think the party elites like having Rand Paul's views represented on the stage. It adds diversity, which is really what they're going for this time around. Notice how they pushed Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina as an example. I think he's got a good shot at making it.

The one person that absolutely wants him gone is Tronald Dump

 

[CPUd]

New Monmouth Iowa Poll shows Rand at 4%

That's not new, we know about that one: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?486313-Rand-at-4-in-new-Monmouth-Poll