Rand Paul Endorses Gary Johnson for Senate.

RJ Liberty said:
Why on earth would 100% of the undecideds need to support him?
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Pretty close to that many would for him to win the general election. And that's assuming that the 21% who say they support him stick with him, which is overly optimistic in the first place. You're the one who mentioned 30% being undecided as somehow strengthening the case that he could possibly win. All I'm doing is pointing out how nonsensical that is.

To say he has as good as a 1 in 1,000,000 chance of winning is to paint a pretty rosy picture of this situation for him.
 
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Superfluous Man said:
Most of the R's support comes to 6%.
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Superfluous Man said:
Pretty close to that many would for him to win the general election. And that's assuming that the 21% who say they support him stick with him, which is overly optimistic in the first place. You're the one who mentioned 30% being undecided as somehow strengthening the case that he could possibly win. All I'm doing is pointing out how nonsensical that is.

To say he has as good as a 1 in 1,000,000 chance of winning is to paint a pretty rosy picture of this situation for him.
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There is plenty of time for him to change minds, the odds may be against him but not by as much as you think.
 
If FDR could make booze street-legal in 1933, why should Democrats have ALL the fun!!!!
 
Swordsmyth said:
There is plenty of time for him to change minds, the odds may be against him but not by as much as you think.
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Exactly. The idea that Gary would need to get "100% of the undecideds" is ridiculous. This is a single poll, made shortly after Gary announced his candidacy, in a fluid election which won't be held for months. Gary already has a $100,000 war chest, and as former governor of the state, he has name recognition.
 
RJ Liberty said:
Exactly. The idea that Gary would need to get "100% of the undecideds" is ridiculous. This is a single poll, made shortly after Gary announced his candidacy, in a fluid election which won't be held for months. Gary already has a $100,000 war chest, and as former governor of the state, he has name recognition.
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Hold on a second. Earlier, this poll, which looks surprisingly and even unreasonably positive for GJ, that you're now discounting as a single poll, was the whole basis for your saying he had a real chance of winning the whole election.

If this poll isn't a good enough reason to say that (and I agree that it isn't by any stretch of the imagination), then what is?

At this point, we have really no good reason to think he'll even do as well as this poll shows. He probably won't get 20%, and he probably won't beat the Republican, to say nothing of the Democrat. People are always more comfortable saying they'll support 3rd party candidates in polls than they are in the actual voting booth. But even if this poll does prove accurate, it doesn't give us any reason to say that his odds of winning are better than 1 in 1,000,000.
 
Superfluous Man said:
Hold on a second. Earlier, this poll, which looks surprisingly and even unreasonably positive for GJ, that you're now discounting as a single poll
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I'm not discounting the poll. I'm saying it's a single poll. Which it is. The fact that it's a single poll should be pretty obvious. Stating that it's a single poll shouldn't be controversial. Why do you have a problem with me stating that it's a single poll? It is. Poll numbers will go up or down. If a LP candidate has $100,000 available for campaign spending, it's possible that those poll numbers will continue to climb. Are you saying it's not possible?

But even if this poll does prove accurate, it doesn't give us any reason to say that his odds of winning are better than 1 in 1,000,000.
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Well, clearly you have calculated the odds, and understand math better than others here, so I'll leave you to your calculations. I will continue to believe that a well-known and well-funded candidate polling at 21% in a three-party run months before the election has a chance, and you can continue to believe that he does not.
 
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