Rand Paul Endorses Gary Johnson for Senate.

RJ Liberty said:
I'm not discounting the poll. I'm saying it's a single poll. Which it is. The fact that it's a single poll should be pretty obvious. Stating that it's a single poll shouldn't be controversial. Why do you have a problem with me stating that it's a single poll? It is. Poll numbers will go up or down. If a LP candidate has $100,000 available for campaign spending, it's possible that those poll numbers will continue to climb. Are you saying it's not possible?



Well, clearly you have calculated the odds, and understand math better than others here, so I'll leave you to your calculations. I will continue to believe that a well-known and well-funded candidate polling at 21% in a three-party run months before the election has a chance, and you can continue to believe that he does not.
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I totally agree that it's a single poll. And that's why its significance shouldn't be blown up into leading anyone to think it means GJ has a serious chance of winning.

Knowing this doesn't require that I know more about math than very many people. The great majority here know that GJ doesn't have a serious chance, and know that this poll, even with with GJ's dubiously good showing in it, doesn't suggest that he does.

Incidentally, here's a more recent poll where he's now in a distant third with 16%.
https://reason.com/blog/2018/09/17/gary-johnson-running-a-distant-third-in

We who have seen versions of this story played out time and again with third party candidates know what to expect. On election day, he may well have a very good showing for a third party candidate. But it will be in the ballpark of half of what earlier polls predicted. When people are taking pre-election polls that they know don't really matter, they're a lot more willing to take a stand they see as radical in support of a third party than they are in the actual election.
 
Superfluous Man said:
I totally agree that it's a single poll. And that's why its significance shouldn't be blown up into leading anyone to think it means GJ has a serious chance of winning.
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PLEASE stop.

I thought I made it very clear with my message, "I'll leave you to your calculations. I will continue to believe that a well-known and well-funded candidate polling at 21% in a three-party run months before the election has a chance, and you can continue to believe that he does not." that I was hoping to end this conversation with you. I was hoping you would understand that I was not interested in further bizarre conversations with you, where you made up numbers out of your head, such as "1 in 1,000,000 chance".

Please do not respond to this message. Please do not continue to reply to me tell me how wrong I am. I already know it was very, very wrong of me to state that Gary Johnson had "a chance" with a big poll number. Clearly, he has no chance, and you will continue to make sure I am aware of that.

Although I registered years late, I recall a time when there was room for positive discussion of liberty-minded candidates at RPF. Clearly, that time has passed. I very much regret that I said he had a chance. It's very clear that he has no chance.
 
RJ Liberty said:
PLEASE stop.

I thought I made it very clear with my message, "I'll leave you to your calculations. I will continue to believe that a well-known and well-funded candidate polling at 21% in a three-party run months before the election has a chance, and you can continue to believe that he does not." that I was hoping to end this conversation with you. I was hoping you would understand that I was not interested in further bizarre conversations with you, where you made up numbers out of your head, such as "1 in 1,000,000 chance".

Please do not respond to this message. Please do not continue to reply to me tell me how wrong I am. I already know it was very, very wrong of me to state that Gary Johnson had "a chance" with a big poll number. Clearly, he has no chance, and you will continue to make sure I am aware of that.

Although I registered years late, I recall a time when there was room for positive discussion of liberty-minded candidates at RPF. Clearly, that time has passed. I very much regret that I said he had a chance. It's very clear that he has no chance.
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Don't let the trolls get you down, he has a chance.
 
The latest poll in New Mexico (taken earlier this week) has Gary trailing Heinrich (D) by just 7 points: 35% to 28% Rich (R) trails in a distant third, with 10%. Gary is in the New Mexico newspapers every day, now, doing interviews with all the major newspapers.
 
In all the polls, by L groups, R groups, D groups, or outside pollsters, L+R is close to D (and usually beats D).

And I'd expect most of the undecided votes to go to either L or R, since that split is probably the main source of voter indecision.

So, if the GOPer can be persuaded to drop out, former governor Gary has a very real chance.

P.S. Getting the GOPer to drop is the real problem. The GOP establishment would surely prefer a D to an L in that seat. On the other hand, if it becomes clear that the D will definitely win a three way race, and Gary has a large lead in the polling over the R (so that no one could reasonably expect Gary to drop), the lower ranks of the party might be able to put enough pressure on the R to drop simply out of their hatred for the D (and misguided belief that Ls and Rs have more in common than Ds and Rs).
 
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r3volution 3.0 said:
In all the polls, by L groups, R groups, D groups, or outside pollsters, L+R is close to D (and usually beats D).

And I'd expect most of the undecided votes to go to either L or R, since that split is probably the main source of voter indecision.

So, if the GOPer can be persuaded to drop out, former governor Gary has a very real chance.

P.S. Getting the GOPer to drop is the real problem. The GOP establishment would surely prefer a D to an L in that seat. On the other hand, if it becomes clear that the D will definitely win a three way race, and Gary has a large lead in the polling over the R (so that no one could reasonably expect Gary to drop), the lower ranks of the party might be able to put enough pressure on the R to drop simply out of their hatred for the D (and misguided belief that Ls and Rs have more in common than Ds and Rs).
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I do wish Rich (R) would drop out, as he has no chance (he's now polled at 10-14% in four of the last five polls). The number of Independents in the state is huge: nearly a third of voters.
 
The latest poll has Gary within the margin of error of beating Heinrich. Rich should definitely drop out at this point, as his polling seems to be trending towards single digits.
 
Friday's debate on KOAT-TV went well for Gary. KOAT is the biggest TV station in New Mexico, and the debate was widely viewed across the state. The debate also aired on C-SPAN.
 
Congratulations to Gary Johnson for his strong showing with 15% of the vote. He did as well as anyone could have reasonably hoped.
 
specsaregood said:
Yes, congratulations for doing >10% less than the polls cited above. Guess those polls were fake news.
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They exaggerated his support, as early polls often do with third-party candidates. Attentive readers of them mentally applied a corrective factor to them to better gauge what they really indicated about how well GJ would likely do in the actual election. Frankly, I'm somewhat surprised he came as close to those polls as he did. Those who thought he could potentially do even better than those polls were either deluding themselves or just haven't been around long enough to know this would happen.
 
Cue the Kane and Kodos segment of The Simpsons Treehouse of Horror VII.. Oh, wait. You can't, all videos of just that segment were long since scrubbed from YouTube. Must have been offensive to... to... some old, rich white guys.

Well then, cue the whole episode, so people can skip to the last third!



Good luck getting it to load. But of course, luck isn't needed. What is required is an electronic funds transfer. It's no longer possible to view this classic piece of dissent without Big Brother knowing about it.

For those who aren't familiar, this is the 1996 episode where candidates Bill Clinton and Bob Dole are revealed to be evil aliens Kane and Kodos, wearing disguises and intent on enslaving the earth. When the plot is revealed, someone in the crowd (Lennie, iirc) says no problem, just vote for Perot. Kane and Kodos then say, 'Go ahead, throw your vote away,' and laugh maniacally while waving their tendrils and spewing spit.

Well, there were lots of people in New Mexico who threw their votes away. And it wasn't the Johnson voters who did it.

The really weird thing is, socialists like Bernie Sanders can go off the reservation and get elected. Republicans are so scared to buck the herd they will vote for people who converted from Democrat only yesterday over a principled conservative not wearing that R ten times out of ten. No wonder we're up to our necks in RINOs. The overwhelming majority of Republicans are literally incapable of holding their party accountable. They're so scared of their votes getting split off from the herd, they couldn't do it even if they wanted to.
 
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Superfluous Man said:
They exaggerated his support, as early polls often do with third-party candidates. Attentive readers of them mentally applied a corrective factor to them to better gauge what they really indicated about how well GJ would likely do in the actual election. Frankly, I'm somewhat surprised he came as close to those polls as he did. Those who thought he could potentially do even better than those polls were either deluding themselves or just haven't been around long enough to know this would happen.
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True enough, but people that promote obviously fake polling numbers for longshot candidates only do their own favorite candidate a disservice in the long run as people end up being disappointed. I could reason with tweaking a poll so that the numbers come out a handful of pts 2-4% better in your favor to make it look like a real race, but not this horseshit.
 
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