Ron got 26k in 2012 when the Democrats didn't have a contest, so some of Ron's supporters are surely going for Bernie this time. The bigger defection though will be to all the Republican outsiders that were not there in '12, Trump in particular. The fatal conceit is to believe all of those 26k in 2012 were 'true believers' like those of us who are/have been activists for the Pauls. For Rand, 15k out of 125k votes would be quite an accomplishment that would be 12% and make him a big story coming out of Iowa.
Now consider all those people who felt they could not support Ron in 2012, those people who bought into the "unelectable" narrative. Those people who felt they could not listen to or support a candidate who wasn't particularly "polished" for TV viewing. Those people who felt that Ron Paul did not reflect the GOP.
I'm pretty sure there will be a significant number of people on the flip side of what you are saying. You are talking about people who supported Ron who may not support Rand, and I guess that is somewhat valid, although I'm yet to hear from anyone who supported Ron in 2012 and this time is supporting establishment candidate x or y. You should remember though that there will be a significant number of people for whom the opposite is true. They were not onboard for whatever reason in 2012, but feel differently this time around, when it comes to a young senator with a more effective delivery style and who
seems more relevant as a GOP candidate.
Wrong or right, the prevailing attitude was that Ron didn't actually stand a chance of winning, and we had the success that we had despite that attitude.
Hard as they try to convince people that the same is true of Rand, it clearly doesn't stick. Show me a straw poll Rand has not won. Show me another GOP candidate who beats the Dem candidates in a match-up poll. Rand is entirely electable, and it shows. I imagine that if this had been a 2 or 3 horse race as in previous years, we'd be strolling to the nomination.
It will end up being a 2 or 3 horse race pretty soon, and when it is, and people can see that Rand is in the race, then peoples minds will focus. Who is the least electable candidate in a general - Trump. And the most - Rand. Who is
actually a
real conservative?
I actually don't believe that this will come down to the die hard Ron supporters in the end. To get us there they will be vital. But in the end, when Republican voters have a clear cut choice, and they know who is in and who is out of the race and what those candidates stand for, I think then we'll find that we end up with more support from more quarters than we could have imagined. All we need is for the field to narrow to 2 or 3 candidates, I think then we will win a decent proportion of your average Joe GOP voter (whom everyone seems to be discounting) along side the youth and minority support which we already have.
