Rand on the Debate Bubble for CNBC

[Feelgood]

Wow, in by the skin of his teeth. Hopefully it holds.

 

[limequat]

As far as I can tell, the only thing that changes is that Graham wouldn't be invited at all.

The next couple of polls could change things though.

 

[erowe1]

Rand is being hammered daily.

That will help more than hurt I think.

 

[jonhowe]

This is not looking good. We're only in because of ROUNDING. And the anti-Rand propaganda is EVERYWHERE this week. Rand needs to change something to keep his spot!

 

[limequat]

Disagree.
According to the reuters poll he is trending up past 5%. Note that he's been making a lot of media appearances lately.

 

[jkob]

the JV debate would at least let Rand get speaking time, they'll get their Rand-Graham showdown and he'll seem like the biggest star in the thing, I can't imagine the media pumping him up afterwards tho

probably try to get a Lindsay Graham surge going hahaha

 

[Jonderdonk]

probably try to get a Lindsay Graham surge going hahaha

"Lindsey Graham, a fresh, young face with bold new ideas for the Republican Party."

 

[RonPaulGeorge&Ringo]

They're not using Reuters.

Disagree.
According to the reuters poll he is trending up past 5%. Note that he's been making a lot of media appearances lately.

 

[RonPaulGeorge&Ringo]

If the RNC keeps Rand out of the debate, he needs to show some balls and start doing his own debates. Take up the idea to debate Sanders, maybe some of the other Dems if interested, Gary Johnson, whatever...

Rand is being hammered daily. They will try to press his poll numbers just below the threshold. If they succeed, the campaign is over. The JV debate would mean the end of the road.

It all comes down to the next couple weeks of rigged polling.

 

[Paul4Prez]

Of course they want to try to exclude Rand Paul -- this debate will focus on the economy.

Being off the main stage with Trump might not be so bad though -- Rand could clean up on the B-teamers.

2.5 percent is certainly likely though, and could push Christie and Kasich to the minors.

 

[Paul4Prez]

Here's the current Real Clear Politics averages (which CNBC won't use, but gives an idea):

Trump 23.3
Carson 16.3
Fiorina 11.8
Rubio 9.5
Bush 9.0
Cruz 6.2 (all above this line are pretty much a lock)

Kasich 3.3
Huckabee 3.0
Christie 3.0
Paul 2.3 (these 4 are on the bubble)

Jindal 0.5
Santorum 0.5
Pataki 0.3
Graham 0.2
Gilmore -- not even tracked (these guys are hoping for a JV invite)

Looking at the numbers, it appears they are trying to exclude Paul and include Christie and Kasich, but they are rounding up so as not to exclude their favored candidates. Hopefully Paul can meet that low bar.

Now if I were a TV executive, I would just say it takes 5% to be in the A-team debate and 2% to be in the B-team debate, and let the no-hopers buy ads. That would split the field 6-4 right now and make the both debates more appealing to viewers than they will be if 10 guys are in the primetime contest and 3 or 4 in the undercard.

 

[CPUd]

This is not looking good. We're only in because of ROUNDING. And the anti-Rand propaganda is EVERYWHERE this week. Rand needs to change something to keep his spot!

Not necessarily. I expect 1 of the top 10 to drop out before the debate, either Huck or Kasich, and 3 from the bottom 5. All Rand needs to do is stand his ground against whatever attacks are going on now and pick up a few points from those leaving the race so they will start asking Christie when is he going to drop instead of Rand.

 

[limequat]

Not necessarily. I expect 1 of the top 10 to drop out before the debate, either Huck or Kasich, and 3 from the bottom 5. All Rand needs to do is stand his ground against whatever attacks are going on now and pick up a few points from those leaving the race so they will start asking Christie when is he going to drop instead of Rand.

Why would anybody drop out this early?

 

[erowe1]

Why would anybody drop out this early?

Mainly because of money. This isn't early. Several have already dropped out.

 

[jbauer]

Besides political junkies who watches the 3rd of 10 debates 1/2 year from Iowa?

Here's another story about it on the DailyMail:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...e-Rand-Paul-kids-table-time-eating-alone.html

If he is forced down to the kiddie table, he might be the only candidate on the stage. Not sure if this is good or bad. On the good side of the ledger, he would literally have all the talk time. On the bad side of the ledger, how many people would tune in to watch?

 

[Chester Copperpot]

hell if rand was thrown into the kiddie debate by himself he should just turn it into a town hall Q&A

 

[jllundqu]

I'm going to say something not popular here, just for a second.

Right now, because its early, the 2nd tier debate would actually be just fine.

Fewer candidates, more talk time, AND (the most interesting point), the 55+ demographic that Rand needs the most help with, THEY are the ones who watch a 6pm debate to go to bed at 9pm. They dont like staying up till 11pm-12am trying to watch the main debate.

Fewer candidates means Rand can focus on his message more and worry less about having to defend himself against shots.

AND, 2nd tier doesnt mean you're doomed...Fiorina moved from 2nd to 1st.

Just something to chew on.

I couldn't disagree more. Moving to the kids table at this point would kill his fundraising and feed into the manufactured meme that he is on his way out the door.

 

[amartin315]

call me crazy but I think cnbc actually wants paul on that stage. he talks about economic subjects in a different way from the rest of them. cnbc invites people like peter schiff on for a reason. they want the "bearish" perspective because it drives a portion of their ratings.

i think cnbc is trying to eliminate as many as possible without eliminating rand, my hunch.

 

[EBounding]

call me crazy but I think cnbc actually wants paul on that stage. he talks about economic subjects in a different way from the rest of them. cnbc invites people like peter schiff on for a reason. they want the "bearish" perspective because it drives a portion of their ratings.

i think cnbc is trying to eliminate as many as possible without eliminating rand, my hunch.

I agree. If Rand's stays around 2% he'll be in the debate just for the ratings. He might get few/lousy questions, but he'll be there unless something seriously awful happens soon.

 

[twomp]

I hope that if Senator Paul gets in this debate, he uses the word "neo-con" more often. He needs to speak some truth. His "Guliani" moment needs to come soon or it will be too late.