Quinnipiac Florida Primary Poll Jan 19 to 23 (Pre and Post SC Primary #'s)

[stillhere]

CAUTION: PRE AND POST PRIMARY SPLITS HAVE LARGE MOE +/-6.2 PRE-SC PRIMARY and +/-5.3 POST-SC PRIMARY; +/- 4 overall

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 300"]
[TR]
[TD]Quinnipiac Florida Primary[/TD]
[TD]1/23 Total[/TD]
[TD]Post
SC Primary[/TD]
[TD]Pre
SC
Primary[/TD]
[TD]Net[/TD]
[TD]1/8
Poll[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Romney[/TD]
[TD]36[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]-3[/TD]
[TD]36[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gingrich[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]+14[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Santorum[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]-4[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]-9[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=1694

From January 19 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 601 Republican likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. The survey includes 254 voters surveyed January 19 - 21, before South Carolina results were announced, with a margin of error of +/- 6.2 percent, and 347 voters surveyed January 22 - 23, after the South Carolina results, with a margin of error of +/- 5.3 percent. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. ​

Paul's overall favor ability from the previous poll to this poll has increased a net 9 points in the positive direction!

 

[bluesc]

In every poll Newt takes the most from Ron. It puzzles me.

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

Only 250-350 people surveyed.

They call that polling ? There were 2 million ballots cast in 2008.

And then they come up with these high margins to keep themselves out of the wind in case they are wrong, gosh, they could also just poll a couple more people.

 

[stillhere]

In every poll Newt takes the most from Ron. It puzzles me.

Because people are idiotic enough to believe Newt is the only one that cannot stop Mittens.

 

[stillhere]

Only 250-350 people surveyed.

They call that polling ? There were 2 million ballots cast in 2008.

And then they come up with these high margins to keep themselves out of the wind in case they are wrong, gosh, they could also just poll a couple more people.

500+ people is good enough (even nationally). You don't necessarily need thousands of people to make a poll accurate. 4 points MOE is solid. 6.2 isn't good....they just split their responses into two...doesn't mean it is wildly inaccurate. I mean it isn't going to be accurate, but it definitely lets us see trends. Newt is definitely rising and Paul falling, even considering margin of error. Polls in Iowa showed the same (even with great MOE) with Santorum's rise.

 

[brandon]

The complete media blackout worked. Ron was gaining momentum big time after NH and they totally shut him down. We're back to the point where most people probably don't even know he's running anymore.

 

[AngryCanadian]

I still predict in Florida Santorum will get last place do people really want to vote for a guy who says moon terrorists?

 

[Philmanoman]

500+ people is good enough (even nationally). You don't necessarily need thousands of people to make a poll accurate. 4 points MOE is solid. 6.2 isn't good....they just split their responses into two...doesn't mean it is wildly inaccurate. I mean it isn't going to be accurate, but it definitely lets us see trends. Newt is definitely rising and Paul falling, even considering margin of error. Polls in Iowa showed the same (even with great MOE) with Santorum's rise.

Yes but couldnt there be a direct connection to those trends and oh...lets say...propagating the information to make it look like all of America supports this guy...when really they only polled 500 people?

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

500+ people is good enough (even nationally). You don't necessarily need thousands of people to make a poll accurate. 4 points MOE is solid. 6.2 isn't good....they just split their responses into two...doesn't mean it is wildly inaccurate. I mean it isn't going to be accurate, but it definitely lets us see trends. Newt is definitely rising and Paul falling, even considering margin of error. Polls in Iowa showed the same (even with great MOE) with Santorum's rise.

Sure but these are one of the smallest samples of voters so far. Even polls held in Iowa had a bigger sample.
Not saying that polls need thousands of people to represent accuracy, but it doesn't seem right that polls previously almost always had a sample twice as big or bigger, and yet the states those polls ran in were far smaller then Florida.

Apart from that, yes, Newt is rising, sadly I have to agree with you on that one. Although we have to see how that finally plays out.
Rather have Gingrich win Florida, discrediting Romney a little more. Then have the people realize Gingrich is unelectable, both delegate wise in the primary as percentage wise in the presidential election.

 

[Liberty74]

Winning early states matter.

The numbers look like Paul is trending down fast for coming in last in SC. It's going to be sad what a poll looks like when including all voters after the SC primary.

Everyone needs to stop bitching about the number of voters surveyed. That's why there is a margin of error.

 

[sailingaway]

That appearance that he has dropped out was not post primary but post running IN FLORIDA that he 'wasn't competing there'.

I don't like the perception either, but all the same, if he is going to probably come in in third or fourth place it is better that it is made clear it was the plan all along. the way to deal with this is do phone from home for the caucus states, so Ron's loss at this perception is made up with a bigger boost when he outperforms in the caucuses. Otherwise, if we don't do the work and that doesn't happen THEN it will have been the wrong decision. But that is US losing faith, not random people in Florida who aren't going to give him their delegates.

 

[pauliticalfan]

Sad to see how much SC hurt us, but we have to keep in mind what the strategy is in regards to FL.

 

[WD-NY]

How is Ron going to out-perform in caucus states when he will have zero momentum going into them? If we get 4th in FL, we're toast imo.

 

[Tyler_Durden]

Poll: Ron Paul holds steady, Rick Santorum slips in Florida
http://www.thestatecolumn.com/florida/slipping-rick-paul/

 

[Liberty74]

How is Ron going to out-perform in caucus states when he will have zero momentum going into them? If we get 4th in FL, we're toast imo.

Exactly. I don't understand why people in here don't get it. Perception matters. If Ron comes in fourth, the media will say he is done. The mass sheep will follow the news. That's how the game is played unless some unforeseen event knocks Newt or Romney down big time. It would have to be a scandal. I just don't see that happening.

 

[Liberty74]

Sad to see how much SC hurt us, but we have to keep in mind what the strategy is in regards to FL.

You also have to keep in mind the strategies against us i.e. news stories, voter perception, etc. The campaign has been awful at countering those strategies.

 

[goldpants]

You also have to keep in mind the strategies against us i.e. news stories, voter perception, etc. The campaign has been awful at countering those strategies.

You should keep some faith in the campaign until a few more caucuses take place. Winning a caucus is far different from a primary the size of SC. The demographics weren't favorable in SC nor are they in FL. The campaign tried to do what they could within reason to come in third in SC, they came up short. Now they play it conservative in FL and you complain, you can't have it both ways. No matter what the media says leading up to ME, MN, NV, CO, etc. ground support will matter and Newt/Santorum do not have a 1/5th of the organization RP has in those states. Placing first and seconds in those contests along with delegate gains will be huge. We must stay focused and positive, until those results prove otherwise. We have no choice.