Questions for those around in 08 and 12

[tsetsefly]

So I come on here every 2 years but mostly during the primaries, been around since 07 and want to get a perspective on how things are going right now. I have a few questions I was hoping some of you could answer:

1. Does it seem like most Ron supporters will support Rand this time around?

2. I remember how caucuses and primaries come down to local politics. So how are we doing in that regard? I remember last elections (2012) we made some gains in Iowa, Nevada and some other states. Is that still the case?

3. Comparing to Ron in 2012 what do you think Rand's chances are in the early primaries this year?

My very uninformed .02 :
-If we came damn close to winning Iowa, Rand certainly has a good chance this year to take it (or at least that's my impression)
- not sure what polling in NH shows, but you would think he has good chance there as well
- Rand is much more liked by SoCons and mainstream republicans than his father was and if we were able to put up a good fight with the media, establishment and mainstream republicans against us in 12 I think we certainly have a good shot this election, or at least I hope.

Thoughts?

 

[Anti Federalist]

1 - Depends. If we get shit on and told to hit the road and lied to, like what happened in 2012, probably not. If we are embraced as a valuable asset and listened to and not looked at like a bunch of kooks, then yes.

2 - Rand will probably be able to do well in IA and NH (especially with Mutt gone). Unless he gathers a ton of momentum, (meaning he wins both handily) he will die in the Warvangelical South.

3 - Better, at least so far. His "Big Tent" appeasement stances seemed to have helped slightly with the "mainstream" GOP crowd.

 

[Keith and stuff]

1. Does it seem like most Ron supporters will support Rand this time around?

Among the people I know in NH, I cannot use the word most. 1 or 2 people were just hired in NH to help with that issue.

3. Comparing to Ron in 2012 what do you think Rand's chances are in the early primaries this year?

Ron never had a chance in NH in 2012 because of all the work Mitt Romney had done in NH for so many years. Now that Romney isn't running Rand actually had a chance at winning. The field is open and 4 or 5 other candidates could also win.

 

[acptulsa]

I think this has been and is evolution, not the r3VOJution we envisioned. I think we are softening enough socon hearts that it's getting hard to define 'us' and 'them' in many county GOP organizations. I think it's encouraging that the powers that be seem more interested in causing us to lose faith, and in making people think that Rand's message won't actually appeal to independents and the tens of millions of betrayed Democrats in the general election (even though there's no question that it will).

I think it's now us against the mudslinging media. And unless they flat shut down the internet, we stand a very good chance of pulling this off.

 

[CaptUSA]

First, Welcome back! + rep

To answer you questions as I see them:
1. Most will, however probably not with the same fervency.
2. We've made some gains, but we quickly lost a lot of them. Seems that once Ron Paul dropped out of politics, the apathy returned in many regards. Our activism died out a little. Hopefully, it will pick back up with Rand. Of course, Rand should also be able to attract a decent amount of people who are already insiders.
3. Rand's chances are incredibly better. He actually has one. We all know the reasons, but Ron was not even acceptable to a large swath of GOP voters. Rand is. The trick is not to win over every voter 100%, but to keep him as an acceptable alternative.

 

[NoOneButPaul]

1 - Depends. If we get shit on and told to hit the road and lied to, like what happened in 2012, probably not. If we are embraced as a valuable asset and listened to and not looked at like a bunch of kooks, then yes.

2 - Rand will probably be able to do well in IA and NH (especially with Mutt gone). Unless he gathers a ton of momentum, (meaning he wins both handily) he will die in the Warvangelical South.

3 - Better, at least so far. His "Big Tent" appeasement stances seemed to have helped slightly with the "mainstream" GOP crowd.

I also agree with this assessment. I will only add that I think Rand's people will give two shits about Ron's supporters coming to help him. They are going to bank on large donors to drive them and will really dismiss all of us imo. I can personally say i'm not going to donate to his campaign until I see him prove otherwise (the fact Benton is back on board I think pretty much proves my point). If he doesn't do well in Iowa and NH he's going to find himself in a world of hurt until we get to Nevada.

 

[fisharmor]

1. Does it seem like most Ron supporters will support Rand this time around?

Not to the extent that Ron was supported. There will be few spontaneous groups.
The message for the last three years seems to have been "Rand is going to win by hoodwinking the Republican establishment into following him".
Some Ron supporters think this is a good idea.
Some others are wondering how bait-and-switch is a good political philosophy.
Others realize that time, talent, and money need not be given to Rand, since the point is to get the Republican rank-and-file behind him. So message received: we're not needed.

2. I remember how caucuses and primaries come down to local politics. So how are we doing in that regard? I remember last elections (2012) we made some gains in Iowa, Nevada and some other states. Is that still the case?

Again, all I've heard is that this is a media game at this point and we're just going to ignore the fact that they broke people's hips and shut down entire state conventions to keep his father out of power, and just hope it doesn't happen to Rand, too.

3. Comparing to Ron in 2012 what do you think Rand's chances are in the early primaries this year?

I think anything other than a 1st place finish in every one the first 10 primaries/caucuses is going to get written off.
The mainstream media will crown their champion - perhaps a new one every month, like in 2012, but a champion will be crowned nonetheless.
And it will not be Rand.
So anything less than a 1st place finish in 10 consecutive primaries - or something equally unignoreable (and equally ridiculously impossible) stands a good chance of being swept under the carpet.

 

[tsetsefly]

Thanks for your answers. There certainly doesn't seem to be much optimism here, I do think Rand will needs his father's supporters if he wants to win.

 

[Jeremy]

So I come on here every 2 years but mostly during the primaries, been around since 07 and want to get a perspective on how things are going right now. I have a few questions I was hoping some of you could answer:

1. Does it seem like most Ron supporters will support Rand this time around?

2. I remember how caucuses and primaries come down to local politics. So how are we doing in that regard? I remember last elections (2012) we made some gains in Iowa, Nevada and some other states. Is that still the case?

3. Comparing to Ron in 2012 what do you think Rand's chances are in the early primaries this year?

My very uninformed .02 :
-If we came damn close to winning Iowa, Rand certainly has a good chance this year to take it (or at least that's my impression)
- not sure what polling in NH shows, but you would think he has good chance there as well
- Rand is much more liked by SoCons and mainstream republicans than his father was and if we were able to put up a good fight with the media, establishment and mainstream republicans against us in 12 I think we certainly have a good shot this election, or at least I hope.

Thoughts?

1. Yes, but many are busy with other things at the moment. We need to reach out to them.

2. Can't answer this as I'm not in an important or very active state. It might be a little too early to tell.

3. Based on early polling and organization, Rand seems to be in a better position than Ron was.

 

[Jeremy]

There certainly doesn't seem to be much optimism here

Not sure if we are reading the same posts?

 

[Uriah]

1. Mostly yes. The Ron supporters I know personally support Rand but not with the same intensity. I hear of some people that will not support Rand but they are few and I wonder if they're blowing off steam and will come around.

2. I can only speak to Iowa. In my county we infuriated most of the establishment in 2008 and 2012. Things have calmed down now and bridges have been mended. The party regulars know our names and faces and generally like and respect us. Much will be determined by the campaigns of the presidential candidates. Messaging is key. If Rand screws that up then it will be hard for us to bring people to his side. I have not heard any outspoken dislike for Rand. I have heard much support for Carson and Cruz. Now with Walker in the mix things could be tough for Rand to gain a plurality. We've made tons of gains in Iowa but have lost many of those gains. Most of those losses were with the make-up of state party leadership. On a local level most of our success is still intact as far as I can tell.

3. I don't see Rand doing worse, relatively, than his father in Iowa. I think that is his 'floor' of support barring some sort of catastrophe.

 

[CPUd]

So I come on here every 2 years but mostly during the primaries, been around since 07 and want to get a perspective on how things are going right now. I have a few questions I was hoping some of you could answer:

1. Does it seem like most Ron supporters will support Rand this time around?

2. I remember how caucuses and primaries come down to local politics. So how are we doing in that regard? I remember last elections (2012) we made some gains in Iowa, Nevada and some other states. Is that still the case?

3. Comparing to Ron in 2012 what do you think Rand's chances are in the early primaries this year?

My very uninformed .02 :
-If we came damn close to winning Iowa, Rand certainly has a good chance this year to take it (or at least that's my impression)
- not sure what polling in NH shows, but you would think he has good chance there as well
- Rand is much more liked by SoCons and mainstream republicans than his father was and if we were able to put up a good fight with the media, establishment and mainstream republicans against us in 12 I think we certainly have a good shot this election, or at least I hope.

Thoughts?

1. Not everyone will immediately be on board. There are 2, maybe 4 people who won't support Rand if he goes on a run.

2. Most of the 2012 Paul supporters elected to the state GOPs and some of the locals have since been removed, but there are some exceptions. Some of these people (like AJ Spiker) have been hired for what will become Rand 2016.

3. If Huck or Walker is in, Rand will have a tough time doing anything better than 2nd in Iowa. I think he could beat Jeb in Iowa, and Jeb, Walker in NH.

 

[fr33]

There certainly doesn't seem to be much optimism here, I do think Rand will needs his father's supporters if he wants to win.

I don't necessarily want you to answer this question. I just want you to consider it...

What did all that optimism from the past 2 presidential elections really accomplish?

In my opinion optimism can be a positive factor as long as it doesn't become delusion. It's one thing to say "we're gonna win!" at the beginning. It's another thing to continue saying that when it's already a lost cause, and the campaign quits, and Ron's son endorses the obvious nominee, which is what many of us did.

 

[tsetsefly]

Not sure if we are reading the same posts?

In this thread I mean.

 

[Sola_Fide]

1. Does it seem like most Ron supporters will support Rand this time around?

Probably.

2. I remember how caucuses and primaries come down to local politics. So how are we doing in that regard? I remember last elections (2012) we made some gains in Iowa, Nevada and some other states. Is that still the case?

Not too good.

3. Comparing to Ron in 2012 what do you think Rand's chances are in the early primaries this year?

Very good.

My very uninformed .02 :
-If we came damn close to winning Iowa, Rand certainly has a good chance this year to take it (or at least that's my impression)
- not sure what polling in NH shows, but you would think he has good chance there as well
- Rand is much more liked by SoCons and mainstream republicans than his father was and if we were able to put up a good fight with the media, establishment and mainstream republicans against us in 12 I think we certainly have a good shot this election, or at least I hope.

Thoughts?

I agree.

 

[tsetsefly]

I don't necessarily want you to answer this question. I just want you to consider it...

What did all that optimism from the past 2 presidential elections really accomplish?

In my opinion optimism can be a positive factor as long as it doesn't become delusion. It's one thing to say "we're gonna win!" at the beginning. It's another thing to continue saying that when it's already a lost cause, and the campaign quits, and Ron's son endorses the obvious nominee, which is what many of us did.

Nothing, but the uphill battle Ron had was much more than Rand has, and he came 7-8 points away from winning Iowa. I thought that was a big accomplishment as well as gains made in local GOP positions (which might have been lost already).

What I am hoping for is the same people that were on these boards in 12 for Ron will be here for Rand in 16.

 

[fisharmor]

In my opinion optimism can be a positive factor as long as it doesn't become delusion. It's one thing to say "we're gonna win!" at the beginning. It's another thing to continue saying that when it's already a lost cause, and the campaign quits, and Ron's son endorses the obvious nominee, which is what many of us did.

I think the "optimism" behind Ron was the idea that we didn't have to play by the established rules.
We could, instead, play by the written rules - the ones that were were actually supposed to be using, not the ones that the powers-that-be were enforcing - and actually have a chance of getting somewhere.
The idea that we could learn the system and game it, and not feel bad about it, because the people who wrote those rules intended the system to be gamed this way.

The idea that we could organize on the internet in ways never seen before, could choose not to do fundraising the normal way and still succeed.

Things were moving. Progress was being made. We all knew our original guy wasn't going to win. But it wasn't about that - it was always about redefining everything. And redefining the way people get elected was an important part of that.

Then our new messiah stood in front of a camera and announced that all of that would be done away with. All of our new rules were going to be immediately retired, and we'd start sticking with the old rules from now on - starting with an endorsement.

There's a lot of good in Rand. He will make a fine candidate. I do hope he lights a fire under some asses, but mine is cold out and wrapped in asbestos.

As I've said before - Rand is a damned fine bacon cheeseburger. And there's ordinarily nothing wrong with bacon cheeseburgers.
Unfortunately, his father is 45 day dry aged pan fried prime rib. I ate quite a lot of it, and I'm never going to be in the mood for bacon cheeseburgers again.

 

[HVACTech]

The idea that we could learn the system and game it, and not feel bad about it, because the people who wrote those rules intended the system to be gamed this way.

on this, we can agree.

what we cannot agree on... is quitting.

 

[rp08orbust]

Warvangelical South

And don't forget the (maybe bigger?) Warman Catholic South, where Gingerich and Santorum did well.

 

[Smitty]

Rand and his followers will be allowed to participate long enough for them to get used to being a part of the system. Then Rand will be cut loose and his followers will be encouraged to throw their support to whatever pro war/Israel firster seem to have the best chance at the nomination.

Rand will be asked to endorse whoever that is.

My guess is that it will be Cruz,...but it's too early to say.