PPP South Carolina: Paul up 6 points

[shrugged0106]

This is the polling site I have bookmarked:
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/fivethirtyeight/primaries/south-carolina

They seemed pretty accurate for Iowa and NH, and they have Paul beating santorum significantly. I just hope that Paul can get the word out on Gingrich's poor family history. That should be a huge weak spot since Gingrich apparently has 40% of the evangelical vote according to the PPP. I really fear a Gingrich second far more than a santorum or huntsman second since Gingrich is actually a threat nationally.

No, he doesnt need to get into the personal life stuff. everyone already knows it and it will only paint Paul as negative when he is seen as positive given the Romney defense last week. Let the other jokers go that route and Ron take the high road.

 

[Revolution9]

All the arrogant people saying no less than 18 to 20%. I still cannot believe the arrogance on this board.

That right there is pure arrogance sonny boy. Ya oughta clam up if ya don't know the difference between a positive attitude and miasma filled garbage like you like to post.

Rev9

 

[Revolution9]

I've lived near SC all my life and it's a total mystery to me what the people there must see in Gingrich.

I think it's the Boss Hawg effect.

HTH
Rev9

 

[ItsTime]

At this rate Ron can win SC! Make the money bomb big!

http://ronpaul-2012.org/mbpledge_sc.html

 

[kylejack]

If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney.................................................... 63%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 28%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

I sure hope the rest of the country doesn't think this way.

 

[John F Kennedy III]

South Carolina: Romney 29, Gingrich 24, Paul 15, Santorum 14, Perry 6, Huntsman 5, Roemer 1

Economy top issue for SC voters and 35% trust Romney most on it to 25% for Gingrich, 16% for Paul

Who would be your second choice for
President?

Newt Gingrich ................................................. 20%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 9%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 17%

Which of the Republican candidates do you
trust the most on economic issues?
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 25%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 16%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 35%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable........................................................ 38%
Unfavorable .................................................... 52%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

If the Republican candidates for President
were just Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney.................................................... 63%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 28%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

What is more important to you when deciding
who to vote for: a candidate’s ability to beat
Barack Obama in the general election, or their
positions on the issues?

More concerned about a candidate’s ability to
beat Barack Obama........................................50%
Their positions on the issues .......................... 37%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

Committed to Candidate or Might Change Your Mind?

Candidate Base Strongly committed to that candidate Might end up supporting someone else
Ron Paul 16% 15% 14%
Mitt Romney 31% 33% 27%
Newt Gingrich 26% 27% 23%

Based on this the SC voters are SEVERELY uninformed. We need to find a way to fix this.

 

[kylejack]

Paul leads Romney 24-22 among non-Republicans. You know what that means...right? PHONEBANK.

We need to GOTV hardcore and we can actually do some damage, even if we can't win.

 

[parocks]

 

[parocks]

Paul leads Romney 24-22 among non-Republicans. You know what that means...right? PHONEBANK.

We need to GOTV hardcore and we can actually do some damage, even if we can't win.

Are we calling non Republicans in South Carolina?

The reason we phonebank is because it's what the campaign wants us to do. Unless we're calling non Republicans in South Carolina, phonebanking is unlikely to Get Out The non republican Vote. However, it's what campaigns do, is proven to work, etc etc etc. That's what most volunteers do on campaigns.

 

[parocks]

We have got to get a huge turnout of Dems and Independents.

18-29 Men

 

[Liberty Shark]

Anyone who doesn't realize how good this actually is must not remember the 2008 results in SC. In the 2008 Republican South Carolina Primary, Dr. Paul received 3.62% of the vote. This is about a 4.5X increase, meaning that according to my math, Dr. Paul has increased his support (so far) amongst South Carolina voters EVEN MORE than in Iowa and New Hampshire compared to the '08 results. Also, in 2008 Fred Thompson received just over 15% in SC. There is still plenty of time to gain even more.

 

[LoneWolf]

mm...

"Mitt Romney continues to hold a modest lead in South Carolina's Republican primary for President. He's at 29% to 24% for Newt Gingrich, 15% for Ron Paul, 14% for Rick Santorum, 6% for Rick Perry, 5% for Jon Huntsman, and 1% for Buddy Roemer."

Anyone see the problem?

Uh yeah there is 6% missing there...That only adds up to 94%

 

[trey4sports]

Uh yeah there is 6% missing there...That only adds up to 94%

undecided?

 

[FA.Hayek]

we failed miserably in SC in 2008.. but things are looking up!

 

[The Free Hornet]

18-29 Men

Since the cross tabs don't give that many details, it could be 18-45 or even 50 for Men. Reason is, we are 40% higher among men but only lose 30-45 by 5% (Romney 26%, Paul and Newt 21%). It is a given we are likely higher if 30-45 were broken down into Men and Women.

Regardless, if a demographic has us just a few percent under someone else, I say we promote that demographic as fertile ground.

 

[Voluntary Man]

RP with just 38/52 favorability.

With most Americans being TV-addled zombies, I'm surprised the constant media character assassinations haven't driven that number higher. That's actually a good sign. We can work with this. The only lie that hasn't been told about him, so far, its that he's a pedophile priest who earned merit badges for strangling kittens, as a member of the Hitlerjugend. Their propaganda is losing its potency. Good news.

 

[One Last Battle!]

Also worth noting, our best area is upcounty (where the Evangelicals and other religious folk live) by a fairly wide margin. We will want to focus a bit there, so that even if we don't win the state we win the districts to get some delegates.

 

[WD-NY]

NDAA

This + War with Iran.

I wish RevPac would focus on the Independents and DEMs since the campaign seems squarely focused on conservatives, tea partiers and republicans.

 

[braane]

I'm not great and finding old stats, but can anyone find something that gives us a breakdown of voter turnout in 08? Maybe we can extrapolate an expected result based on these new numbers?

2008 Results:

Male: 51%
Female: 49%

Democrat: 2%
Independent: 18%
Republican: 80%

Age 18-29: 10% (This should improve considerably, probably be closer to 15%)
Age 30-44: 23% (I expect this to be less)

Their 30% figure by PPP might be close, but I expect it be more balanced slightly in favor of 30-44.

Here are the exit polls:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#SCREP

 

[The_Ruffneck]

2nd is possible but it all depends on what happens in the debates