PPP Poll (1/1/12): Paul 20%, Romney 19%, Santorum 18%

[doronster195]

Results in Iowa:
Paul 20 (-4)
Romney 19 (-1)
Santorum 18 (+8)
Gingrich 14 (+1)
Perry 10 (+0)
Bachmann 8 (-3)
Huntsman 4 (+0)
Roemer 2 (+0)

For all that Paul still has a very decent chance at winning on Tuesday- it just depends on whether his unusual coalition of young voters and non-Republicans really comes out to caucus. Among actual Republican voters Paul is tied for 3rd place with Gingrich at 17%, behind Romney's 21% and Santorum's 19%. But with independents and Democrats who plan to vote, which we peg at 24% of the electorate, Paul leads with 30% to just 14% each for Santorum and Romney.

There's a similar divide along age lines. With seniors Paul is in only 5th place at 11%, well behind Romney's 27%, Gingrich's 19%, Santorum's 17%, and Perry's 12%. But with voters under 45, who we think will make a larger share of the electorate than they did in 2008, Paul's at 30% to 19% for Santorum and 14% for Romney.

If these young voters and independents really turn out for Paul on Tuesday he has a decent chance. But if it's a more traditional turnout Romney's chances are looking really good. As mentioned above he's winning with regular Republicans. He's winning with seniors. Most of the time if you're winning with those groups in Iowa you're going to win overall. Paul's unique appeal could confound some of the usual patterns about who turns out for these contests. But if it doesn't Romney or Santorum could come out on top...it looks like it's going to be a photo finish.

RCP Average for Iowa:
12/21 - 1/1 --
Romney 21.8
Paul 20.7
Santorum 15.5


Day By Day Results from PPP:

Sat:
Romney 21,
Paul 19,
Santorum 18,
Newt 14,
Perry 10.

Sun:
Paul 21 (+2),
Romney (-2)/Santorum 18,
Newt 14,
Perry 10

More:
https://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/01/headed-for-a-photo-finish-in-iowa.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...owa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html

 

[anewvoice]

HOT DAMN!

 

[rawful]

I can sleep a little better now.

 

[RonPaulFever]

So Santorum took votes from Romney. Perfect

 

[UtahApocalypse]

Yes!!

 

[rideurlightning]

Well now I can go play some video games. God speed Ron.

 

[Sublyminal]

Excellent, this is what I'm talking about, what's the MOE?

 

[isrow]

BOOM! Now I can go to sleep.

 

[Eryxis]

For some reason I feel better,even tho it's a tie.

 

[limequat]

breathe limequat, breathe

 

[ronpaulitician]

Don't go to sleep just yet. Paul's net favorability down 21 points.

 

[cordscords]

 

[jax]

Still in first! Good enough for me. A good turnover can turn that 20% into 29 or 30

 

[Okie RP fan]

I don't want to rely on polls...

The way I always look at it, is no matter where we are positioned, always act like we are polling 10 points behind.

This may cause some people to get comfortable. I just hope the ground game in Iowa keeps pushing and doesn't rest. Godspeed to them.

 

[Echoes]

It could end up that nobody cracks 20%.

 

[AngryCanadian]

Yes No More WARS!

 

[justatrey]

We'll take it! OK, this is probably uncalled for this time but we're still in first dammit!

 

[QWDC]

GREAT. Just survive one last day, unleash the Rand and GOTV.

 

[UtahApocalypse]

Time to dig into the crosstabs.......

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IA_101914.pdf

 

[Agorism]

That only leaves 5% left so not much undecideds.