PPP NH 10/16-10/18: Rand 8th at 4%

[CPUd]

Public Policy Polling surveyed 417 usual Republican primary voters and 393 usual Democratic primary voters from October 16th to 18th. The margin of error for the Republicans is +/-4.8% and for the Democrats it’s +/-4.9%. 80% of participants responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet.

Big story for Rand is the favorability increase, though most all the GOP candidates had positive favorability in this poll.

There's another group of candidates whose support for the nomination hasn't gone up much in the last couple months but who have improvement in their favorability numbers that could equate to at least the possibility of increased support further down the line. Chris Christie's improved 17 points from -11 (35/46) to +6 (45/39). Rand Paul's gone up 16 points from -15 (34/49) to +1 (41/40). And Jeb Bush has seen a 10 point improvement from -3 (38/41) to +7 (45/38).

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_102015.pdf


From Republicans:

This question, from Democrats:

This question, from Republicans:

 

[CPUd]

Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University also released a NH poll:

The results outlined in this report are based on a survey conducted by RKM Research and Communications on behalf of Franklin Pierce University and the Boston Herald. All interviews were conducted by paid, trained and professionally supervised interviewers.

The survey is based on a probabilistic sample 440likely Republican presidential primary voters in New Hampshire. Interviews were conducted by landline and cellular telephone, October14-17, 2015. The sampling margin of error is +/-4.7percent.

The data are weighted to adjust for probability of selection, respondent gender and respondent age. In addition to sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question wording effects, question order effects and non-response.More information available at www.rkm-research.com(603.433.3982).

http://www.bostonherald.com/news_op...nald_trump_tops_franklin_pierceherald_poll_at

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ NO FUCKING ONE BUT PAUL!! ^^^

 

[adam220891]

I have no second choice. I'd simply write Rand in.

 

[Austin]

The Firm Choice metric is an interesting one. That bodes well for us.

 

[Kotin]

PPP always seems to give Rand lower numbers than others so this is actually not bad at all


And I really think he is raising his favorable well and just needs to stick to his issues etc and not insult or talk about other candidates too much

 

[CPUd]

He has also been spending time in NH lately, especially at the radio stations giving extended interviews. Favorability seems to reflect how much attention the candidate is giving to NH.

 

[dusman]

Another really interesting metric here is under Favorability... the "Not Recognize" response. It means exactly what it implies I believe.. the polled voter does not recognize the name as opposed to simply being unsure of their favorability. There are still a lot of voters who aren't involved yet, as Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz have essentially less name recognition than Rand Paul in the poll.

Of course, that could be the democratic respondents I suppose.

 

[eleganz]

Shows how full of pralines Ted Cruz is. He keeps claiming he is winning over liberty support but half of his NH support is up for grabs while only a quarter is for Rand.

Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University also released a NH poll:

http://www.bostonherald.com/news_op...nald_trump_tops_franklin_pierceherald_poll_at

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ NO FUCKING ONE BUT PAUL!! ^^^

 

[65fastback2+2]

my favorite little nugget was the 2nd choice part.

rand has the highest 2nd choice rating (when you eliminate candidates that dont matter) at 46%

 

[CPUd]

my favorite little nugget was the 2nd choice part.

rand has the highest 2nd choice rating (when you eliminate candidates that dont matter) at 46%

That column means 46% of people who chose Rand 1st choice do not have a 2nd choice.

 

[jllundqu]

How is ANYONE seriously supporting TRUMP for President? Have we lost our MINDS?????

 

[CPUd]

Another NH poll released today. Apparently Bush has run an aggressive ad campaign there, which is why everyone is polling NH. SPOILER ALERT: it didn't help him.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a...ampshire-bloomberg-politics-saint-anselm-poll

 

[r3volution 3.0]

That column means 46% of people who chose Rand 1st choice do not have a 2nd choice.

Yup, which confirms the firmness metric; Rand's support is very deep, if narrow at the moment.

In other words, he's reached his floor, with nowhere to go but up.