PPP Minnesota:

[Kregisen]

There's another thread on the results already but 4% is the difference between 2nd and 4th, which is likely within the margin of error, so we have an extremely good shot at 2nd place, also especially after the nevada results it will be interesting to see how big of a turnout Santorum's supporters will have. It will come down to GOTV and hopefully we'll have it.

 

[muh_roads]

It is certainly anybody's game for 2nd. Are people really going to turn out for Santorum is the question...

 

[pauliticalfan]

RS may win MO, but if we turn up the heat here we could do well.

 

[BUSHLIED]

Similar to 2008 results. MN had also had four candidates. In 2008, Ron took four counties. This time he could take Benton County, nice name, lol. Also: Clay, Mahnomen, McLeod, Pine, and Stearns. He got second is all these counties. Romney won them. From what I understand, Ron held all of his counties from 2008 and only expanded them in 2012. In Iowa, Ron took several counties that Romney won in 2008. I think he won less of the counties that Huckabee won in IA. However, the MN counties that Huckabee won were smaller. So that is good news. I wonder how Santorum is polling so well when Romney took the majority of the counties last time. Did the people suddenly shift from Romney in 2008 to Santorum 2012? Seems unlikely. I wonder if the IA win for Santorum got coverage etc...and people are voting off of that. Or is Santorum playing the blocker of Paul again somehow.

PPP Poll Results:
Santorum = 33%
Romney = 24% -17%
Newt = 22%
Paul = 20% +4

2008 Final Results:

Romney = 41%
25,990

McCain = 22%
13,826

Huckabee = 20%
12,493

Paul = 16%
9,852


Assuming turnout is identical, the vote total with current polling looks like this:


Santorum = 20,513
Romney = 14,918
Newt = 13,675
Paul = 12,432

This leaves roughly 2,500 between 4th and 2nd place. If you assume slightly lower turnout and Ron's average increase in support for caucus including Nevada it would be 60% (IA +120%, NV 0% of total votes) or in MN's case another 7500 votes. Roughly 600 votes shy of 1st place.

It would look like this:

Santorum = 20,513 33.3%
Paul = 19,932 32.3%
Romney = 14,918 24.2%
Newt = 6,175 10%

Lower turnout I would assume we would win here. That would mean a 12.3 increase relative to what the polls are purporting.

I am going to predict a much tighter 3-way race for 1st. With Newt doing slightly better than 10%. I'd peg Ron at 25.5%. The question is from whom those votes come from. Ideally, you want soft santorum and gingrich supporters so that Ron is the anti-Romney. However, that means that Romney would hold his votes and likely win. Therefore, it seems plausible that Romney supporters defected among the rest. In Iowa, the last PPP poll reported that 16% of John McCain voters went to Paul. That would account for another 3.5% of the vote in MN. Anyway, it surely is going to be close based on everything we've seen in 2012 so far. MN could look much like IA if you ask me.

Worse case scenerio I predict is would look like this:

Santorum 29.9%
Romney 27.6%
Paul 25.5%
Newt 17%

 

[libertybrewcity]

WE CAN DO THIS. Santorum will have poor turnout because he doesn't have the grassroots or organization. It's anybodies game here. We can easily push this up to a victory if we get people to caucus in the major cities. Bring it on MN.

 

[nemt4paul]

Is this poll indication enough for everyone that we live in a nation full of idiots?

 

[cindy25]

organization is worth at least 5%, maybe 8; that would put Ron at 28.

 

[muh_roads]

Is this poll indication enough for everyone that we live in a nation full of idiots?

It is frustrating to see people vote for their demise. Americans just have no idea how bad the economy is about to get.

If anyone tells you Paul is too radical...just tell them "desperate times call for desperate measures". If we don't change course soon, the 2008 economic downturn will feel like a needle prick by comparison.

You ready for 50% unemployment America? It is coming. You better wake up.

 

[goldpants]

I have a great sense of calm regarding MN, I don't want to get cocky but I just feel something very big is about to unfold there for our movement. With the tricks played out in IA and NV, I think our supporters and the campaign are ready.

 

[RiversMcGee]

I'd be willing to bet if we won Minnesota, media is going to downplay it and talk about Mitt Romney getting 2nd/3rd and if Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich is the better social conservative to go against Romney.

 

[lordindra3]

The only real consolation I have from NV is that we were polling around 9-16% in NV with a REDICULOUS turn out (that I think was not even credible results)... The reason we did about as polls showed in Iowa is that the other candidates who are not nationally "organized" WERE ORGANIZED in Iowa. So this is different. If we get turn out (heaven help us!), we can win, I bet! Getting the most delegates, now that should be a gimme, but we need the media boost from a solid win and we need Stossel to win $1000 from Oreilly for betting Stossel that Dr. Paul wouldnt get a single state... Heaven smile on Liberty tomorrow, please!

Indra

 

[RDM]

organization is worth at least 5%, maybe 8; that would put Ron at 28.

As long as it's not organized like NV.

 

[Gravik]

Whats up with Frothy lately?

 

[Aratus]

^this^ on top of a 3~way
statistical tie for 2nd place

 

[Liberty74]

Expect fourth people. Maybe third if we are lucky.

 

[tbone717]

It is frustrating to see people vote for their demise. Americans just have no idea how bad the economy is about to get.

If anyone tells you Paul is too radical...just tell them "desperate times call for desperate measures". If we don't change course soon, the 2008 economic downturn will feel like a needle prick by comparison.

You ready for 50% unemployment America? It is coming. You better wake up.

The fact of the matter is that the downturn doesn't effect many Americans directly. I look around me here in Central PA, we live in a middle to upper middle class area, and of all the people I know only one was out of work for an extended period of time (and honestly that person was a low-skilled worker). I have two friends in the car business and while both state that business is slower than they would like it to be, neither one of them is lining up for food stamps. My business has grown year after year, maybe not at the best rate of growth but it has. My neighbor across the street just had their basement finished (at a cost of around 20K). And there have been a couple people near me that have gotten pools put in recently. When you walk around the malls here, they are still packed on the weekends and plenty of people have multiple bags in their hands. I just had a friend of mine leave one job for a better one, and the company he is now working for is hiring people - the average sales rep working for the company is making $1500 a week part time.

So yes, I understand the economic indicators are not good. I get it. My point is, that for most people they hear about the bad economy on the news, but in reality their lives are not that much different than they were four years ago. And while we may be on the path to higher unemployment and a further devalued dollar, until it actually hits home for most people, they will not make serious changes in the way they think and vote.

 

[Aratus]

if 2nd is so darn close! WHEN rick S slips
down, we get a new GOP pack leader!
this may be a statistical 4-way tie!!!

 

[speciallyblend]

This would be seriously pathetic.

we are talking about the gop so your spot on when you say pathetic!

 

[eqcitizen]

But what about this poll? How accurate are these guys (they have Ron in first)

 

[Drex]

Do they honestly poll a lot of Independents or college kids? Can they call the dorms of people or maybe there is 5-6 college kids living in a house w/o a home phone that are all voting for LIBERTY!