PPP Minnesota:

[Lord Xar]

PPP earlier today..."WTF?! Ron Paul could actually win MN!? You know what to do boys...Surge Santorum!!"

They really sent that out? That seems like they are onto the media/establishment manipulation to create fake surges and such.

 

[SovereignMN]

All caucuses start at 7pm. Santorum's push doesn't surprise me. They aren't organized though so a strong 2nd could mean we get a majority of delegates.

 

[Michael Landon]

Anyone know where we were polling at before the caucus in '08?

I'm not sure what we were polling at in Congressional District 8 prior to the 08 caucus but here are the results:

Mitt Romney - 2264 votes, 35.9%
Mike Huckabee - 1792 votes, 28.4%
John McCain - 1310 votes, 20.8%
Ron Paul - 944 votes, 15.0%
6310 total votes....


To put the total votes into perspective, Obama received 4,382 votes in St. Louis County alone.

A little info into CD8 from Wikipedia:

Minnesota's 8th congressional district covers the northeastern part of Minnesota. It is anchored by Duluth, Minnesota which is the fourth largest city in state.
Politically the district leans Democratic. However the DFLers in this district are not as liberal as their counterparts in the Twin Cities because 8th congressional district voters and politicians support conservative values such as outdoor hunting. Elected Republicans are few and far between; Republican strength is concentrated in the district's southern portion.

The district is currently represented by Republican Chip Cravaack, who defeated DFLer incumbent Jim Oberstar in 2010. Oberstar had represented the 8th congressional district since 1975; before his defeat Oberstar was the longest serving congressional representative from Minnesota. The seat had been held by the DFL for 63 years before Cravaack was elected.

- ML

 

[BrittanySligar]

We were polling at around 8%. But Mitt was polling at around 25% and turned out 40%.

 

[tbone717]

PFH is doing MN turnout. Let's hope that we have ID'd about 30,000 voters.

 

[The Gold Standard]

PFH is doing MN turnout. Let's hope that we have ID'd about 30,000 voters.

We better ID 100,000 voters if only a quarter of them show up to vote.

 

[sailingaway]

PPP is pretty accurate polling Ron on closed primaries although he overperformed in Nevada, obviously. But they have not been good at polling him where independents can vote or change registration. In both NH and Iowa I'm pretty sure he overperformed above their margin of error.

Just saying.

 

[MrGoose]

Enough of this second talk...

We're going for first people!

 

[RDM]

PFH is doing MN turnout. Let's hope that we have ID'd about 30,000 voters.

Doesn't matter if we ID 80,000 voters, if no one is pushing them to the polls or picking them up and making sure they get there, what's the point?

 

[happyphilter]

Enough of this second talk...

We're going for first people!

I wish I were in MN to help. People on the forums seem so gung-ho, but lets be honest, most of us can't do anything. Whomever is in MN better be on game.

 

[James Madison]

Minnesotans, don't forget to post your caucus day stories and successes in this thread.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?358862-Minnesota-Appreciation-Thread

 

[sailingaway]

This was PPP's final New Hampshire Pol, where independents could vote in the GOP primary:

Mitt Romney continues to be headed for a comfortable win in New Hampshire. PPP's final poll there finds him with 35% to 18% for Ron Paul, 16% for Jon Huntsman, 12% for Newt Gingrich, 11% for Rick Santorum, 3% for Buddy Roemer, and 1% for Rick Perry.

Romney's support has been remarkably consistent over the course of PPP's three Granite State tracking polls, never straying from 35-36%. He's the most popular of the candidates in the state, with a 60/34 favorability rating. And he also has the most committed supporters...85% of them say they're definitely going to vote for him and when you look at the race just among those whose minds are completely made up his lead over Paul expands to 40-19.

The excitement in New Hampshire on Tuesday night will probably be the battle for second place. There Huntsman has the momentum. His support is up from 12% to 16%, while Paul's has declined from 21% to 18% over the last week and a half. Huntsman's favorability (55/30) is far better than Paul's (43/51) and 13% of voters list Huntsman as their 2nd choice compared to only 5% for Paul.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/01/romney-holding-steady-in-nh.html

Actual result from New Hampshire:


CANDIDATE VOTES PCT. DEL.
Romney
97,532 39.3% 7
Paul
56,848 22.9% 3
Huntsman
41,945 16.9% 2
Gingrich
23,411 9.4%
Santorum
23,362 9.4%
Others
2,676 1.1%
Perry
1,766 0.7%

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/...hampshire-primary-results-2012_n_1195638.html

 

[RDM]

I wish I were in MN to help. People on the forums seem so gung-ho, but lets be honest, most of us can't do anything. Whomever is in MN better be on game.

I would wish anyone within 50 miles of MN from other states would go there and help carpool voters would be a plus.

 

[CTRattlesnake]

35% of voters could change their minds.....with a 13% gap between 1st and 4th this is still very much up in the air.


GOTV has to be HUGE
The caucus speakers have to be on the ball
Everyone has to chipin to win this thing, this is our best shot since Iowa!

 

[rp2012win]

20% is the highest we've been in a PPP poll since iowa.

 

[tbone717]

Doesn't matter if we ID 80,000 voters, if no one is pushing them to the polls or picking them up and making sure they get there, what's the point?

Note what I stated. PFH is doing turnout calls. It wasn't successful in NV, but it appears that the IA turnout project was moderately successful. My hope is that we can do a better job with turnout, because I don't think we will do well with the late deciders. We were last with the late deciders in NV, which accounted for 24% of the vote. There is not much that has occurred since then that would lead me to believe we can improve on that, though there is a chance the endorsements received today could sway some voters.

 

[ONUV]

santorum aka bush 3.0?!?!

fool me once...

 

[Student Of Paulism]

It's obvious why that idiot is in first there, since it's all Bachmann country, and all her supporters are going to him, since Bachmann was pretty much the same as him (loves war, anti-gay, anti-muslim, religious zealot on abortion).

Just still hard to believe that many are actually on board for him, because if he was polling in the dumps, we would only be 2% back and we would most likely take it easily. But with him that far ahead and now that the MSM has gotten a hold of it, they now have their leverage (here we go again )

 

[pauliticalfan]

20% is the highest we've been in a PPP poll since iowa.

This is true. And we actually have upward momentum (from 19 to 20) this time, unlike in Iowa and New Hampshire. The conditions are right for something major to happen, IF PEOPLE SHOW UP AND VOTE.

 

[tbone717]

I would wish anyone within 50 miles of MN from other states would go there and help carpool voters would be a plus.

It's a great idea, but who is coordinating it? You can't just drive around town looking for people to take to the polls. They would need lists.