PPP 2016 GOP Primary Poll - Sep 2013 / Rand Paul 2nd with 17%

[TomtheTinker]

Anybody who says at worst decent candidates holding 40% of the vote is bad news..kind of makes me wonder.

 

[Brett85]

Anybody who says at worst decent candidates holding 40% of the vote is bad news..kind of makes me wonder.

Well, I guess I would rather have Rand lose the GOP nomination to Cruz than lose it to Christie, Bush, or Rubio. I would prefer Rand over Cruz, but I would at least be able to vote for Cruz in a general election. The main thing I fear about Cruz as the GOP nominee is that he would have very little crossover appeal with independents and Democrats and would have a very tough time winning a general election.

 

[jj-]

It's great that Cruz and Rand have 37% of the electorate.

 

[evandeck]

Do you think Twitter allows President Obama to
go over the 140 character limit for a tweet, or
not?

Yes ................................................................. 13%
No .................................................................. 36%
Not sure .......................................................... 52%

PPP is clearing trying to mock Conservative voters. Remember this?

 

[Keith and stuff]

Well, I guess I would rather have Rand lose the GOP nomination to Cruz than lose it to Christie, Bush, or Rubio. I would prefer Rand over Cruz, but I would at least be able to vote for Cruz in a general election. The main thing I fear about Cruz as the GOP nominee is that he would have very little crossover appeal with independents and Democrats and would have a very tough time winning a general election.

I agree.
My preference based solely on voting records would be:
Paul
Cruz
Rubio
Walker
Bush or Ryan

Of course, there are many other important factors and I simply would not vote for several of those people in a general election unless Rand was the VP.

 

[mwkaufman]

It's great that Cruz and Rand have 37% of the electorate.

This.

Although, I would disagree with those saying Cruz didn't take from Rand. Rand has been a very high profile opponent of a very unpopular war in Syria the last few months, I'd guess something like 5% of the electorate went from Paul to Cruz since the last poll. Just Rand has done a good job bringing even more supporters, and Cruz has peeled a lot away from the rest of the options also.

If someone starts off as a Cruz supporter going into the 2016 election, it's a very short jump to support Rand, it's a huge leap to support Bush or Christie instead. Even when Rand was at 17% in March, the Rubio/Bush/Christie/Ryan/Santorum/Jindal neocons were at 69%. Now that same group is at 52%. The nomination looks a lot more winnable now.

 

[July]

Really, the GOP primary base looks so susceptible to media shilling.

Very... but we knew that already, looking back at 2012 and past elections. That's one criticism I have with the conservative base, they are always very focused on the "present moment" like that. That makes them great at standing up to the establishment, but they too often don't think ahead into the future...and the Dems play off of that. That's why there really needs to be some more youth and intellectual types in the coalition, IMO. The base is very pessimistic, every fight is the last.

 

[RP Supporter]

Pretty good numbers for Rand. The best news out of this poll is that I think a lot of Cruz voters would go to Rand and almost none of his or Rand's support would go to Christie. Even with two media defined "tea party" candidates, Christie can still only manage third place. It's becoming clear that the base does not want him. That being said, expect him to pull a Romney and pretend to move to the right after he's reelected. Hopefully folks are not so easily fooled.

 

[ObiRandKenobi]

this is good news for rand.

cruz will take all the slings and arrows from the media and peter king.

rand can keep building a solid campaign and reaching out to dumb liberals.

 

[WD-NY]

At the same time, Cruz didn't actually take any support away from Rand from July. Rand still went up 1% even though Cruz went up 8%. Ryan and Bush went down.

Yep. Great news if Rand & Cruz have some sort of agreement/pact. If they don't, bad news for us/Rand.

 

[WD-NY]

I'm not sure that's how it works and it's much more likely that Rand is building bridges with establishment figures than Cruz, which is a good thing.

Cruz and Rand are competing for similar market share. It is not a positive for Cruz to be in the race. Cruz has zero crossover appeal in a general election, but is going to have conservative media on his side. In Cruz v Rand, Rand would have his work cut out for him. It will be tough for Rand to overcome Limbaugh, Hannity, Beck,etc.

But it will never be just "Cruz vs Rand" unless the establishment rallies behind one of them. Assuming the establishment does not, it would be Cruz vs Rand vs Romney/Rhino.

And the only way the establishment wins in that case is if Rand & Cruz go to war against each other (which would/should never happen bc it would be a lose-lose for both of them).

 

[alucard13mm]

Cruz endoese rand in 2016. Rand endorse cruz in 2024.

 

[WD-NY]

http://hotair.com/archives/2013/09/27/surprise-ppp-poll-now-shows-ted-cruz-leading-gop-2016-field/

I know, I know, it’s a PPP poll, but that’s good enough for Friday afternoon. Cruz’s lead is small and no one else in the field has slipped significantly, so this is less about Cruz gobbling up the competition than it is about him showing up as a real player in 2016. There is one data point that’s interesting, though. Here’s what PPP’s GOP primary poll looked like in July:

And here’s what it looks like now:

Cruz has pulled away from Rand Paul among the “very conservative,” turning a two-point lead two months ago into a 17-point lead now. That’s probably chiefly a function of Cruz’s greater visibility lately, with his 21-hour filibuster against the bete noire of ObamaCare supplanting Paul’s earlier filibuster against drones in the grassroots imagination. If so, then Paul can claw back some of that support later by taking another high-profile stand against one of Obama’s policies. But maybe there’s more to it than that; if Cruz emerges as the de facto leader of the tea party in Congress, and today’s NR report of him huddling with House conservatives against Boehner suggests that he might, then his hold on the “very conservative” might be more durable. Speaking of which:

Our numbers also suggest that Cruz is now viewed more broadly as the leader of the Republican Party. When asked whether they trust Cruz or GOP leader Mitch McConnell more, Cruz wins out 49/13. When it comes to who’s more trusted between Cruz and Speaker John Boehner, Cruz has a 51/20 advantage. And when it comes to Cruz and 2008 GOP nominee and Senate colleague John McCain, Cruz wins out 52/31. He now has more credibility with the GOP base than the folks who have been leading the party for years.

They didn’t poll Paul versus McConnell and Boehner, but with Paul backing McConnell for reelection in Kentucky, he’s not as well positioned as Cruz to be a grassroots figurehead against the leadership. But wait — if Cruz is vacuuming up conservative voters, how is Paul right behind him among Republican voters overall? Look again above and you’ll see that he’s increased his share of two other GOP demographics, the “somewhat conservative” and the “somewhat liberal,” where he’s gained 14 points. Maybe that’s the product of a small subsample, but it wouldn’t surprise me if him speaking out against mandatory minimum sentences for drug offenders lately has made an impression on socially liberal GOPers. If you had to guess how libertarian-leaning Republicans would identify themselves, “somewhat conservative” and “somewhat liberal” would be your guesses. So just as Cruz’s brand is starting to sharpen up, so is Paul’s. And then you’ve got Chris Christie in the middle, increasing his take of “moderates” by 10 points since July. That would be a nifty primary in 2016 — the centrist, the “true conservative,” and the heterodox libertarian, head to head to head. Seems less unlikely by the day.


Update: Ben Domenech argues (re: "Why Rand Paul Won Ted Cruz Filibuster") that when you’ve got one candidate who’ll be dismissed as an establishment RINO sellout by the base and another who’ll be dismissed as a grandstanding fanatic by the donor class, the guy between them — i.e. Rand Paul — is in a good spot to capitalize.

On mobile so wasn't able to include the charts Allahpundit included of the crosstabs

 

[Galileo Galilei]

Ted Cruz's rise is Rand Paul's gain

by kosFollow

The crazier Ted Cruz (L) gets, the better 2016 looks for Rand Paul (R).

Amy Walters in the subscription-only Cook Political Report:

Interestingly, the more Cruz draws attention to himself, the more it helps raise Rand Paul's profile as well. Once considered just a fringe element, Paul's stock among those outside the Tea Party core has continued to grow. Paul's filibuster on drones may not have lasted as long as Cruz's, but he showed an ability to zero in on an issue that can appeal to a diverse group of voters. The issue of drones and foreign intervention will be just as robust in the Democratic primary in 2016 as it will be among the GOP.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/...aggregation&fb_aggregation_id=288381481237582

 

[ObiRandKenobi]

ted cruz is like an evil herman cain.

instead of 999, its 666

 

[KingNothing]

Rand holding steady gradual increase- the Cruz bump will flame out just like rubio's did

There's literally no reason to think that Cruz will flame out like Rubio. Rubio is an idiot and completely unserious. Cruz is ambitious, unapologetic, and extremely intelligent.

Cruz is here to stay. And that's a great thing for the Republican party and fiscal conservatism. Sure, he poses a challenge to Rand, but he's nothing we can't overcome on the way to the White House.

 

[KingNothing]

This.

Although, I would disagree with those saying Cruz didn't take from Rand. Rand has been a very high profile opponent of a very unpopular war in Syria the last few months, I'd guess something like 5% of the electorate went from Paul to Cruz since the last poll. Just Rand has done a good job bringing even more supporters, and Cruz has peeled a lot away from the rest of the options also.

If someone starts off as a Cruz supporter going into the 2016 election, it's a very short jump to support Rand, it's a huge leap to support Bush or Christie instead. Even when Rand was at 17% in March, the Rubio/Bush/Christie/Ryan/Santorum/Jindal neocons were at 69%. Now that same group is at 52%. The nomination looks a lot more winnable now.

Agreed. It's pretty obvious to me that the Whacko Birds really are a clique, and that though they might each have their own ambitious, they see that the success of one benefits the rest. Intellectually, Rand is clearly the leader of the pack, but Cruz is doing a VERY important service to us all by pulling in a ton of people who would otherwise be put off by the Paul brand, and peeling potential support from other establishment and/or hawkish candidates.

 

[ObiRandKenobi]

There's literally no reason to think that Cruz will flame out like Rubio. Rubio is an idiot and completely unserious. Cruz is ambitious, unapologetic, and extremely intelligent.

Cruz is here to stay. And that's a great thing for the Republican party and fiscal conservatism. Sure, he poses a challenge to Rand, but he's nothing we can't overcome on the way to the White House.

cruz will take all the slings and arrows for the next 2 years. he has a bunch of quotes that sound really extreme to everyone outside the right wing blogosphere.

rand paul has a national campaign apparatus. i like his chances.

 

[Cleaner44]

No one but Paul!

 

[jj-]

Cruz or Pail, if either wins, would probably have to pick the other as VP to not get sabotaged.