PPP 2016 GOP Primary Poll - Sep 2013 / Rand Paul 2nd with 17%

T

tsai3904

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Joined
May 13, 2010
Messages
9,397
National 2016 GOP Presidential Primary
September 25-26, 2013
743 Republican primary voters
+/-3.6%

[TABLE="width: 100"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Sep[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Jul[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]May[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Mar[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Feb[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Jan[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Dec[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cruz[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]20%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]n/a[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]n/a[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]n/a[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Christie[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bush[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rubio[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]22%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jindal[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Santorum[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]n/a[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]n/a[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Walker[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]n/a[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]n/a[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]n/a[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]n/a[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]n/a[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
Last edited:
Rand holding steady gradual increase- the Cruz bump will flame out just like rubio's did
 
Cruz may pull it off. Don't think he is electable in the general as Rand but he may win the nomination.
 
That's fantastic news: looks like Cruz is stealing voters from other Republican candidates, but not from Rand. His anti-Obamacare gambit was good enough to win the affections of the dumber part of the Republican base, which never supported Rand to begin with.
 
At the same time, Cruz didn't actually take any support away from Rand from July. Rand still went up 1% even though Cruz went up 8%. Ryan and Bush went down.
 
Traditional Conservative said:
At the same time, Cruz didn't actually take any support away from Rand from July. Rand still went up 1% even though Cruz went up 8%. Ryan and Bush went down.
Click to expand...

Indeed, things are looking pretty dire for GOP moderates. The base WILL get over Cruz. The question is: are they going to return to Ryan and Bush, or will they support Rand instead?
 
Remember, Cruz started his 21 hour speech on the 24th and this poll was conducted on the 25th and 26th.
 
tsai3904 said:
Remember, Cruz started his 21 hour speech on the 24th and this poll was conducted on the 25th and 26th.
Click to expand...
Yeaw there is definitely a bump from his filibuster but what he gained was top name recognition with the primary voters.
 
JCDenton0451 said:
Indeed, things are looking pretty dire for GOP moderates. The base WILL get over Cruz. The question is: are they going to return to Ryan and Bush, or will they support Rand instead?
Click to expand...

The thing about it is that it's going to be almost impossible for Rand to criticize Cruz over anything, because Cruz is basically a 100% conservative purist. We disagree with him on some foreign policy issues, but the GOP base doesn't.
 
Settle down, Francis. Cruz's popularity is good for us. You watch.

Heck, if they could get Mike Lee to do a filibuster of something, we'd own the party! Every time something major happens, the base moves further and further away from the old-GOP. Rand is properly poised to capitalize on that - the others will hang on for the ride.
 
JCDenton0451 said:
Is it fair to call him 'contolled opposition'? Do you think Cruz made a pact with the Establishment?
Click to expand...

I'm not sure that's how it works and it's much more likely that Rand is building bridges with establishment figures than Cruz, which is a good thing.

Cruz and Rand are competing for similar market share. It is not a positive for Cruz to be in the race. Cruz has zero crossover appeal in a general election, but is going to have conservative media on his side. In Cruz v Rand, Rand would have his work cut out for him. It will be tough for Rand to overcome Limbaugh, Hannity, Beck,etc.
 
The poll was taken right in the midst of a huge onslaught of media coverage. Wait one month, poll again and he'll have flamed out. Seriously, this poll wasn't taken right after the media coverage, but during it, and all Cruz got was a temporary eight-point bump?

Really, the GOP primary base looks so susceptible to media shilling. How else can you explain how the media always made any candidate "surge" to the front in 2011? There were polls with losers like Trump and Bachmann and Cain at the top. It's all phony.
 
Last edited:
During the past 2 election cycles (at the very least), the GOP has nominated someone portrayed as a moderate as the nominee and that nominee has selected someone portrayed as a conservative as their running mate. If you watch Rand's career in the Senate, even though he is often cast as a hardcore conservative; he has done much to portray himself as a moderate, offering reasonable solutions and picking to lead the charge on the 90% agreement issues. This is also part of his extensive outreach to groups often neglected by the GOP. So he's been working to remake his image into a moderate; but at the same time a completely different type of moderate than McCain and Romney. If he pulls it off; this poll reflects the distinct possibility of a Paul/Cruz ticket. That's just how I see it. With that said, I'm not concerned about Cruz.
 
Did anyone not expect this? Cruz was all over the TV on the polling days.
 
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