PPP 2016 GOP Poll - Iowa (May '14)

T

tsai3904

Member
Joined
May 13, 2010
Messages
9,397
Iowa
May 15-19, 2014
303 Republican primary voters
+/-5.2%

[TABLE="width: 350"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]May '14[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]Feb '14[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]Jul '13[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]Feb '13[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Huckabee[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]20%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]n/a[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cruz[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bush[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Paul[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Christie[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Walker[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]n/a[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rubio[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]22%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Santorum[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]n/a[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SE/NS*[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jindal[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]n/a[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
*SE/NS = Someone else/Not Sure
 
I know that people get annoyed with me with some of the things I say and have said, but maybe people should listen to me when I say that you have to be strongly socially conservative, specifically strongly pro life, to win the Iowa caucus. It's not a coincidence that Rand's support in Iowa has gone down after his recent comments.
 
Last edited:
Traditional Conservative said:
I know that people get annoyed with me with some of the things I say and have said, but maybe people should listen to me when I say that you have to be strongly socially conservative, specifically strongly pro life, to win the Iowa caucus. It's not a coincidence that Rand's support in Iowa has gone down after his recent comments.
Click to expand...

To win the Republican primary sure, but the win the state and country as a whole...yeah not so much. For all the bluster of the bible thumping theocons in Iowa, what has it gotten them? They have gay marriage within the state and the democrats win the state in Presidential years. It's becoming bluer as we speak. A substantial portion of republicans in that state are out of touch.
 
Bastiat's The Law said:
To win the Republican primary sure, but the win the state and country as a whole...yeah not so much. For all the bluster of the bible thumping theocons in Iowa, what has it gotten them? They have gay marriage within the state and the democrats win the state in Presidential years. It's becoming bluer as we speak. A substantial portion of republicans in that state are out of touch.
Click to expand...

Maybe so, but I'm talking about the Iowa Republican caucus, and it makes it really hard to win the GOP nomination without winning the Iowa caucus. The winner of the Iowa caucus gets a lot of media coverage and momentum.
 
Traditional Conservative said:
I know that people get annoyed with me with some of the things I say and have said, but maybe people should listen to me when I say that you have to be strongly socially conservative, specifically strongly pro life, to win the Iowa caucus. It's not a coincidence that Rand's support in Iowa has gone down after his recent comments.
Click to expand...

You are right, Rand needs to win Iowa and New Hampshire. He had better be sound like the true Conservative in the debates. Cruz and Huck are the main people I would worry about winning Iowa. I hope Cruz does not run, but it looks like he might.
 
This is the first poll of the 2016 cycle that has really made me concerned. We need to change something up strategy wise.
 
The poll has Rand getting 2% of the 18-45 crowd. That seems outlandish to me.
 
If Rand positions himself to win iowa it might cost him NH. He can afford to lose Iowa but he can't afford to lose NH. The man that won the largest electoral win in the last 40 years LOST the republican Iowa caucus but won huge in NH. It would be great to win both but if Rand has to paint himself as a socon to win Iowa he very well could lose NH because that state is NOT socon. Iowa has been very poor at predicting the R nominee.
 
Dang...Looks like all of Rand's losses went straight to Cruz.

Does PPP ask respondents to name their 2nd and/or 3rd favorite candidate(s)?

I imagine many of Huck's 20% have Rand as their #2 - or at least did until recently. Worst case scenario at this point = Huck supporters now have Cruz in the 2 spot and Rand in the 3.
 
It's within the margin of error that it could be that he's been 14% all along.
 
Rocco said:
This is the first poll of the 2016 cycle that has really made me concerned. We need to change something up strategy wise.
Click to expand...

Yeah, like not making comments that offend conservatives and get played all over the internet. :) Rand's largest group of support ideologically in the poll is moderates at 12%. There just aren't that many moderate Republicans.
 
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