PPP: 16% in IA

[1836]

Palin likely not running and Ryan definitely not now.

PPP poll (PDF)

Perry 22%

Romney 19%

Bachmann 18%

Paul 16%

Cain 7%

Gingrich 5%

Santorum 5%

Others lower

 

[RonPaulFever]

I'm not sure exactly how the caucus works but given the fact that our people almost always show up to vote, that 16% is worth a helluva lot more than Romney's 22%.

 

[Dlynne]

Why does Santorum get so much credibility with the press in spite his low poll numbers?

 

[kah13176]

Palin likely not running

Why do you say that?

 

[Shinerxx]

This poll is useless when comparing the top four. It has a +/-5.5% margin of error.

 

[Karsten]

Only 6% away from first place? (And our supporters are the least likely to go to another candidate). This is great news, folks!

 

[KingRobbStark]

This is great news. These numbers mixed with the match up between Obama and Paul will put us on good grounds.

 

[AggieforPaul]

Only 6% away from first place? (And our supporters are the least likely to go to another candidate). This is great news, folks!

Actually, when they add Palin in, we get more defections than Perry or Romney. Part of Ron's increasing support is that he's getting more "casual" observers who just see his commercials on t.v., and arent diehard fans like RPF members.

 

[kah13176]

Actually, when they add Palin in, we get more defections than Perry or Romney. Part of Ron's increasing support is that he's getting more "casual" observers who just see his commercials on t.v., and arent diehard fans like RPF members.

Palin takes away 4% from us.

 

[HarryBrowneLives]

I'm not sure exactly how the caucus works but given the fact that our people almost always show up to vote, that 16% is worth a helluva lot more than Romney's 22%.

^^^^ This. with our turnout we're tied for first right now. Just add 4-5% to the RP poll numbers!

 

[Eric21ND]

We can win Iowa guys!

 

[Karsten]

I think we should focus 80% on Iowa, 15% on New Hampshire, and 5% everywhere else. It does not matter that we are low nationally. Nobody predicted Obama would win before he won Iowa. A win in the first one or two (caucus/primaries) often (but not always) creates a domino effect.

 

[Paul4Prez]

Ron Paul will win Iowa.

 

[Canderson]

Nothings certain yet, a lot depends on how he does in the debates, and the campaign fixing its media relations

 

[BUSHLIED]

With the party split down ideological lines, I don't think a win in IA produces a domino effect. Within this primary we can very well see Paul taking IA, Romney taking NH, Perry, maybe Bachmann winning SC, and Romney taking NV....leaving Florida a critical state. But considering proportional allocation, one can see an even distribution of delegates going into Super Tuesday. That being said, it seems that Ron has to win IA or NH...and second in NV...without getting blown out in SC and Florida, so he can pick up a few delegates there. The key states are going to be Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and CA...

 

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Bump for great numbers.

 

[PaulConventionWV]

^^^^ This. with our turnout we're tied for first right now. Just add 4-5% to the RP poll numbers!

I'm not so sure. According to the results from last election, it's more like 1%. I think we still have to keep fighting for it, though, because until people see Ron Paul in FIRST PLACE, they probably won't see him as viable. Frustrating, but the good part is we have plenty of time and potential to easily make up that gap and then some.

 

[PaulConventionWV]

With the party split down ideological lines, I don't think a win in IA produces a domino effect. Within this primary we can very well see Paul taking IA, Romney taking NH, Perry, maybe Bachmann winning SC, and Romney taking NV....leaving Florida a critical state. But considering proportional allocation, one can see an even distribution of delegates going into Super Tuesday. That being said, it seems that Ron has to win IA or NH...and second in NV...without getting blown out in SC and Florida, so he can pick up a few delegates there. The key states are going to be Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and CA...

I think if we win Iowa, and the have either a win or a strong 2nd in NH and NV, it will translate into a domino effect. I mean, how many people don't think Paul is electable? That would fly in the face of that theory. What kind of "unelectable" candidate wins the first state and comes in strong in the next few as well? That's not an un-electable guy.