Paul’s New Hampshire Bump

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Feb 17, 2009
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Ron Paul came in a strong second on January 10th in the New Hampshire Republican Primary with 23% of the vote. Second out of thirty candidates is pretty impressive considering that some of the candidates lived in New Hampshire and most of them were only competing in New Hampshire. While it is true that Paul only came in second in New Hampshire, Paul was the only candidate to get a bump in the South Carolina polls from the New Hampshire election results.

In polls by three different polling companies, Ron Paul had a significant bump in South Carolina. According to the South Carolina PPP poll before the New Hampshire Primary, Ron Paul polled at 9%. In the PPP poll right after the New Hampshire Primary, Ron Paul polled at 15%. The pre-New Hampshire Primary Rasmussen Reports poll had Ron Paul at 11%. The post-New Hampshire Primary Rasmussen Reports poll had Ron Paul at 16%. The American Research Group polls before and after the New Hampshire Primary showed a jump from 9% to 20% for Ron Paul in South Carolina.

While New Hampshire gave a bump to Ron Paul, no other candidate received a bump from the New Hampshire Primary. Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich did not change more than a point or two in either direction according to South Carolina polls by American Research Group, Rasmussen Reports and PPP.

Rick Santorum received a negative bump from the New Hampshire Primary. Rick Santorum was tied with Gingrich for second in South Carolina before the New Hampshire Primary. After the New Hampshire Primary, Santorum dropped 17 points from 24% to 7% according to American Research Group. According to Rasmussen Reports, Santorum dropped 8 points in South Carolina.

New Hampshire ended the campaign for several candidates. Jon Huntsman moved to New Hampshire months before the Primary. Huntsman campaigned exclusively in New Hampshire. However, he only finished a distant third in New Hampshire and dropped out of the race. Rick Perry was at one time leading in nationwide polls. However, Perry received less than 1% of the vote in New Hampshire and dropped out of the race.

All of the information from the PPP and Rasmussen Reports polls mentioned above is located on the South Carolina Republican Primary Polls section of the Real Clear Politics website. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ina_republican_presidential_primary-1590.html
The American Research Group polls are found on the American Research Group website. http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/sc/
 
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