Paul tied for 6th in Virginia, nipping at Cruz's heels

[carlton]

University of Mary Washington Virginia Republican Primary

Among General Population:

Carson – 19%
Trump – 17%
Rubio – 10%
Christie – 7%
Bush – 6%
Cruz – 6%
Kasich – 5%
Paul – 5%
Fiorina – 4%
Huckabee – 3%
Gilmore – 1%
Other – 1%
Undecided – 4%
Among Republicans and Republican-Leaning Independents:

Carson – 29%
Trump – 24%
Rubio – 11%
Cruz – 10%
Bush – 5%
Fiorina – 5%
Christie – 4%
Huckabee – 4%
Paul – 4%
Kasich – 1%
Gilmore – 0%
Other – 0%
Undecided – 2%
General Election Matchups

Clinton – 42%
Trump – 36%
Webb – 16%
Carson – 44%
Clinton – 39%
Webb – 12%
Clinton – 42%
Bush – 24%
Trump – 27%
Survey of 656 likely voters/333 Republican likely voters was done Nov 4-9 and has a margin of error of ±4.3%.

 

[Todd]

Nobodies ever called me.

 

[jmdrake]

Christie ahead of Paul in the general population and tied among republicans? What the?

 

[Gage]

Hopefully Rand is only one of a couple on the ballot like in 2012.

 

[Feelgood]

Does this mean Fiorina and Kasich are also nipping at Cruz's heels? Didn't see that in the thread title.

 

[CPUd]

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...ED-IN-VIRGINIA-GETTING-BALLOT-ACCESS-FOR-RAND!

 

[carlton]

Does this mean Fiorina and Kasich are also nipping at Cruz's heels? Didn't see that in the thread title.

If this were the carlyfiorinaforums or kasichforums it would be in the title.

Also Kasich is trending down, fiorina wayyy down. Paul is coming up.

 

[laissez faire]

If this were the carlyfiorinaforums or kasichforums it would be in the title.

Also Kasich is trending down, fiorina wayyy down. Paul is coming up.

Interviews ended 11/9 which is pre-debate and pre-Paris.

 

[Crashland]

There are 6 candidates with a higher percentage than Rand, so wouldn't that be tied for 7th, not tied for 6th?

 

[hells_unicorn]

Interviews ended 11/9 which is pre-debate and pre-Paris.

This would explain why Christie is so high in the poll. It's all speculation at this point as it's still over 2 months until the first votes in Iowa are cast, but this is decent news.

 

[nikcers]

This would explain why Christie is so high in the poll. It's all speculation at this point as it's still over 2 months until the first votes in Iowa are cast, but this is decent news.

Two months? Rand needs to surge now! Quick someone go get a Rand Paul logo Tattoo and post a picture on social media...

 

[Feelgood]

If this were the carlyfiorinaforums or kasichforums it would be in the title.

Also Kasich is trending down, fiorina wayyy down. Paul is coming up.

LOL doesnt make the title any less misleading. I understand the seeming need to pump Rand, but seriously, spin and being disingenuous doesnt make you look anything less then you're spinning the narrative and being disingenuous. I guess whatever helps you sleep at night. For me, I check the news daily, several times a day, and I just don't see any real evidence of this upward trend for Rand. If you could source and reliable info backing this statement, I for one would greatly appreciate it.

UNLESS your angle is the fact no one has asked him about dropping out in his latest few interviews? Is that your criteria for upward trend?

 

[carlton]

LOL doesnt make the title any less misleading. I understand the seeming need to pump Rand, but seriously, spin and being disingenuous doesnt make you look anything less then you're spinning the narrative and being disingenuous. I guess whatever helps you sleep at night. For me, I check the news daily, several times a day, and I just don't see any real evidence of this upward trend for Rand. If you could source and reliable info backing this statement, I for one would greatly appreciate it.

UNLESS your angle is the fact no one has asked him about dropping out in his latest few interviews? Is that your criteria for upward trend?

Rand at 5% in Virginia is not so bad

 

[RandPaul4Prez]

I don't get the Ted Luz appeal. He just comes across as a sleazy car salesman that steals just about all of Rand Paul's stances.

 

[Jackie Moon]

General Election Matchups

Clinton – 42%
Trump – 36%
Webb – 16%

Carson – 44%
Clinton – 39%
Webb – 12%

Clinton – 42%
Bush – 24%
Trump – 27%

I think the hypothetical general election matchups that show 3rd party candidates polling that high show how unreliable polling is at this point. Like the one that had Deez Nuts at 9%.

I'm willing to accept that Webb may get some support in Virginia as a 3rd party candidate... but would he really get 16% of the actual vote on election day?

 

[Feelgood]

Rand at 5% in Virginia is not so bad

On that I agree. It is something to build on, however I still see no upward trends per se'. Nationally I still haven't seen him breaking past 3%, and I look frequently. As of this post, these are the first 2 stories to pop up when you Google news about Rand.

Paris Attacks Put Rand Paul In A Tough Bind
hxxp://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rand-paul-paris-attacks_564a0d1ce4b060377349fecd

Do Paris Attacks Mean the End of Rand Paul's Presidential Hopes?
hxxps://reason.com/blog/2015/11/16/paris-attacks-end-rand-paul-presidential

Enough to piss off the Pope.

I don't get the Ted Luz appeal. He just comes across as a sleazy car salesman that steals just about all of Rand Paul's stances.

Well yeah! He's is the establishments monkey wrench for Rand.

 

[cjm]

Link to Survey

University of Mary Washington Virginia Republican Primary

Among Republicans and Republican-Leaning Independents:

Carson – 29%
Trump – 24%
Rubio – 11%
Cruz – 10%
Bush – 5%
Fiorina – 5%
Christie – 4%
Huckabee – 4%
Paul – 4%
Kasich – 1%
Gilmore – 0%
Other – 0%
Undecided – 2%

One thing to note is that the "likely voter" designation in this survey refers to those likely to vote in the November general election and not the March primary. I would think that a Rand supporter is more likely to show up to a primary than a Fiorina supporter, but have no idea if that's really true or to what degree.

Hopefully Rand is only one of a couple on the ballot like in 2012.

In 2012, the requirement for ballot access was 10,000 signatures with at least 400 from each of the 11 congressional districts. The current requirement is 5,000/200.

• Cruz, Rubio, Carson, and Paul have volunteers out and will probably be on the ballot (we can still use help in some CDs though!).
• Graham will be on the ballot. He doesn't appear to have any volunteers, but he's had staff from SC drive up to collect signatures.
• Fiorina will be on the ballot. She doesn't have any volunteers or staff that I'm aware of, but she's hired mercenaries at $4/signature to get her on the ballot.
• Trump will be on the ballot. Not sure if he has volunteers or paid staff collecting, but he's got people out there.
• ETA: Bush is the same as Trump. People collecting, but I don't know if they're paid or volunteers.

 

[jkob]

this poll is pretty meaningless considering most these people will not be in the race by that time