Paul at 6% in Battleground poll

[Bradley in DC]

[nb I used to work at the Tarrance Group--they did NOT rotate all of the names but stuck Paul at the top of the second tier ahead of Huckabee.]

http://www.tarrance.com/BG-33-questionnaire.pdf

IF “REPUBLICAN” IN Q21, THEN ASK:

21-R. If the Republican primary election for President was held today and you had to make a choice from
this list of candidates, for whom would you vote... (ROTATE FIRST FOUR NAMES ONLY)

• Rudy Giuliani,
• John McCain,
• Mitt Romney,
• Fred Thompson,
** END ROTATION **

• Ron Paul,
• Mike Huckabee,
• Duncan Hunter, OR
• Tom Tancredo

Paul/definitely............................................................3%
Paul/probably.............................................................2%
Paul/lean....................................................................1%


22. Is there one candidate running for the Presidency who you would NOT vote for no matter what?
In other words, is there one candidate who you would never consider voting for? If so, which
one? (DO NOT READ LIST, JUST RECORD)

Giuliani.................................................................15%
McCain......................................................................2%
Romney......................................................................5%
Fred Thompson..........................................................3%
Ron Paul....................................................................1%
Mike Huckabee..........................................................2%
Duncan Hunter.............................................................*
Tom Tancredo............................................................*

Clinton.....................................................................37%
Obama........................................................................5%
Edwards.....................................................................2%
Joe Biden......................................................................*
Chris Dodd....................................................................*
Dennis Kucinich........................................................1%
Bill Richardson.............................................................*

UNSURE (DNR)....................................................15%
NONE (DNR)..........................................................12%

 

[kylejack]

Rotate first four names? Haha, that has to be the most insane methodology I've ever heard of. Talk about an echo chamber.

 

[ashlux]

(ROTATE FIRST FOUR NAMES ONLY)

• Rudy Giuliani,
• John McCain,
• Mitt Romney,
• Fred Thompson,
** END ROTATION **

• Ron Paul,
• Mike Huckabee,
• Duncan Hunter, OR
• Tom Tancredo

Being stuck in the middle is a very bad place to be.

 

[mathamagician]

Wow Huckabee did really well considering he didn't get rotated either.

 

[freedom-maniac]

The middle is better than the bottom.

 

[Bradley in DC]

Rotate first four names? Haha, that has to be the most insane methodology I've ever heard of. Talk about an echo chamber.

Yeah, I found that really bizarre too from what is usually the best poll. And what's up with Tancredo OR Hunter?!

 

[OptionsTrader]

Images of Frank Luntz are dancing in my head.

 

[all J's in IL for RP]

What is your age, please?
18-24..........................................................................3%
25-29..........................................................................3%
30-34..........................................................................5%
35-39..........................................................................7%
40-44..........................................................................7%
45-54........................................................................23%
55-64........................................................................21%
65-69........................................................................10%
70-74..........................................................................8%
75-79..........................................................................6%
80-84..........................................................................4%
85-89..........................................................................2%
90 or over......................................................................*
REFUSED .................................................................2%

This would seem to indicate our support is somewhat stronger than the results suggest. Not only is Paul's key demographic under represented here, the 35-44 range also falls within the "more likely to vote" range as well.

 

[MindStalker]

Another INTERESTING fact from this is Paul is the only candidate (except the 1% group) where the definitely is larger than the probably. This shows how shallow their support is. I would love to see a crosstab between this and and how likely they are to vote.

Giuliani/definitely......................................................9%
Giuliani /probably....................................................11%
Giuliani /lean .............................................................2%

McCain/definitely......................................................5%
McCain /probably......................................................9%
McCain /lean .............................................................1%

Romney/definitely.....................................................5%
Romney /probably .....................................................9%
Romney /lean.............................................................2%

F. Thompson/definitely .............................................3%
F. Thompson/probably ..............................................5%
F. Thompson/lean......................................................1%

Paul/definitely............................................................3%
Paul/probably.............................................................2%
Paul/lean ....................................................................1%

Huckabee/definitely.................................................10%
Huckabee /probably.................................................12%
Huckabee/lean ...........................................................2%

Hunter/definitely........................................................1%
Hunter/probably............................................................*
Hunter/lean ...................................................................*

Tancredo/definitely ...................................................1%
Tancredo/probably........................................................*
Tancredo/lean ..................................................................

 

[Bradley in DC]

Another INTERESTING fact from this is Paul is the only candidate (except the 1% group) where the definitely is larger than the probably. This shows how shallow their support is.

Really good observation. The undecideds are the least likely to turn out to vote.