Paul at 4% and 3% in TX and OH respectively... oops

[devil21]

doesn't matter, delegates is where it's at. Everyone who is not having an open heart surgery on Tuesday night of 03/04/08 should be at the precinct convention and nominating him/herself to be a delegate.

But don't call yourself a Paul supporter unless you must!!! Keep your candidate choice close to the vest. Other states have shown not to be open about it.

 

[blaumittwoch]

Even RCP predicts McCain with over 50% of the vote. There's absolutely no way anyone can go from 7% in a poll from a week before voting to winning a whole state. McCain has 1014 delegates (from RCP), and if he wins both states he's it. There's no way you can think Paul has a chance at the nomination anymore, and if you do you're already in stage 1 in the 5 grief processes, denial. Not even Huck & Chuck can give the race a roundhouse kick to a brokered convention.

And stop it with the voter fraud. Think for once.

 

[Fox McCloud]

the only important number is that mccain is polling above 50% in each one.

If he gets above 50%, he gets all the delegates.

not true--he just needs 1 vote more than the 2nd highest vote count to win ALL the delegates in either State.

Either way, statistically speaking, yes, it will be over tomorrow, as McCain will have over 50% of the delegates (and this is only counting Texas and Ohio....there's Vermont and Rhode Island as well...in which he's guarantee to get all the delegates in one, and at least half in the other). Even if you toss out all the "unpledged" delegates, he'd still have over 50% by the end of tomorrow.

Unless he loses most of his delegates before or during the RNC (or they're somehow convinced to go for another candidate), which is highly unlikely IMHO, then he'll have it "in the hole".

Oh well, at least it might prompt Huckabee to drop out, leaving it down to Ron Paul and McCain (which might allow us to grab a few more delegates than usual).

I just hope that Huckabee does drop out after tomorrow though.

 

[oldworldorder]

And stop it with the voter fraud. Think for once.

That's hilarious - I have no illusion of RP even getting 10%, people being stupid is enough at this stage, no election fraud required. But if you think there is not, has not been or won't continue to be election fraud you need to do a little thinking and research - it's verified fact many times over.

 

[ronpaulhawaii]

ISTM- One thing that matters a LOT, whether or not it goes brokered, is getting delegates onto the floor to influence the direction of the party...

 

[defe07]

not true--he just needs 1 vote more than the 2nd highest vote count to win ALL the delegates in either State.

Either way, statistically speaking, yes, it will be over tomorrow, as McCain will have over 50% of the delegates (and this is only counting Texas and Ohio....there's Vermont and Rhode Island as well...in which he's guarantee to get all the delegates in one, and at least half in the other). Even if you toss out all the "unpledged" delegates, he'd still have over 50% by the end of tomorrow.

Unless he loses most of his delegates before or during the RNC (or they're somehow convinced to go for another candidate), which is highly unlikely IMHO, then he'll have it "in the hole".

Oh well, at least it might prompt Huckabee to drop out, leaving it down to Ron Paul and McCain (which might allow us to grab a few more delegates than usual).

I just hope that Huckabee does drop out after tomorrow though.

Just want to correct you about TX. While OH does allocate its delegates to the statewide winner, the system in TX is two-tiered. From thegreenpapers.com:

137 of 140 of Texas's delegates to the Republican National Convention are allocated to presidential contenders in today's Texas Presidential Primary.

96 district delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the 32 congressional districts: each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates. These delegates are allocated to the presidential contenders as follows:
If a candidate receives a majority of the vote (more than 50%), that candidate is allocated all 3 of the district's delegates. [General Rules for All Conventions and Meetings Section 8.a.]
If no candidate receives a majority of the vote and at least 1 candidate receives 20% or more of the vote, the candidate with the most votes (plurality) receives 2 delegates and the candidate receiving the next highest number of votes receives 1 delegate. However, if the plurality winner receives more than 20% and the number of votes received by the next highest candidate is less than 20%, the plurality winner receives 3 delegates. [Section 8.b.]
If no candidate receives 20% of the vote then the top 3 vote getters each receive 1 delegate. [Section 8.c.]
41 at-large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 31 bonus delegates) are to be allocated to the presidential contenders based on the primary results statewide. These delegates are allocated to the presidential contenders as follows:
If a candidate receives a majority of the vote (more than 50%), that candidate is allocated all 41 at-large delegates. [Section 9.a.]
If no candidate receives a majority of the vote and at least 1 candidate receives 20% or more of the vote, the 41 at-large delegates are allocated proportionally among those candidates receiving 20% or more of the vote. Rounding rules: Beginning with the candidate receiving the largest number of votes, round any fraction to the next whole number of delegates. Continue this process with the next highest vote getter and repeat until all the delegates are allocated. [Section 9.b.]
If no candidate receives 20% of the vote, allocate the 41 at-large delegates proportionally. Rounding rules: Beginning with the candidate receiving the largest number of votes, round any fraction to the next whole number of delegates. Continue this process with the next highest vote getter and repeat until all the delegates are allocated. [Section 9.c.]

 

[wealeat]

not true--he just needs 1 vote more than the 2nd highest vote count to win ALL the delegates in either State.

Either way, statistically speaking, yes, it will be over tomorrow, as McCain will have over 50% of the delegates (and this is only counting Texas and Ohio....there's Vermont and Rhode Island as well...in which he's guarantee to get all the delegates in one, and at least half in the other). Even if you toss out all the "unpledged" delegates, he'd still have over 50% by the end of tomorrow.

Unless he loses most of his delegates before or during the RNC (or they're somehow convinced to go for another candidate), which is highly unlikely IMHO, then he'll have it "in the hole".

Oh well, at least it might prompt Huckabee to drop out, leaving it down to Ron Paul and McCain (which might allow us to grab a few more delegates than usual).

I just hope that Huckabee does drop out after tomorrow though.

not true, see above.

 

[Syragop45]

I hate that so many sheeple are willing to allow the media to pick their candidates.

The three frontrunners are all liberal special interest group loving machines with plans that will destroy the already weak economy. The only difference is their party line stance on Iraq and amount of socialist programs they plan to implement.