Paul @ 9% in NH - USA Today/Gallup

[Goldwater Conservative]

"Asked of Republicans and Republican leaners without a candidate preference"

Huh? Why Republican leaners without a preference? Even with what they did tell us about their methodology, I don't like their monkeying around.

 

[Myerz]

Is it getting hot in here or is it just me?

The temperature is rising!!!

 

[Thomas Paine]

We need Romney, Thompson, Giuliani, McCain, and Huckabee in this race for the first several primaries/caucuses to destroy each other in a war of attrition. Meanwhile, we keep the good Doctor in the race with our votes and our money bombs while the five establishment candidates are busy dividing the establishment/neocon votes. After Thompson and McCain drop out (they will be the first two of the establishment candidates to drop out), we can start to snag some of their supporters who will be too pissed off to join the other candidates' camps. Eventually Giuliani will throw in the towel and it will become a three-way race between Romney (who will remain in the race solely because of his money), Huckabee (thanks to the evangelicals), and Paul who will draw the support of Republicans who remain committed to the principles and ideals of Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan. Then, the race will become interesting and we may see a brokered GOP convention for the first time in decades. I hope everyone is ready for a road trip to St. Paul/Minneapolis.

 

[Lord Xar]

You know.. McCain was bobing in the water not too long ago, now he is second - and the Joe "kill the Arabs" Lieberman endorses him - its ALL over the news for 2 days and Mr. McCain is now a solid second..

hmmmmm

Are they setting this up for the ripped votes..?

Also, 477 is not a big enough sample.

 

[Highstreet]

How is that cool? We're still almost in last place! This is not cool at all.

We are in a Statistical Tie for 3rd place.

And that is only among hard core Bush supporters who voted in primaries in the past 4 years.

 

[hawks4ronpaul]

"Asked of Republicans and Republican leaners without a candidate preference"

Huh? Why Republican leaners without a preference? Even with what they did tell us about their methodology, I don't like their monkeying around.

"Leaners" is standard industry practice. For instance, for party preference, many people say they are "independent" but then vote party-line straight-ticket for one of the big two parties. "Leaners" is a way to not let these people skew the poll, especially for predicting election voting.


http://hawks4ronpaul.blogspot.com/

 

[hawks4ronpaul]

Wait a minute.

". (Asked of Republicans and Republican leaners without a candidate preference) As of today, which Republican candidate do you lean toward the most?"


These "lean" questions are usually the follow-up question to the main question.

For instance:

1. Ask 500 people, "Who will you vote for?"

Candidate X 50%
Candidate Y 30%
Don't know 20%

1a. Ask 100 people who said don't know, "Who do you lean toward?"


Then, polls often combine 1 + 1a for their reported results.


However, that link looks like it lists only the follow-up question.


http://hawks4ronpaul.blogspot.com/

 

[adpierce]

When will they finally admit Dr. Paul is supported by more than 10% of the voting population in NH?

 

[brumans]

They showed this poll on MSNBC earlier. They showed four people.. showed Huckabee at 9% and didn't include Paul, who is also at 9%.

 

[hankpyro]

I predict that Paul will win 1st place in NH with 23%. The rest will be:

Romney: 21%
McCain: 19%
Huckabee: 14%
Thompson: 11%
Guiliani: 8%
Hunter: 4%
Keyes: .0005%

Our man definitely has a chance at the blue ribbon. I think Hunter will get about 1%. I think Guliani will do a little better than you predict and both Thompson and Huckabee will get about half of what you predict.
Just an educated guess.

 

[matthylland]

A CBS News Poll concluding four days before Iowa Caucus 2004 of likely Dem primary voters nationwide.

Dean 24%
Clark 12%
Gephardt 11%
Kerry 7%
Edwards 5%
Lieberman 5%
Braun 4%
Sharpton 3%
Kucinich 1%
Other (vol.) 13%
Don't know 15%

More detailed analysis of 2004 polls http://www.publishersgoldmine.com/2007/12/19/if-i-get-a-chimpanzee-and-a-dartboard/

all you need to know...

 

[max]

i'm very disappointed in the people of NH...we've had media saturation up there and all we poll is 9%???..

even if we double that on election day, we're still 3rd place.

How can people be so fucking stupid in a state that chose pat Buchanan 12 years ago in a one on one against Dole?

The Union Leader used to be controlled by a conservative lady named Mackey Lobe - who endorsed Buchanan..


Now its an Establishment rag.....Cant people think for themselves? Why dont we just allow the editors and publishers to just pick the candidadtes directly then

 

[RP=RonPaul=RedPill]

Don't sweat it. Ron Paul's polling numbers are averaged down to 9% because he's been polling at 2% all year up until recently. We got this. 9% is amazing. Besides, F U Frank!

 

[Liberty]

They showed this poll on MSNBC earlier. They showed four people.. showed Huckabee at 9% and didn't include Paul, who is also at 9%.

MTP pulled the same BS showing Giuliani at 5% in Iowa, but excluded Paul also at 5%. Are they trying to give the impression Paul has no support?

 

[AceNZ]

So you know about poll multipliers, right? That where the raw poll results are multiplied by a factor to "adjust" the results so that they are supposedly comparable to earlier polls:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig8/pitkaniemi1.html

In a poll like this, that's sponsored by the MSM, it seems very likely that they're using a high negative multiplier. If it's -3.0 as the author of the article above suggests, that would make RP's actual results more like 27%. Such a high negative multiplier would be "justified" on the basis that "everyone knows RP can't win" or some such BS.

So a reported 9% in the polls could actually be very good news...

 

[Ron LOL]

More bad math (or at the very least, poor transparency) from USA Today. I simply refuse to believe the "will definitely support" numbers are the same between Ron Paul and other candidates.

 

[knappz]

I predict that Paul will win 1st place in NH with 23%. The rest will be:

Romney: 21%
McCain: 19%
Huckabee: 14%
Thompson: 11%
Guiliani: 8%
Hunter: 4%
Keyes: .0005%

Weird! I woke up this morning turned to my wife and said "I was just dreaming that Ron Paul won with 23% of the vote"

I had totally forgotten about it until just now seeing your post.

it's been know to happen...