OpinionSavvy Iowa poll 1/29-1/30 - Rand 8.6%

[Liberty74]

Massive age gap. In this poll, 92% of Rand's supporters are under age 45.

It's why Rand is in the back of the pack. As I've said many times and have gotten attacked by some on RPF, it's a fact that the majority of voters in Iowa are old. In 2012, 68% were 45 and up. Ron did okay with that demo but not strong enough to pull out the win. Rand is not doing okay.

To win Iowa you must win the old voters or be very competitive with that demo. It's the playing field whether some like it or not.

All we can hope for is that some of the old voters change their minds today to give Rand a boost. Then let the the student vote carry him over the top.

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

It's why Rand is in the back of the pack. As I've said many times and have gotten attacked by some on RPF, it's a fact that the majority of voters in Iowa are old. In 2012, 68% were 45 and up. Ron did okay with that demo but not strong enough to pull out the win. Rand is not doing okay.

To win Iowa you must win the old voters or be very competitive with that demo. It's the playing field whether some like it or not.

All we can hope for is that some of the old voters change their minds today to give Rand a boost. Then let the the student vote carry him over the top.

It's true that the 45+ vote is important. However, it's also being split many ways this year around. I think it's really hard to predict what's actually going to happen. There are a gazillion factors.

NOAA is a pretty decent outfit.

 

[robmpreston]

Took a quick look at the exit polls from 2012.

Ron Paul got 11% with 65+ and 16% with 45-64

I don't think we need quite that much this time, assuming we get a much bigger 18-44 turnout, but it does show that people that age are willing to vote for somebody like Rand. We just need the younger people to sway them at the caucus meetings.

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

Took a quick look at the exit polls from 2012.

Ron Paul got 11% with 65+ and 16% with 45-64

I don't think we need quite that much this time, assuming we get a much bigger 18-44 turnout, but it does show that people that age are willing to vote for somebody like Rand. We just need the younger people to sway them at the caucus meetings.

Precinct captains can be vote multipliers. If they can inspire some people who came to the caucus with an open mind, they will have an effect. This could clearly be seen in 2012. I was actually amazed at how many people go to caucuses to listen to what others have to say.

 

[01000110]

Rand on CNN New Day just now said he's got about 1100 precinct chairs.

 

[MarcusI]

Checking all the polls, it would be really big if Rand can be in double digits. Considering all the speculation why the polling is wrong, I would say 15% would be a huge surprise and keep Rand massively in the race. Oh boy, Im excited, but I dont want to be too desparate tonight if the average polling are true... but I will be.

 

[nasaal]

Checking all the polls, it would be really big if Rand can be in double digits. Considering all the speculation why the polling is wrong, I would say 15% would be a huge surprise and keep Rand massively in the race. Oh boy, Im excited, but I dont want to be too desparate tonight if the average polling are true... but I will be.

If he can make it to 10% and 4th place, then it will have been a triumph for him.

 

[ds21089]

He needs to get at least third place so he can make the debate. The less people in that debate, the more time Rand gets to prove that he is the only logical choice while the others likely shoot themselves in the foot.

 

[MarcusI]

If he can make it to 10% and 4th place, then it will have been a triumph for him.

Yes thats my opinion as well.

I will just be desparate if its 5% or lower, but I'm 100% optimistic that this wont happen!

 

[squirl22]

1st place for Paul in that poll amongst 18-29 year olds, almost 1st amongst 30-44 year old, ridiculously low above that age. Lets hope this year there will be a massive youth turnout.

If it snows, the old folks will stay home. So, if Rand has the ground game he claims he has, he can corral the youngsters and cart them to the caucuses.

It's true about the older folks getting their news from tv...Fox, and talk radio. They don't think for themselves at all. I wish Rand would have made some attempt to garner their vote...talking about cutting social security is a sure way not to get their vote. But, talking about how congress has been raiding the trust fund is a good way to talk about it. Wish he would have done it that way when in front of an older audience....and yes, Iowa is white old and rural; it is not representative of the country at all. I think a state like Ohio or PA would make a better first in the nation vote.

 

[Patrick Henry]

Would love to know how this compares to the other candidates.

Rand on CNN New Day just now said he's got about 1100 precinct chairs.

 

[squirl22]

Would love to know how this compares to the other candidates.

Originally Posted by 01000110
Rand on CNN New Day just now said he's got about 1100 precinct chairs.

If Cruz hears this you can be sure he will claim at least 1600....are there that many precincts?

 

[kbs021]

If Rubio, Trump, Carson, etc. aren't touting it then you know they don't have the goods...

 

[SilentBull]

If he can make it to 10% and 4th place, then it will have been a triumph for him.

I think 4th should be easy for him to achieve. No way does Carson beat him tonight.

 

[SilentBull]

He needs to get at least third place so he can make the debate. The less people in that debate, the more time Rand gets to prove that he is the only logical choice while the others likely shoot themselves in the foot.

My concern is New Hampshire. Unless he wins Iowa, I don't see him doing well in New Hampshire. There are ZERO TV ads in New Hampshire for Rand, and I don't see how one does well without one. There are also no Rand signs anywhere. Kasich, Christie and Jeb is all we see. Ron was blacked out in 2012 but he at least had the money to air TV ads.

 

[limequat]

My concern is New Hampshire. Unless he wins Iowa, I don't see him doing well in New Hampshire. There are ZERO TV ads in New Hampshire for Rand, and I don't see how one does well without one. There are also no Rand signs anywhere. Kasich, Christie and Jeb is all we see. Ron was blacked out in 2012 but he at least had the money to air TV ads.

I think NH has been effectively ceded to the establishment. Let them blow their wads and try to get some momentum coming out of NV.

 

[jbauer]

1st place for Paul in that poll amongst 18-29 year olds, almost 1st amongst 30-44 year old, ridiculously low above that age. Lets hope this year there will be a massive youth turnout....

The good news is that as all the old people die off we might finally see a change in Government. Hopefully it wont be to late......or the rise of "The Burn" doesn't become the calling card of socialism.

 

[July]

My concern is New Hampshire. Unless he wins Iowa, I don't see him doing well in New Hampshire. There are ZERO TV ads in New Hampshire for Rand, and I don't see how one does well without one. There are also no Rand signs anywhere. Kasich, Christie and Jeb is all we see. Ron was blacked out in 2012 but he at least had the money to air TV ads.

There are some, I've seen around town. They must have focused just in specific areas. The most I've seen is Kasich, and I've received a LOT of mailers from Jeb, and have had visits from both Ted and Jeb canvassers.

 

[limequat]

There are some, I've seen around town. They must have focused just in specific areas. The most I've seen is Kasich, and I've received a LOT of mailers from Jeb, and have had visits from both Ted and Jeb canvassers.

To those that get canvassers from other candidates: The best thing to do is invite them in for cookies. Pretend to be interested but on the fence. Tie them up for AS LONG AS POSSIBLE. The more time they waste on you, the less time they have for other people.

 

[TheNewYorker]

1st place for Paul in that poll amongst 18-29 year olds, almost 1st amongst 30-44 year old, ridiculously low above that age. Lets hope this year there will be a massive youth turnout....

Liberty is looking pretty great for the next few elections. By then, the baby boomers and silent generation should mostly be dead.

Then, maybe a candidate like Ron or Rand may actually have a chance.