IOWA STATE/WHO-HD Poll 1-25

[Galileo Galilei]

Rand has not hit 7% in a long time.

 

[kbs021]

If this poll counts (and I don't see why it wouldn't unless something is weird) we are in. If they count the CBS poll we are in. If not, another poll would have to be released that cuts us down not to get it... We CAN use this poll as a reference as well as the CBS poll to back our argument.. Love this poll result. Holy crap at the fact we get 7 percent in a poll that 100 percent undercuts young voters... Seriously how did we get 7 in this poll lol????

 

[rp08orbust]

..

 

[rp08orbust]

Seriously how did we get 7 in this poll lol????

I don't see first names in the OP... maybe those elderly voters think Ron is running? Or maybe Ron's campaigning is helping with the older folks who supported him in 2008 and 2012?

 

[Jackie Moon]

I don't see first names in the OP... maybe those elderly voters think Ron is running? Or maybe Ron's campaigning is helping with the older folks who supported him in 2008 and 2012?

This poll only asked people that "definitely" and "probably" will caucus.

“Trump has done an excellent job of motivating non-traditional Republicans and people who don’t typically vote to support him and attend his rallies. However, our poll has shown – twice now – that he is not the leading candidate among people who are the most likely to go out on caucus night,” Andersen said. “Trump probably has more supporters than other Republican candidates overall in Iowa, but if those supporters don’t show up to caucus it just won’t matter. It is not just popularity that wins the caucus; it is turning out your supporters.”

 

[kbs021]

Can anyone find a reason why this poll wouldn't count lol? The demographics are horrible (but so are Monmouth, etc.). It IS live phone interview and here is other explanation = Faculty in the Department of Political Science, the Department of Statistics, and the Greenlee School of Journalism and Communication are collaborating on the Iowa Caucus Poll. Those departments, plus ISU’s Office of the Vice President for Research, the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences and the Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics, as well as WHO-HD, are funding the research.

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

Can anyone find a reason why this poll wouldn't count lol? The demographics are horrible (but so are Monmouth, etc.). It IS live phone interview and here is other explanation = Faculty in the Department of Political Science, the Department of Statistics, and the Greenlee School of Journalism and Communication are collaborating on the Iowa Caucus Poll. Those departments, plus ISU’s Office of the Vice President for Research, the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences and the Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics, as well as WHO-HD, are funding the research.

I don't see what's so goddamn awful about the demographics. I mean, ok, it's not realistic for a caucus turnout but even though the demographics by age suck, they still seem to be from a better pool. (actually seems realistic for polling older people)

If you were to say Rand would get 7% of the 'old' vote. Add to that a 1000 precinct chairs with the people who they bring to caucus. add 10k students to that.

And you've got a pretty massive number right there.

 

[Liberty74]

Exit/entrance polls from 2012 IA caucus (source):

Age:
>50 = 60%
30-50 = 24%
<30 = 15%

Men 57%
Women 43%

So, relative actual voter demographics from 2012, this poll under-represents men and young people.

...the very groups Rand polls best with.

And yet he still got 7%, 5th place.

Maybe the older voters are finally taking note of Rand? He will need 20% of the 45 and up group to be competitive. Ron only got 15% in 2012. If Rand gets 20%, then the student vote will push him over the top to WIN.

 

[CPUd]

Can anyone find a reason why this poll wouldn't count lol? The demographics are horrible (but so are Monmouth, etc.). It IS live phone interview and here is other explanation = Faculty in the Department of Political Science, the Department of Statistics, and the Greenlee School of Journalism and Communication are collaborating on the Iowa Caucus Poll. Those departments, plus ISU’s Office of the Vice President for Research, the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences and the Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics, as well as WHO-HD, are funding the research.

What are the results for Republican only? I noticed in the FBN release they prioritized by:

Registered GOP likely caucusgoers
Registered GOP
Registered voters

 

[limequat]

WTF it took them 2 months to release? Fox definitely will not include this one.

WHO-HD, the NBC affiliate in Des Moines, conducted the first wave of polling from Nov. 2-15. All 722 respondents in this second wave were surveyed in November.

 

[kbs021]

WTF it took them 2 months to release? Fox definitely will not include this one.

WHO-HD, the NBC affiliate in Des Moines, conducted the first wave of polling from Nov. 2-15. All 722 respondents in this second wave were surveyed in November.

That was a separate result. They try to use most of the same people though I think. This poll was done in January only.

 

[rich34]

Exit/entrance polls from 2012 IA caucus (source):

Age:
>50 = 60%
30-50 = 24%
<30 = 15%

Men 57%
Women 43%

So, relative actual voter demographics from 2012, this poll under-represents men and young people.

...the very groups Rand polls best with.

And yet he still got 7%, 5th place.

Absolutely I was thinking the same thing! Hell for all we know the Rand surge could be happening, but we'd never know do to their blatant, willful, and intentional misrepresentation of the proper demographics. I will however take this as a sign that Rand is starting to surge. If Rand can gain ground with this set of demographics then there's no telling how many 18 to 39 year olds are also starting to move his way!

 

[rich34]

That was a separate result. They try to use most of the same people though I think. This poll was done in January only.

Either way let's all spread the word the Paul surge is on!

 

[SilentBull]

Exit/entrance polls from 2012 IA caucus (source):

Age:
>50 = 60%
30-50 = 24%
<30 = 15%

Men 57%
Women 43%

So, relative actual voter demographics from 2012, this poll under-represents men and young people.

...the very groups Rand polls best with.

And yet he still got 7%, 5th place.

Holy crap dude! The shock is coming!

 

[derek4ever]

Holy crap dude! The shock is coming!

More like a jolt! A jolt to the establishment is coming! I feel it!!

 

[Lord Xar]

I'm waiting for Fox to include Kasich and Christie in the next debate...... just because.