OpinionSavvy Iowa poll 1/29-1/30 - Rand 8.6%

[CPUd]

 

[eleganz]

Now we see why Rand is so damn confident and that his campaign is setting the expectation for possibly winning the caucus, that is a very large expectation to set.

Keep making calls! Calls is what identified all those potential supporters and calls is what will turn them out to vote.

Stop hoping, start calling!

 

[puppetmaster]

trump paul 1 and 2.....rubio 3? my prediction....but i hope for a number 1 for paul!!

 

[Dianne]

Man, if we could just take out Rubio tomorrow night. Rand come in at #3, whooooooooooooohooooooooooooo..... Trump/Cruz/Paul ... That's what I realistically hope for tomorrow night. Rand can take Cruz out, easily after that.

 

[rich34]

Well if this is correct then what a couple people were saying earlier about Rand being at 9% on the last day of the dmr poll could be accurate. Add in the fact that there was no info/crosstabs released from the dmr poll and it could be highly likely Rand is trending upward going into the caucus. I'd also guess that the pollsters are erring on the side of caution when it comes to young people and cell phone users. This also goes into rand's favor as his current numbers could be at 10%. With a moe of 3% this should put his numbers at anywhere from 7 to 13 percent. Most likely on the top side of that margin of error.

 

[Crashland]

Hoping for a Cruz collapse more than anything. Rand stands to gain from it if it happens

 

[Rudeman]

Man, if we could just take out Rubio tomorrow night. Rand come in at #3, whooooooooooooohooooooooooooo..... Trump/Cruz/Paul ... That's what I realistically hope for tomorrow night. Rand can take Cruz out, easily after that.

I'd rather Rand out perform Cruz. If the top 3 was Rand/Trump/Rubio that would be fine because then Rubio is likely the go to establishment/moderate for NH.

If it's Rand/Trump/Cruz, then you're still going to get an establishment/moderate out of NH, which could be Rubio, Bush, Kasich or Christie.

 

[eleganz]

Rand finishing strong in Iowa would be a major surprise upset.

How can Cruz be so dumb to drop the ball at the very last second.

 

[Dianne]

I'd rather Rand out perform Cruz. If the top 3 was Rand/Trump/Rubio that would be fine because then Rubio is likely the go to establishment/moderate for NH.

If it's Rand/Trump/Cruz, then you're still going to get an establishment/moderate out of NH, which could be Rubio, Bush, Kasich or Christie.

I would prefer that too, but I'm trying to be realistic. If we can get Rand into third slot, I will climb Mount Everest next week. Think of it as a horse race. Always keep your horse in reach, but never bring him to the front too quickly. Have him well positioned in the back stretch.

 

[Dianne]

Rand finishing strong in Iowa would be a major surprise upset.

How can Cruz be so dumb to drop the ball at the very last second.

Last day of the month. He is waiting for his next Goldman Sachs check.

 

[CPUd]

Rand finishing strong in Iowa would be a major surprise upset.

How can Cruz be so dumb to drop the ball at the very last second.

Yes, and someone is full of shit, too. The Cruz camp was saying yesterday they would do whatever it takes to increase the turnout, and tonight Cruz surrogate Steve King says:

 

[Crashland]

Rand finishing strong in Iowa would be a major surprise upset.

How can Cruz be so dumb to drop the ball at the very last second.

A Cruz collapse in Iowa would be the best thing that could possibly happen for Rand. Perfect priming for a Rand surge

 

[maxoutco]

Last day of the month. He is waiting for his next Goldman Sachs check.

Fix is in, establishment wants Rubio. They're paying everyone else to get out of the way.

 

[Uriah]

If Rand actually gets 10,000 college students he'll get 8.3% of the vote with students alone based on 120k turnout.

 

[cornell]

Wow I don't know if I've ever seen such a huge age drop off:

18-29: 22.7%
30-44: 17.9%
45-64: 0.7%
65+: 1.7%

I hate to see 45 and up so low, but if it's any consolation, we are the future at least.

 

[cornell]

Another interesting tidbit, 86% of Paul supporters in the sample watched the recent debate. Higher than any other candidate, we are clearly the most engaged and aware of the issues of any supporter, although I think anyone reading this forum already knew that.

 

[Foreigner]

@ 11,6% among people who saw the last debate. Late surge!

 

[Mike4Freedom]

Wow I don't know if I've ever seen such a huge age drop off:

18-29: 22.7%
30-44: 17.9%
45-64: 0.7%
65+: 1.7%

I hate to see 45 and up so low, but if it's any consolation, we are the future at least.

45 - 64 and 65+ get their news from the TV and talk radio. The younger people more from the internet or close to even. We are the future. I would love if the people that worked at RevolutionPac 2012 would have a nightly news segment on Netflix, look at the popularity of Making a Murderer.

rubio has a crappy ground game. Santorum was able to take advantage of his manufactered surge by having a lot of precinct captains. Rubio and trump will underperform. Ted will be within MOE. The students are the wild card here.

Rand right now is around 9% to 11% most likely. If those 10K students show up he could get almost 20% if turnout is a bit lower due to the large snowstorm. The storm is on the west coast which Ron Paul did not do as good in the West.

Top 3 he can do. If he gets 1st or 2nd, it will be the gamechanger we need!

 

[LatinsforPaul]

Poll has been added to RCP...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

Rand finishing strong in Iowa would be a major surprise upset.

How can Cruz be so dumb to drop the ball at the very last second.

Simple. He's greedy.