Only 17.51% of RP supporters voted in Iowa. No wonder we were 5th. Learn from stats:

[stylesbjj]

Sticky this.

We must focus on turnout. Anyone who possibly wanted to vote for Ron Paul already has. Now we just need to get them to the polls.

 

[justinc.1089]

Hate to say it, but you young f*cks, are slack bastards.

Yeah but on the other side we're smart and know who to vote for.....

If only either my generation would vote in mass numbers like old people or if only old people bothered actually studying and not being hypnotized by Hannity......

 

[hawkeyenick]

I drove from Kansas to put my vote in.

How about you guys stop calling us farmers and lazy fucks so much? There aren't many farmers here, and we face some of the harshest winters in the world other than the poles.

 

[adpierce]

I drove from Kansas to put my vote in.

How about you guys stop calling us farmers and lazy fucks so much? There aren't many farmers here, and we face some of the harshest winters in the world other than the poles.

Pisses me off too... let the ignorant idiots keep believing whatever they want to believe about us. The truth is something they don't want to believe.

 

[Hangly Man]

Right. Especially you console jockeys. Don't assume just because the movement polls well that other people will win it for us. YOUR vote is needed, in NH and everywhere else.

 

[tttar]

Just a number of fundamental flaws with the analysis ...

First, having been the person directly involved with the Letter Writing Campaign, I can tell you nearly 1/3 of all registered voters in Iowa are "no party". Over 700,000 people.

Second, taking the 6% figure and extrapolating it to an entire set of registered voters is an incorrect assumption. You have to realize there are many people who might be Ron Paul supporters, but have never even heard of the guy! Your analysis assumes 100% recognition, which is impossible. Hell, a poll came out today that shows 12% of Americans think Rudy Giuliani is still mayor of NYC!

Third, saying only 17% of Ron Paul supporters went to the caucus is just untrue. Directly tied with the second point above.

To me, the analysis basically says, "if we made more people aware of Ron Paul, more people would vote for him". Uh, yeah ... don't think anyone is denying that.

You've identified one thing I overlooked, but it can be fixed. Anything that appears in a yellow cell can be changed.

If the polls confine themselves to registered Republicans only (and I don't know if they do), and you say there are maybe 30% Independents, you can change the 50% of the VEP I assigned to the Republicans to maybe 35%, and that would make the participation 25.01%.

Also, in my haste, I mislabeled a column as VEP, where I meant to say Republican VEP (or maybe "Republican and Independent Republican-leaning VEP", or whatever). That didn't affect the outcome, but threw some people.

I didn't expect so many people to look at this, and thought I should raise the participation issue in some way before the NH primary.

 

[cheese]

it repeats...