Only 17.51% of RP supporters voted in Iowa. No wonder we were 5th. Learn from stats:

[nosebruise]

your statistics make a lot of assumptions.

i mean the polls even only went to republicans, you cant use the entire "eligible voter" population as your base number.

 

[tttar]

your statistics make a lot of assumptions.

i mean the polls even only went to republicans, you cant use the entire "eligible voter" population as your base number.

I assumed half were Republicans.

I was trying to come up with a meaningful number to compare Ron Paul people's voting participation with the others'.

How else could I have gone about it?

 

[Ozwest]

In Australia, we have compulsory voting.

You may say that's un-democratic, being forced to vote, but all you have to do is sign in that you showed up, and not vote at all. if that's your choice.

Don't worry, you'll be turning out in numbers to sign your national I.D. card. What could be more important than inconvenience?

Stop being bunnies!

 

[The Dane]

You will need to include calculation of independents to find the independent part of the base population, then "likely independent voters" of candidates will be found seperatedly from Republicans and added up in the end.

 

[Ozwest]

I'm sorry, I should shut up, but I can't. Too many of you are spoilt brats.

You require a catered Revolution.

Thank God you've got the technology, cause without it, you're exposed for the piss ants you are.

 

[Ozwest]

Have another cheeseburger!

 

[rp08orbust]

Well what other number can I use to compare them to the 10.11%?

Well, maybe nothing. Some things just can't be extrapolated--they require hard facts.

I would certainly require hard facts before jumping to the conclusion that the younger people on this forum or in the Meet Up groups flaked out on caucus day.

 

[Ozwest]

Well, maybe nothing. Some things just can't be extrapolated--they require hard facts.

I would certainly require hard facts before jumping to the conclusion that the younger people on this forum or in the Meet Up groups flaked out on caucus day.

Why don't you extrapolate those figures?

 

[Ozwest]

I'll extrapolate them for you if you like....

 

[Ozwest]

I just crunched the numbers, and it came up piss weak.

 

[Richie]

Watch it, guys. I'm one of these "slack bastard" young people you speak of. I've donated myself to death, written letters to New Hampshire residents, attended a fund raiser, and spread the message of liberty in a liberty-hostile environment (most of my friends hate the idea). I'm also going to be an election judge to make sure that there's going to be a fair vote count for all candidates (MUCH better and more worthwhile then being a poll watcher), and I registered to vote as a Republican two weeks ago. I'd walk across a pool of lava to vote for Ron Paul. Not all of us are lazy.

 

[Ozwest]

Watch it, guys. I'm one of these "slack bastard" young people you speak of. I've donated myself to death, written letters to New Hampshire residents, attended a fund raiser, and spread the message of liberty in a liberty-hostile environment (most of my friends hate the idea). I'm also going to be an election judge to make sure that there's going to be a fair vote count for all candidates (MUCH better and more worthwhile then being a poll watcher), and I registered to vote as a Republican two weeks ago. I'd walk across a pool of lava to vote for Ron Paul. Not all of us are lazy.

About fricking time! I was thinking you we're all slack bastards.

 

[Thomas Paine]

It's called Getting Out the Vote (GOTV). You spend all the time leading up to an election identifying and persuading voters. Then you spend the day before and the day of the election getting these favorable voters to the polls.

 

[Ozwest]

Richie,

You're welcome to come fishing with me in the deep waters off the West Australian coast.

The rest, who are too lilly livered to reply...

Are shark bait.

 

[tttar]

You will need to include calculation of independents to find the independent part of the base population, then "likely independent voters" of candidates will be found seperatedly from Republicans and added up in the end.

As far as my goal of calculating a number to match the 10.11% (and the previous years' stats you'll find on the last sheet), the voter turnout percentages are the most relevant.

The actual numbers of eligible voters by party in a state aren't that important. They cancel out.

I only wanted to compare Ron Paul participation to non-Ron Paul participation, and magnify the point that we'd better be getting commitments from everyone else who says they like him. Not just from the hardcore.

You guys are great, but too many others I guess just think he's kinda nice, or whatever.

Maybe in a couple of days I'll find the time to be more exact with the population stats.

 

[evadmurd]

Then we blew it because ONLY 17.51% OF OUR PEOPLE SHOWED UP.

I updated my spreadsheet on this, and if the polls were accurate, I think it more or less proves the 17.51% number. (And if the polls UNDERSTATED our support - as we'd been hoping - that even makes it WORSE.)

Good God, people! How are we supposed to win like this?

 

[tttar]

Well, maybe nothing. Some things just can't be extrapolated--they require hard facts.

I would certainly require hard facts before jumping to the conclusion that the younger people on this forum or in the Meet Up groups flaked out on caucus day.

A ballpark figure is really enough to make the point, though.

Average Ron Paul people are more committed, but they unfortunately need to be about 5-6 times more committed.

Look at the other sheets. I've tracked the Meetup groups since August.

I definitely wasn't making the point that people like that don't care. It's the "He seems nice, I like people who say nice things" folks that we need to worry about.

 

[JAlli41]

Im 21 ive voted in 3 elections, thats 3 times more than a lot of 45 year olds, dont blame all of us

 

[Ozwest]

As far as my goal of calculating a number to match the 10.11% (and the previous years' stats you'll find on the last sheet), the voter turnout percentages are the most relevant.

The actual numbers of eligible voters by party in a state aren't that important. They cancel out.

I only wanted to compare Ron Paul participation to non-Ron Paul participation, and magnify the point that we'd better be getting commitments from everyone else who says they like him. Not just from the hardcore.

You guys are great, but too many others I guess just think he's kinda nice, or whatever.

Maybe in a couple of days I'll find the time to be more exact with the population stats.

The most important analysis available, is more analysis, of the hardcore analysis.

 

[tttar]

About fricking time! I was thinking you we're all slack bastards.

C'mon, I assume no one here fits that description.

We're dealing with much larger numbers out there, who I hope we haven't placed more confidence than warranted in.

Hell, if they'd all only give 10 bucks...