Ohio marijuana legalization initiative qualifies for November 2015 ballot

[Mani]

THat was a good "How not to legalize marijuana" movement. When you have legalize MJ supporters who have to vote no for it, when you have libertarians saying it should be voted against it shows what a complete FAIL.

Every other state is going to learn from that horrific campaign. In the long run it will be helpful for the country wide movements as they will put together better amendments and not use idiotic Mr. Bud characters who opponents are saying are the next rendition of Joe Camel.


It's a minor setback for the movement but again, overall everyone learns from this and I think 2016 lots of states trying to pass legalization efforts are going to look back to ohio on what not to do. I think 7-10 states have initiatives in 2016. I have a feeling California, Nevada, Hawaii, will help complete the west coast successfully and I think 1 East Coast state will start the trend, maybe Maine. Maine voted Ron Paul in 2012, has a libertarian streak, and I think they will want to be the state that stands out and becomes the FIRST in the East.

 

[parocks]

THat was a good "How not to legalize marijuana" movement. When you have legalize MJ supporters who have to vote no for it, when you have libertarians saying it should be voted against it shows what a complete FAIL.

Every other state is going to learn from that horrific campaign. In the long run it will be helpful for the country wide movements as they will put together better amendments and not use idiotic Mr. Bud characters who opponents are saying are the next rendition of Joe Camel.


It's a minor setback for the movement but again, overall everyone learns from this and I think 2016 lots of states trying to pass legalization efforts are going to look back to ohio on what not to do. I think 7-10 states have initiatives in 2016. I have a feeling California, Nevada, Hawaii, will help complete the west coast successfully and I think 1 East Coast state will start the trend, maybe Maine. Maine voted Ron Paul in 2012, has a libertarian streak, and I think they will want to be the state that stands out and becomes the FIRST in the East.

The guy running the show in Maine, David Boyer, was a top Ron Paul guy in 2012. I'm pretty confident that he'll get the job done. I expect a win with a bill similar to Colorado. There were 2 bills, the Boyer/MPP bill and another one, the McCarrier one, and both groups were collecting signatures, and as I understand it, they consolidated the efforts in the last month. I believe that Boyer is leading the charge, but the specifics of the bill will the McCarrier bill, which, if I remember right, has better numbers, homegrow numbers are a little higher and possession I think is 2 oz, not 1 oz. The same general gist. Everyone seems pretty pleased about how it's been progressing.

Ohio doesn't even have medical marijuana. Maine has had medical marijuana for years, and marijuana has been decriminalized for years as well. I'm expecting a solid win. Very few wins on anything good these days, but this one should be.

I'd like some state to try the ideal type of "legalization" which I'd say is just to remove marijuana from the state law books. Treat marijuana like an obscure wild flower that no one knows enough about to write legislation about.

I'd like some state to try some super socialist legislation. Free Marijuana. Marijuana cures cancer. Typically cancer "cures" don't work and are very expensive. It would save money if the marijuana was free, and money didn't have to be spent on expensive big pharma solutions. What else does marijuana cure? Painkiller, sure, anti-anxiety, replace big pharma there, stops seizures, etc etc etc.

But I'm not critical at all of what Boyer (who with State Senator Brakey led Maine to a Ron Paul win in 2012) is doing. A series of reasonable pragmatic decisions. A similar law to the best of the laws that have already passed, the Colorado law? Yes, I'll take that. It's a smart move because Maine is a state where a reasonable law will win. Try the "no laws at all" and the "free marijuana" laws in states, like Ohio, that aren't necessarily ahead of the curve on this. Try "no laws at all" in Idaho or Montana or Wyoming. Try "free" in a state where they really like free stuff. The "no laws" and the "free" might not have the excellent chance of passing that Maine's "Colorado-copy" legislation does, but instead of a law that sucks (Ohio's proposed law), you'd have laws that have distinct merit and appeal to constituences beyond those who like monopoly for monopolies sake.

 

[parocks]

If this kind of thing can happen in the rust belt, it can happen anywhere. In 10 years, weed will finally be legal across most of these united states!!!

Finally be legal AGAIN. Most of US history, there were no laws against weed. It was Wilson and FDR who gave us that.

 

[jct74]

So I should probably update this thread with the final results and a few other things.


Final results

100% reporting

Issue 2 - PASSED

[TABLE="width: 200"]
[TR][TD]YES[/TD][TD]

51.58%​

[/TD][TD]

1,587,060​

[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]NO[/TD][TD]

48.42%​

[/TD][TD]

1,489,703​

[/TD][/TR]
[/TABLE]

Issue 3 - FAILED

[TABLE="width: 200"]
[TR][TD]YES[/TD][TD]

35.90%​

[/TD][TD]

1,122,386​

[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]NO[/TD][TD]

64.10%​

[/TD][TD]

2,003,641​

[/TD][/TR]
[/TABLE]


Issue 3 lost by a lot more than most people were expecting, and some people are saying this is a crushing defeat that proves beyond a doubt that Ohioans overwhelmingly reject marijuana legalization. I don't think this is the case. When asked specifically about the subject of marijuana legalization, all 5 polls leading up to election day showed a significant majority of Ohioans do support the concept of marijuana legalization in general.


[TABLE="width: 800"]
[TR][TD]Pollster[/TD][TD]Subject Polled[/TD][TD]

Support​

[/TD][TD]

Oppose​

[/TD][TD]

Lead​

[/TD][TD]

Date​

[/TD][/TR]

[TR][TD]Baldwin Wallace[/TD][TD]marijuana legalization[/TD][TD]

55​

[/TD][TD]

45​

[/TD][TD]

+10​

[/TD][TD]

10/7 - 10/19​

[/TD][/TR]

[TR][TD]WKYC / Kent State[/TD][TD]marijuana legalization[/TD][TD]

58​

[/TD][TD]

32​

[/TD][TD]

+26​

[/TD][TD]

10/6 - 10/8​

[/TD][/TR]

[TR][TD]Quinnipiac[/TD][TD]marijuana legalization[/TD][TD]

53​

[/TD][TD]

44​

[/TD][TD]

+9​

[/TD][TD]

9/25 - 10/5​

[/TD][/TR]

[TR][TD]Quinnipiac[/TD][TD]marijuana legalization[/TD][TD]

52​

[/TD][TD]

44​

[/TD][TD]

+8​

[/TD][TD]

3/17 - 3/28​

[/TD][/TR]

[TR][TD]Quinnipiac[/TD][TD]marijuana legalization[/TD][TD]

51​

[/TD][TD]

44​

[/TD][TD]

+7​

[/TD][TD]

February 2014​

[/TD][/TR]

[/TABLE]


When asked specifically about Issue 3 though, none of the polls showed support above the mid 40's, except for the WKYC poll which seems to be an outlier.

[TABLE="width: 800"]
[TR][TD]Pollster[/TD][TD]Subject Polled[/TD][TD]

Support​

[/TD][TD]

Oppose​

[/TD][TD]

Lead​

[/TD][TD]

Date​

[/TD][/TR]

[TR][TD]Zobgy / BGSU[/TD][TD]Issue 3[/TD][TD]

44​

[/TD][TD]

43​

[/TD][TD]

+1​

[/TD][TD]

10/16 - 10/17​

[/TD][/TR]

[TR][TD]Baldwin Wallace[/TD][TD]Issue 3[/TD][TD]

43​

[/TD][TD]

38​

[/TD][TD]

+5​

[/TD][TD]

10/7 - 10/19​

[/TD][/TR]

[TR][TD]WKYC / Kent State[/TD][TD]Issue 3[/TD][TD]

56​

[/TD][TD]

34​

[/TD][TD]

+22​

[/TD][TD]

10/6 - 10/8​

[/TD][/TR]

[TR][TD]University of Akron[/TD][TD]Issue 3[/TD][TD]

46​

[/TD][TD]

46​

[/TD][TD]

0​

[/TD][TD]

9/1 - 10/1​

[/TD][/TR]

[/TABLE]

The actual election results for Issue 3 turned out even worse than the polling indicated, but I think most of that can be attributed to that fact that turnout in off-year elections usually skews much older and more conservative. Also, people usually end up voting against any ballot initiatives they are unsure about, especially upon showing up to vote and seeing that it is a extremely lengthy constitutional amendment with the word "monopoly" in the title as it appears on the ballot. I think only one of the above polls actually used the word "monopoly" in the poll question. So... I think it is clear that Ohioans do support marijuana legalization according to the polls, but they didn't like Issue 3 for several important reasons, and there were additional factors beyond that which contributed to the abysmal results.


I also think the Issue 3 campaign was good for marijuana legalization in Ohio, even though it was soundly defeated. The Issue 3 campaign blanketed the Ohio airwaves with many millions of dollars of pro-legalization advertising. It wasn't enough to sway voters to vote for Issue 3, but I'm sure it did open some minds to the concept of marijuana legalization and get lots of people talking about it. The more this issue is brought to the forefront, the better.

The Ohio legislature has also now been spurred to at least take up the issue of medical marijuana, which they have refused to make any significant progress on up until this point.

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2015/11/ohio_lawmakers_plan_to_introdu.html
http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2015/11/04/push-for-medical-marijuana.html
http://www.ohio.com/news/break-news...lking-about-legalizing-medicinal-pot-1.637832

It sounds like something might actually get accomplished, but it could also end up being some real watered down crap that doesn't help too many people. We'll see what happens.


As far as future ballot initiatives are concerned, ResponsibleOhio has said they intend to continue the fight for marijuana legalization in Ohio. I'm not sure how that is going to happen though with Issue 3 failing so badly and the passage of Issue 2 getting in the way. They have to come up with something much different or it will certainly fail. And I'm not sure how much their investors are going to want to invest without huge guaranteed profits like Issue 3 would have done.

There are also two other groups in Ohio looking to get a legalization initiative on the ballot in 2016: Legalize Ohio 2016 (also known as Ohioans to End Prohibition) and Responsible Ohioans for Cannabis. I don't know what all the differences are between the two groups and am kind of wondering why they don't just merge. I've heard the initiative that Responsible Ohioans for Cannabis is trying to get on the ballot is more radical in terms of home grow allowances and banning employers from testing for THC metabolites. It seems to me that Legalize Ohio 2016 is the more serious effort with a better chance of getting on the ballot and passing.

 

[jct74]

BTW - If anyone is interested in how the Issue 3 vote was distributed across the state, here is a map:
http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2015/11/how_the_marijuana_vote_lost_ev.html

and a map of the vote across the Cleveland area:
http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2015/11/cleveland_says_yes_to_issue_3.html


--

Also, for some perspective on the loss I thought this piece of information from Russ Belville was pretty interesting:

Ohio just became the seventh state to ever vote on marijuana legalization. California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Alaska, and Colorado. That’s all. Ohio just joined a very select club.

Only Washington in that club passed it on their first try; I-502 in 2012 got 55.7 percent. Alaska got 44.25 percent in 2004* and Colorado got 41.08 percent in 2006, and they both had medical marijuana on the books, like Washington. Nevada, Oregon, and California all failed twice; Nevada got 39.13 percent in 2002 and 44.08 percent in 2006. Oregon got just 26.33 percent 1986, pre-medical marijuana, and 46.58 percent in 2012, when Washington and Colorado were crushing it with over 55 percent. California got just 33.5 percent in pre-decriminalization 1972 and then 46.5 percent 2010 with Prop 19.

So, Ohio, 35.84 percent with a controversial business model, terrible public relations, confusing language and conflicting amendments, before you have medical marijuana, in an off-off election year? Bravo, you’re ahead of where California and Oregon started and three to nine points behind where Colorado, Alaska, and Nevada were just a decade ago.

http://marijuanapolitics.com/perspective-from-ground-zero-of-ohio-marijuana-legalization-loss/