Official presidential election results thread - Nov. 8, 2016

The math is off. If 1.53M ballots were returned and 652380 are R and 645020 are D, that leaves 232600 that are independent. That's only 15% but this guy says it is 30%. If the independents are only 15% of the returned ballots and give Hillary a 2.7 point lead that means they are breaking for Hillary by about 80% to 20%. Not realistic.

SovereignMN said:
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slat...ay_live_blog_results_exit_polls_and_more.html

Slate’s VoteCastr project—which will provide real-time estimates of turnout in seven swing states on Election Day—will launch in earnest later this morning. But with early voting now over, VoteCastr has enough info to make its first estimates of where things stand in Colorado, a state where the vast majority of ballots are cast by mail (and where VoteCastr won’t have poll trackers in the field).


Based on the 1.53 million early votes VoteCastr has run through its model, Clinton leads Trump by 2.7 points, 46.3 percent to 43.6 percent. VoteCastr expects a total of 2.815 million total votes will be cast in the state by the end of the day, meaning the early votes we have so far represent 54.4 percent of the total expected vote. I want to be clear: VoteCastr isn’t predicting that Hillary Clinton will win Colorado, only that she currently has a higher projected share of known ballots cast than Donald Trump.


I’ve already explained in detail how VoteCastr makes its projections, but here is the background on how it treats early vote totals. Local officials collect and report information about who voted early in each state, and VoteCastr then compares that public info with its own private early voter files. To understand how this works in practice, consider my early ballot, which I cast in Iowa City last month. Though VoteCastr didn’t know who I voted for, it can make an educated guess by combining its extensive pre-Election Day polling with microtargeting models that take into consideration those things it does know about me: my age, race, and party registration. VoteCastr tells me the model believes there’s a 97 percent chance I voted for Clinton. (For what it’s worth, they were right.) When my name showed up on the list of people who voted early in the Hawkeye State, VoteCastr used that number to fill in the blank.


These voter preference estimates allow VoteCastr to make more specific forecasts about the early voting split than most other modelers, which simply sort returned ballots by party affiliation in those states where that information is available. According to the early voting information released Monday morning in Colorado, for instance, 652,380 registered Republicans had returned ballots compared to 645,020 registered Democrats who did the same—which, as the Denver Post noted, equated to a 7,360-vote Republican advantage. Those numbers, however, are ignoring a sizeable piece of the electoral puzzle: unaffiliated voters or those registered with a third party, which accounted for roughly 30 percent of returned ballots. That’s nearly a third of ballots—easily enough to swing the state—whose votes are ignored when you sort only by party.

The VoteCastr model, meanwhile, makes predictions for each and every ballot, regardless of party affiliation or lack thereof, and therefore can be far more accurate.
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John F Kennedy III said:
Since this is the OFFICIAL election thread, I am OFFICIALLY disgusted that this election comes down to two sacks of authoritarian garbage. I'm about to go vote and haven't yet decided if I'll write in Ron Paul, Vermin Supreme, Charles Manson, or Vladimir Putin.
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I would go with Vladimir Putin. Putin will MAGA ...
 
updating feed for MI, not sure how 'good' it is:

http://www.freep.com/story/news/pol...dential-election-results-exit-polls/93465200/

10:10 a.m. - Two hour delay in Detroit precinct

In Precinct 134 in Detroit’s West Village area, the machine that counts the ballots was not working from the very beginning of the morning, causing confusion and anger among voters. Workers at the precinct told voters they could either leave their ballot in a secure box below the machine for it to be counted later or wait for a technician to arrive to fix the machine. About 45 people, including Marilyn King, 62, of Detroit, decided to wait. Latricia Pritchett, 45, of Detroit, said experiences like this lead to lower voter turnout. “Some people don’t have transportation and do everything that they can to get here …and the process is already lengthy, so when you have to sit here and wait another hour just to insert your ballot it’s just ridiculous.” A technician arrived at 8:56 a.m. and workers began processing ballots about 10 minutes later. — Brent Snavely, Staff Writer
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Luntz didn't give DJT much a chance but

 
That slate votecastr thing has Gary Johnson at 7.4% in CO, 3.5% in FL, 5.6% IA, 5.4% NV, 5.6% OH, 4.4% PA, 4.7% WI.
 
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