NV CAUCUS-GOERS: Please post your observations / live results in this thread!

[dancjm]

we may see dr. ron paul pick up a second place win in nevada once clark and lander counties repeat their recounts.

why are they repeating recounts?

thanks btw

 

[GridNS]

I'm confused. Just woke up in the UK here, can someone fill me in on the situation?

Sadly, Dr. Paul has been sliding from second, to deeper into third with Slimy Newt in second place.

Newt is at 26%
Dr.Paul is at 18%

 

[sailingaway]

Sadly, Dr. Paul has been sliding from second, to deeper into third with Slimy Newt in second place.

Newt is at 26%
Dr.Paul is at 18%

that was a while back. Ron will gain back some in Clark from what was 'unofficially' released earlier, the question is whether it will be enough to take 2d. It will be close.

Nate Silver at Fivethirtyeight put together (imperfect) entrance polls from Clark with the amounts then reported and came out with Ron being ultimately about 1% down from Grinch. But Ron won that special caucus set up by Gingrich's lobbyist backer, and if we are down one percent and won that, overwhelmingly, and the polls were pretending Ron would be a distant FOURTH, I'll take it and look for our 'breakout' in one of the other caucus states. Maybe Maine.

There are people from each campaign watching the vote, and we have the unofficial results to compare them to, later, so I'm going to call it a night.

 

[dancjm]

Sadly, Dr. Paul has been sliding from second, to deeper into third with Slimy Newt in second place.

Newt is at 26%
Dr.Paul is at 18%

thanks. is there still hope for second?

 

[ssjevot]

I knew it was only 5.8% of precincts but assumed it was representative of total votes also. So my final % for RP is too low then. Do you know the approx % of total votes counted in Clark?

I'll be conservative and say about 4%, this is basing Clark off about a total of around 17,000 votes.

 

[Aratus]

yes. check out 1836's posts!

 

[parocks]

thanks. is there still hope for second?

yes. 44% of precincts are in. Those are rural. Most people in Nevada live in Clark County. That's where Las Vegas is. We won big in the special for Gingrich night caucuses in Las Vegas. Picked up 130 or so on Gingrich in that one caucus alone. If Clark County clearly prefers Ron Paul to Newt Gingrich I think we'll be in second.

 

[Gazoo]

Don't know if this has come up already, but this report says 25% of the turn out were voters from the Latter Day Saints. And I was surprised to learn that there are more churches per capita in Nevada then any other state. Not enough Episcopalians, I guess.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/02/nevada-caucuses-mormons-aplenty/

 

[socal]

I'll be conservative and say about 4%, this is basing Clark off about a total of around 17,000 votes.

Using 4% of Clark reporting and extrapolating I get,

Romney...48.9%
Gingrich...20.8%
Paul........20.0%
Santorum.10.3%

 

[Gravik]

Feb 04, 2012 (45% of precincts reporting)
Mitt Romney 7,020 42.6%
Newt Gingrich 4,287 26%
Ron Paul 3,043 18.5%
Rick Santorum 2,136 13%
Other 0 0%

 

[opinionatedfool]

Using 4% of Clark reporting and extrapolating I get,

Romney...48.9%
Gingrich...20.8%
Paul........20.0%
Santorum.10.3%

Google has 5.8% reporting...

http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results?gclid=CLnH042_ha4CFQQBQAodNTSp2w

 

[Mark37snj]

I figured out why Romney is getting so many votes overall. Im looking at CNN rebroadcast and its filled with chicks, and of course if there are women there then that means the guys are sure to follow. They are doing it to score points with their girlfriends.

 

[Sarge]

I woke up to get a glass of water. Props to those that showed up at the Adelson's caucus. I am proud of you.

As for the recount, without giving the first total, I just can't believe what I am reading. Nevada GOP blows it again.

 

[socal]

Google has 5.8% reporting...

http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results?gclid=CLnH042_ha4CFQQBQAodNTSp2w

I used 5.8% in my 1st calculation, but poster ssjevot pointed out that it was 5.8% of precincts but only approx 4% of votes, so I used that lower figure in the post you responded to. That gave a slightly higher % of vote figure for RP. You can see my earlier calc by following the posts backwards.

 

[Chowder]

So they still haven't counted all the votes yet? Interesting.

 

[GunnyFreedom]

So they still haven't counted all the votes yet? Interesting.

No, it seems they are working on their third full count, they just stopped reporting their progress at 5.8% precincts reporting in Clark County.

Which, frankly, sounds weird to me. I'm not pulling the fraud chain, but something is not adding up to be sure.

 

[Mark37snj]

No, it seems they are working on their third full count, they just stopped reporting their progress at 5.8% precincts reporting in Clark County.

Which, frankly, sounds weird to me. I'm not pulling the fraud chain, but something is not adding up to be sure.

Official Fraud Chain <----- you know you wana, come on, it won't bite, its your friend

 

[Lord Xar]

No, it seems they are working on their third full count, they just stopped reporting their progress at 5.8% precincts reporting in Clark County.

Which, frankly, sounds weird to me. I'm not pulling the fraud chain, but something is not adding up to be sure.

Are there no honest or RP friendly people in the GOP for that county that know the results if they are counting tor the 3rd time?

Perhaps Ron won by a bigger margin and they want the Superbowl to downplay the results, since RP came in second... just hypothesizing.

 

[akalucas]

I'm thinking maybe its a close call between gingrich and paul if they were to add up the totals so they are making sure....i don't know

 

[GunnyFreedom]

I'm thinking maybe its a close call between gingrich and paul if they were to add up the totals so they are making sure....i don't know

That's my guess. if two candidates are tied or one vote apart then someone is going to want to make extra-damn-triple-sure they get the count right. What doesn't add up is that a prospective tie is clearly not coming out of Clark County...soooo ?

Will the Clark Co results result in a near-tie or actual tie for the whole state? Statistically that would seem possible. The recount panic seemed to kick off immediately after the "special" evening caucus results were reported.

My guess is someone did the math, saw that Clark was leading to either a dead tie or ridiculously close for 2nd place, and decided they want to make 100% dam sure that Clark County doesn't get embarrassed by misreporting the ranking to place and show.

That's just a guess of course.