Now McCain to skip Iowa straw poll

[Pedrique]

What do we make of this? (esp. you, Dave)

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/mccain-to-also-skip-iowa-straw-poll-2007-06-06.html

I know. They're running scared from RP!

But seriously, if Romney follows suit then what does that mean for the straw poll - would they still do it? And if so would main stream media claim it has any meaning?

What are the REAL reasons they might be backing out? Anti-war sentiment stronger than expected in their various meetings in Iowa?

 

[Thor]

If you see the post from aravoth
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=2325

Then it is no surprise they are doing this. It is a tactic to difuse the momentum. But if we win anyway, it will be top billing for a much less covered event that has a historical significance.

 

[slantedview]

If you see the post from aravoth
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=2325

Then it is no surprise they are doing this. It is a tactic to difuse the momentum. But if we win anyway, it will be top billing for a much less covered event that has a historical significance.

I agree with your analysis.

 

[qednick]

Is it just me or does anyone else think McCain looks like he's made out of play dough?

 

[amonasro]

Is it just me or does anyone else think McCain looks like he's made out of play dough?

He also has a weird lump on his left cheek. During the debate my wife was like "it looks like he has cancer. I don't want a president with cancer!" Then I said it's probably botox or some kind of fake skin to contain his reptilian self

 

[Original_Intent]

I actually think it is due to disfiguration from his treatment as a POW. I totally disagree with him as a politician, but he definitely has paid a serious price in the service of our country.

 

[qednick]

Either that or it's an old egg that someone threw at him and he never washed it off.

 

[Dave]

What do we make of this? (esp. you, Dave)

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/mccain-to-also-skip-iowa-straw-poll-2007-06-06.html

I know. They're running scared from RP!

But seriously, if Romney follows suit then what does that mean for the straw poll - would they still do it? And if so would main stream media claim it has any meaning?

What are the REAL reasons they might be backing out? Anti-war sentiment stronger than expected in their various meetings in Iowa?

Wow! I hadn't heard McCain, too. Here's what I think:

How a candidate performs in Iowa is all about expectations. It doesn't matter where you finish in Iowa (within reason) but rather where you finish relative to expectations. This tells me that Giuliani and McCain know they're losing traction in Iowa and to avoid the embarrassment of a poor showing at the Ames Straw Poll they're backing out now (this is the same reason that there have been some internal rumblings in the Hillary campaign about skipping Iowa entirely). If their situations don't improve I suspect they will eventually skip the caucuses as well - a high-risk strategy that has never worked in the past.

I'm not sure what this means for the Ames Straw Poll - anyone who thought they were going to do well there obviously wants it to still happen but 2 of the 3 big boys are sabotaging it. I'm sure this has raised eyebrows at Dr. Paul HQ but just imagine the scene at the HQ of the others like Romney, T. Thompson, and Brownback - people who were counting on a good showing in Ames to propel them forward. Now it won't mean nearly as much, and could even implode. I'll bet the Fred Thompson campaign is tickled with this - now they won't be missing a big opportunity to promote themselves.

The dynamics in Iowa changed in a BIG way today. I expect the next few weeks to be telling as this shakes out.

 

[IrrigatedPancake]

I think this would reflect badly on the republican party. It seems like it only cares about what some of the states think about who should be their republican representative.

I say, start blogging that by letting candidates skip certain primaries, they are insulting the people of those states.

If enough commotion can be raised about that idea, it might spill over into the mainstream media, at least as an "internet buzz" story.

 

[Therion]

IIRC...

Nobody has ever won after skipping the straw poll.

Now my question is, do we have to win a plurality or a majority to take a state in the primary? Fewer competitors could be bad if Rudy, McCain and Romney aren't taking votes from each other.

 

[vipero00]

This is campaign gamesmanship. What they have concluded is that the potential down side is greater than the up side. They want to minimize their losses and maximize their gains.

This is a great strategy if you are playing a game. Although this isn't a game for the electorate you have to remember that they are polititians 1st so to them it is a game.

 

[SeanEdwards]

Is it just me or does anyone else think McCain looks like he's made out of play dough?

He does look odd! He starts making these gestures with his arms, and it looks like his suit is extra stiff or something. Both arms go up together, in this wierd robotic motion. Apparently, he has literally become some kind of puppet! Paul should run over during the next debate and see if there are wires that come off McCain's body and lead off to a hidden puppet master.

 

[Dave]

He does look odd! He starts making these gestures with his arms, and it looks like his suit is extra stiff or something. Both arms go up together, in this wierd robotic motion. Apparently, he has literally become some kind of puppet! Paul should run over during the next debate and see if there are wires that come off McCain's body and lead off to a hidden puppet master.

He's physically unable to raise his arms any higher due to the beatings he took as a POW.

 

[Dave]

Romney claims victory

This comes from Romney HQ. I think they're right - McCain and Giuliani knew they were going to get smacked in Ames.


Boston, MA – Today, Romney for President spokesman Kevin Madden issued the following statement on the Ames Straw Poll:

"Governor Romney has put in the time, built the organization and communicated his message to the voters of Iowa. It's a message focused on bringing conservative change to Washington, and it is resonating with Iowa voters because it matches his record of accomplishment as governor.

"Our plan all along has been to play in the Iowa straw poll, and that hasn't changed. Campaigns that have decided to abandon Ames are likely doing so out of a recognition that their organizations are outmatched and their message falls flat with Republican voters in Iowa.

"It looks as if we just beat those campaigns in Iowa two months earlier than we had planned on beating them."

 

[Thor]

If Romney stays in, and Paul beats him, it will be powerful even without Rudy or McCain.

 

[lucky]

I expect Guiliani to do ok out of the northeast and california but not the south and midwest. Romney I expect also to do badly in Ames. McCain I would think could hold his own there. Ron Paul I think would do well there but it takes a lot of money there for a small amount of voters. Ron Paul has little money right now. Recognition though could help in other states.

 

[X_805]

Would Fred Thompson be participating in this straw poll?

 

[enan]

That's what I'm thinking. Maybe they've caught something upwind that we have yet to see. Fred Thompson's going to be the juggernaut to beat, methinks. He's already being hailed as the reunifier of the republican party.

The moment Fred Thompson steps in, Ron Paul needs to go on the attack.

 

[X_805]

That's what I'm thinking. Maybe they've caught something upwind that we have yet to see. Fred Thompson's going to be the juggernaut to beat, methinks. He's already being hailed as the reunifier of the republican party.

The moment Fred Thompson steps in, Ron Paul needs to go on the attack.

I think Ron Paul's strongest message to both the Republican base and the general electorate is that of individual freedom. If he can send that message out there, no other candidate can touch him. He seems to have been busy on the war recently to make himself known, but his stances on immigration, sound money, and individual liberty are things he needs to profess more to make him more rounded out.

 

[james1906]

i expect brownback and t. thompson to make good showings in iowa since they come from neighboring states.

iowa has had an anti-war tradition, and that can only benefit ron. tancredo and maybe hunter could make an impact with concerns about illegal immigration, considering many food processing plants have hire illegal workers. huckabee and gilmore will crash and burn. if brownback or t. thompson don't show well, they're done too.